Wil Myers Reportedly Heading to San Diego
Just two years after getting shipped out of Kansas City, Wil Myers is reportedly on the move again. This time, he’s going to San Diego in a fascinating three way trade that looks to create more questions than it answers.
First, the most updated details, as we know them, via Mark Topkin.
Hearing #Rays are down to 2 scenarios on Myers trade, waiting to hear if #Nats are in or out.
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) December 17, 2014
Either way, #Rays said to give up Myers, Hanigan and 2 low minor-lgrs, and get back Rivera, B.Smith, Bauers from #Padres. Then ….
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) December 17, 2014
If #Nats are in, #Rays under these scenarios to get Souza and A-ball LHP. If #Nats out, #Rays said get J. Ross, Trea Turner from #Padres
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) December 17, 2014
Trea Turner was #Padres first-round pick so if he was in #Rays or #Nats deal he would have to be a PTNBL
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) December 17, 2014
As best as we can sort it out, it looks like the deal might be something like this.
San Diego gets Wil Myers, Ryan Hanigan, and pitching prospect Jose Castillo.
Tampa Bay gets Steven Souza, Rene Rivera, and prospects Burch Smith and Jake Bauers.
Washington gets Trea Turner and Joe Ross
If the Nationals part of the deal doesn’t happen, Souza would stay in WAS and TB would keep Ross and Turner.
The Padres get a young right-handed hitter who is supposed to be a future slugger, but he hasn’t shown that kind of power in the big leagues as of yet. And while Myers certainly still has enough upside to develop into what he was projected to be, this is a bit of an odd fit for San Diego, who already had Seth Smith in one corner and is close to acquiring Matt Kemp to play in the other corner. Something will have to give in SD’s crowded outfield, whether it’s Smith getting moved or Myers potentially heading to yet another team.
For the Rays, this is a bit more cut-and-dry. Souza is exactly their kind of player, an underrated prospect whom the projections adore, and they pick up a few additional pieces in exchange for making a perceived downgrade in right field. Souza destroyed Triple-A last year and Steamer has him as Myers equal for 2015.
| Name | PA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Souza | 600 | 117 | 11.7 | -10.1 | 2.1 |
| Wil Myers | 600 | 115 | 10.0 | -8.2 | 2.3 |
He is a little bit older and hasn’t yet hit in the big leagues, but he comes with one extra year of team control, which is always valuable to the Rays. While the perceived gap between Myers and Souza is likely quite high, given that Souza has never been ranked as a top prospect, the forecasts think that this isn’t actually a huge step back for Tampa Bay. Even if you think the projections are too optimistic for Souza or too pessimistic for Myers, the Rays get a few additional minor pieces to offset some of that gap.
The Nationals seem to be the third team in this deal simply because the Rays wanted Souza as a Myers replacement; for them, this trade just moves some prospects around. Souza was blocked in Washington by Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper, so the Nationals turned him into a couple of pieces they’re more likely to be able to use. Ross gives them more pitching depth in case they end up trading an arm like Jordan Zimmermann, while Turner will slot in as Ian Desmond’s long-term replacement at shortstop.
We’ll have a full write-up (or two) on this once everything is official. My early take is that this is a fair-ish deal for all involved, pending what San Diego does to clear their new outfield logjam. The Rays seem to be betting on Souza’s projections, the Padres are betting on Myers power developing, while the Nationals are betting that two good prospects slightly further from the majors are better than one who is big league ready.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I think this is a prime example where we really need to look at a distribution of outcomes instead of the mean projection. Maybe the distribution wouldn’t make much of a difference in the discussion, but it seems overly simplistic to look at the mean and say that Souza/Myers are equal. Also, as Ennis said in his interview with Eno, we need qualitative (scouting) information to judge this better.
I agree. I wish more projections systems would also release 75% and 25% projections at least instead of only their 50% projections. it would let us get a clearer picture of the distribution for talents, i.e. the “upside” and the “floor”