The 2015 Hall of Fame Class: Ballot Trackers and Projections
The results of this year’s Hall of Fame voting will be announced at 2pm ET. What this post isn’t is a manifesto on who ought and ought not enter the Hall of Fame. What it is is a survey of four useful tools for understanding which players on this year’s ballot are most likely to enter — or most deserving of entry — into the Hall.
Ballot-tracking estimates are current as of this morning.
Name
JAWS (Link)
Explanation
Designed by former Baseball Prospectus and current SI.com writer Jay Jaffe to “improve the Hall of Fame’s standards, or at least to maintain them rather than erode them,” a Jaffe Wins Above Replacement Score (or, JAWS) is calculated by taking the average of a player’s career WAR and his seven-year peak WAR (not necessarily in consecutive years).
The players listed below are merely those who’ve produced a higher JAWS score than the average such total at the relevant position (denoted by Avg at Pos). By definition, a number of extant Hall of Famers possess JAWS scores below that particular threshold. Even using this higher standard, however, one finds that 12 players are technically “qualified,” according to JAWS — or, two more than a voter can include on his ballot.
Who’s In (JAWS, Avg at Pos)
Jeff Bagwell (63.9, 54.2)
Barry Bonds (117.6, 53.3)
Roger Clemens (103.3, 61.8)
Randy Johnson (82.0, 61.8)
Edgar Martinez (56.0, 55.0)
Pedro Martinez (71.1, 61.8)
Mike Mussina (63.8, 61.8)
Mike Piazza (51.2, 43.1)
Tim Raines (55.6, 53.3)
Curt Schilling (64.5, 61.8)
Alan Trammell (57.5, 54.7)
Larry Walker (58.6, 58.1)
Name
Ryan Thibs’ HoF Tracker (Link)
Explanation
Tracks those Hall of Fame ballots which have been made public, publishes results of each individual ballot in spreadsheet form.
Who’s In (% of Ballots)
Craig Biggio (80%)
Randy Johnson (99%)
Pedro Martinez (98%)
Mike Piazza (79%)
John Smoltz (87%)
Name
The 2015 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo! (Link)
Explanation
Similar to Thibs’ Tracker, the Gizmo tracks those Hall of Fame ballots which have been made public and publishes results in aggregate (although without listing individual ballots).
Who’s In (% of Ballots)
Craig Biggio (84%)
Randy Johnson (99%)
Pedro Martinez (98%)
Mike Piazza (76%)
John Smoltz (87%)
Name
Tango Tiger’s HoF Estimate (Link)
Explanation
The author of The Book uses data both from the Ryan Thibs’ Tracker and the Gizmo, but adjusts for certain variables — including the presence of either Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens on public ballots and the average number of votes per public ballot — to make certain assumptions about those ballots which haven’t been made public.
Who’s In (% of Ballots)
Craig Biggio (79%)
Randy Johnson (96%)
Pedro Martinez (96%)
John Smoltz (84%)
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Once again, I find myself thinking that whoever leaves Pedro Martinez off their ballot should either have a damn good explanation for it (and “nobody should get in unanimously” and “nobody should get in on the first ballot” don’t even come CLOSE to counting) or should lose their voting privileges. Pedro is just the latest example of a player whom anyone with an EEG that doesn’t look like Nebraska should agree belongs in the HoF, and anyone who doesn’t vote for him on the first opportunity clearly either is a gibbering idiot or isn’t taking the ballot seriously.
I agree he’s an inner circle, no-brainer first ballot guy.
However, I would make allowance for that writer from Minnesota who intentionally left Pedro and the Big Unit off his ballot because he knew they were shoo-ins to get elected, and wanted to use his 10 votes on guys who weren’t sure things. That’s how bad things have gotten with the HOF voting rules – I would actually consider THIS to be a legitimately damn good explanation.
Depending on who he put on his list, I’d agree.
Taken to its logical conclusion, that would cause Pedro and RJ to miss the 75% threshold.
THAT might induce anarchy. It would be kind of awesome.
Maybe he’s the one that voted for Darin Erstad.