The Astros Have a Lance McCullers Problem
With a 17 game lead in the AL West, the Astros are almost certainly going to the postseason. But as they figure out what to do before tomorrow’s trade deadline, and weigh the costs of potential upgrades, it is becoming pretty clear that they should have some concerns about Lance McCullers.
Their #2 starter was lights out to begin the year, but on June 12th, the Astros put him on the DL with a back problem. It sounded like the kind of semi-fictional injury that teams have used to give starters a break with the new 10-day disabled list, and not something that the team should be all that worried about, despite McCullers’ long history of arm problems. But after another lousy outing today, it’s worth noting that McCullers has looked nothing like his early-season self since returning from the DL.
| Dates | IP | H | BB | HBP | K | ERA- | FIP- | xFIP- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Through June 12th | 77 | 58 | 23 | 5 | 89 | 61 | 67 | 62 |
| Since June 24th | 29 | 42 | 13 | 5 | 29 | 175 | 69 | 90 |
Because he hasn’t surrendered a home run in any of his six starts since returning from the DL, his FIP still looks fine, but everything else is a mess. His 9% walk rate doesn’t look awful, but once you add in the five HBPs, he’s putting 13% of the batters he faced on base without forcing them to swing the bat. More worryingly, his strikeout rate over that stretch is just 20%, below the league average, and that includes him racking up 14 strikeouts in his first two starts off the DL; he has struck out just 17 of 100 batters in his last four starts.
Coming into today, batters were hitting .387/.472/.492 off McCullers in July.
Today, the Tigers hit .363/.500/.409 against him.
Some of his recent struggles are just BABIP related, but McCullers’ command has basically disappeared over the last month, and when he’s behind in the count, he can’t get guys to chase his curveball out of the zone. Obviously, he could find his command again before October, and you don’t want to overreact to a few bad starts in a row, especially with a playoff spot all but guaranteed. But given McCullers’ long list of health issues and his struggles since returning from the disabled list, the Astros should probably be a bit more motivated to add a starter before tomorrow’s deadline.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Another fragile metrosexual Astros pitcher. When was the last time a Houston pitcher logged 200 plus innings in a year? Earlier this year, I recall McCullers ridiculing a blogger for suggesting that he belonged in the bullpen. Guess this blogger was right! The Houston bullpen is horrible and it has to be overhauled if a WS ring is desired. A SP and TWO relievers are needed by trading deadline. You can rest assured this will not happen.
Do you approach other hobbies with such rage? Seems exhausting. Perhaps you suffer from low testosterone. That’s my pro tip for you: see an endocrinologist.
McCullers is that you?!?!?! Perhaps you should approach your pitching outings with a bit more rage. Maybe you have a thyroid problem and not an arm problem.
Low T!
Dallas Keuchel led the leauge in innings pitched with 232 in 2015. That was the same year he won the Cy Young Award. Collin McHugh also threw more than 200 innings that year. So, the answer to your first question would be two years ago.
Well this is perfect then, McCullers will be their big bullpen add and then they only need to trade for a real manly-man SP!
Man, IAS, this is not the site for you. There are lots of places where people call players and other people names. But here most people act like adults. When you’re ready to be a grownup, come back.
Also, in addition to ditching the insults and ignorance, you really want to avoid using the passive voice, which you have done twice here.