The ALCS is supposed to kick off in Baltimore tonight, but there’s a slight problem; meteorologists in the area are calling for a 100% chance of rain this evening. From the Baltimore Sun’s story on the weather:

The 100 percent rain chance forecast “doesn’t mean it’ll be raining the entire time, but there will be showers in the area,” said Greg Schoor, another weather service meteorologist. Schoor said he expects light to moderate rain — “just enough to wet the ground kind of rain”, he said.

But there is also a chance bands of more moderate to heavy rain could pass through, he said. It’s impossible to predict where those might be.

Along with the rain, winds and air temperatures are forecast to be cold. Highs could just barely crack the 60-degree mark in the afternoon, with temperatures down in the 50s by game time and a cold northeast wind, Schoor said.

It seems to not even be a question of whether tonight’s game will be cold and wet; the question instead seems to be how cold, how wet, and how long will they be able to play. Game time is 8:00 pm eastern, with “steady rain” predicted from 10 pm to 2 am. Given the pace of MLB postseason games — the Orioles three division series games against Detroit each took almost exactly 3 hours and 42 minutes, while the Royals three games averaged 3 hours and 51 minutes — this game won’t end much before midnight, which means the last few hours could be either be played in a significant rain or might not be played at all.

So, this brings up a question for the managers: do you risk throwing your best starter in a game that seems likely to have some kind of delay? This is especially important to the Royals, who have a significant gap between their #1 starter and the rest of their rotation, and could be at a disadvantage if James Shields is forced out after just three or four innings tonight.

If ever there was a night to lead off with your relievers, and then go to your starter afterwards, this might be the night. It’s almost certainly too radical for Ned Yost to do, but if we think there’s a strong chance at a rain delay this evening, leading with Frasor-Finnegan-Herrera-Davis for the first few hours, then letting Shields go through his normal warm-up while the tarp is on the field, might be the best chance at getting 18 outs from him tonight.

Of course, meteorology isn’t an exact science either, and there might not end up being a delay at all. Best guess is both teams play it straight hope for the best, and if so, tonight’s game could really become a battle of the bullpens.