KATOH Projections for the Top 200 Prospects

This morning, Kiley McDaniel rolled out his much-anticipated FanGraphs Top 200 prospect List. If you haven’t had a chance to look through it yet, I strongly recommend that you do so. As a complement to Kiley’s rankings, I’ll be taking a quick look at how the players he ranked grade out according to KATOH — my methodology for projecting prospects’ career trajectories using solely minor league statistics.

I’ll start with a bit of a primer on the system. In sum, KATOH uses a series of statistical regressions that look at a prospect’s age and league-adjusted minor league stats. After taking all of this data into account, it spits out probabilities that a prospect will reach certain WAR thresholds through age 28. If you’re interested in a more nitty-gritty, technical explanation of how KATOH works, feel free to check out my pieces on KATOH for hitters and pitchers over at The Hardball Times.

Before diving into the list, I’d like to point out that KATOH is not intended to replace the scouting aspect of prospect evaluation. Statistical analysis is an important tool in player evaluation, but traditional scouting is also a very important piece of the puzzle, especially for minor leaguers who are still learning the fundamentals of baseball. As a result, KATOH’s projections are likely a bit low on raw, toolsy players, and is probably too high on guys who reached their upsides at a young age. Still, despite its flaws, KATOH tackles prospect evaluation from an objective point of view, which I think can be useful in identifying statistical factors that may have been overlooked by traditional prospect evaluations. Do not take these projections as gospel; they are simply alternative perspectives provided through the sole lens of a player’s performance.

With all of that in mind, here’s a look at how Kiley’s 142 ranked prospects correlate with KATOH’s forecasts. Note that this graphic only includes players who logged at least 200 plate appearances or 200 batters faced in 2014:

I think the trend is pretty clear. On average, the prospects ranked from 50 on back receive very similar projections; somewhere in the range of +3 WAR through age 28, meaning that they are forecast to have little or no impact at the big league level. But the projected WARs start to increase in a hurry once you get into the top 50, as higher-end prospects both reach their ceilings more often and are better players when they do.

I’ll be diving into some of the cases where KATOH disagrees with our list later this week. But for now, here’s each player on our Top 200, along with their KATOH projections. Keep in mind that the algorithm only considers what took place during the 2014 season, so players who sat out all of 2014 — like Miguel Sano — do not have KATOH projections. Projections that were calculated using fewer than 200 plate appearances or batters faced are marked with an asterisk (*). Again, absolutely not gospel, but perhaps interesting to look at.

Rank	Player	Position	Team	FV	KATOH WAR thru age 28
1	Kris Bryant	3B	CHC	70	16.0
2	Byron Buxton	CF	MIN	70	2.3*
3	Addison Russell	SS	CHC	65	13.1
4	Julio Urias	LHP	LA	65	12.2
5	Carlos Correa	SS	HOU	65	7.4
6	Corey Seager	3B	LA	65	7.9
7	Lucas Giolito	RHP	WSH	65	5.0
8	Carlos Rodon	LHP	CHW	65	7.9*
9	Blake Swihart	C	BOS	60	4.3
10	J.P. Crawford	SS	PHI	60	4.4
11	Joc Pederson	CF	LA	60	18.3
12	Tyler Glasnow	RHP	PIT	60	6.9
13	Jorge Soler	RF	CHC	60	15.6
14	Francisco Lindor	SS	CLE	60	8.8
15	Miguel Sano	3B	MIN	60	N/A
16	Joey Gallo	3B	TEX	60	11.0
17	Daniel Norris	LHP	TOR	60	5.0
18	Mark Appel	RHP	HOU	60	1.7
19	Noah Syndergaard	RHP	NYM	60	11.5
20	Alex Jackson	RF	SEA	60	3.8*
21	Kyle Schwarber	LF	CHC	60	6.1
22	Dylan Bundy	RHP	BAL	60	2.0*
23	Eduardo Rodriguez	LHP	BOS	60	4.3
24	Jose Berrios	RHP	MIN	60	7.0
25	Robert Stephenson	RHP	CIN	60	2.2
26	Luis Severino	RHP	NYY	60	7.2
27	Chi-Chi Gonzalez	RHP	TEX	60	1.7
28	Jon Gray	RHP	COL	60	2.3
29	Jake Thompson	RHP	TEX	55	4.5
30	Austin Meadows	CF	PIT	55	6.9*
31	David Dahl	CF	COL	55	4.4
32	Archie Bradley	RHP	ARZ	55	5.7
33	Henry Owens	LHP	BOS	55	6.2
34	Ozhaino Albies	SS	ATL	55	10.6
35	Manuel Margot	CF	BOS	55	7.7
36	Hunter Harvey	RHP	BAL	55	5.0
37	Sean Manaea	LHP	KC	55	2.3
38	Maikel Franco	3B	PHI	55	6.3
39	Jesse Winker	LF	CIN	55	6.5
40	Kevin Plawecki	C	NYM	55	3.2
41	Matt Wisler	RHP	SD	55	5.2
42	Eddie Butler	RHP	COL	55	0.8
43	Rio Ruiz	3B	ATL	55	3.2
44	Jose Peraza	2B	ATL	55	8.5
45	Tim Anderson	SS	CHW	55	2.2
46	Nomar Mazara	RF	TEX	55	5.7
47	Braden Shipley	RHP	ARZ	55	1.6
48	Rafael Devers	3B	BOS	55	8.7*
49	Hunter Renfroe	RF	SD	55	1.8
50	Andrew Heaney	LHP	LAA	55	4.1
51	Aaron Nola	RHP	PHI	55	2.6
52	Steven Souza	RF	TB	55	5.2
53	Jorge Alfaro	C	TEX	55	2.1
54	Sean Newcomb	LHP	LAA	55	1.5*
55	D.J. Peterson	1B	SEA	55	2.6
56	Brandon Finnegan	LHP	KC	55	3.2*
57	Reynaldo Lopez	RHP	WSH	55	2.1
58	Aaron Judge	RF	NYY	55	1.4
59	Aaron Blair	RHP	ARZ	55	2.3
60	Amed Rosario	SS	NYM	55	3.1
61	Raul Mondesi	SS	KC	55	6.8
62	Raisel Iglesias	RHP	CIN	55	N/A
63	Ryan Mcmahon	3B	COL	55	4.6
64	C.J. Edwards	RHP	CHC	55	3.1
65	Steven Matz	LHP	NYM	55	2.2
66	Jameson Taillon	RHP	PIT	55	N/A
67	Jeff Hoffman	RHP	TOR	55	N/A
68	Max Fried	LHP	ATL	55	0.4*
69	Mike Foltynewicz	RHP	ATL	55	3.9
70	Aaron Sanchez	RHP	TOR	55	2.5
71	Alex Meyer	RHP	MIN	55	2.9
72	Nick Gordon	SS	MIN	55	1.8
73	Kohl Stewart	RHP	MIN	55	1.9
74	Tyler Kolek	RHP	MIA	55	0.6*
75	Vincent Velasquez	RHP	HOU	55	2.0
76	Alex Reyes	RHP	STL	55	3.7
77	Michael Conforto	LF	NYM	55	1.0*
78	Chance Sisco	C	BAL	55	6.0
79	Franklin Barreto	SS	OAK	55	6.6
80	Dalton Pompey	CF	TOR	50	7.1
81	Stephen Piscotty	RF	STL	50	3.9
82	Marco Gonzales	LHP	STL	50	3.9*
83	Trea Turner	SS	WSH	50	2.2
84	Brandon Drury	3B	ARZ	50	2.8
85	Brandon Nimmo	RF	NYM	50	4.0
86	Andrew Susac	C	SF	50	2.4
87	Orlando Arcia	SS	MIL	50	3.1
88	Michael Lorenzen	RHP	CIN	50	1.5
89	Grant Holmes	RHP	LA	50	2.4*
90	Willy Adames	SS	TB	50	5.6
91	Raimel Tapia	CF	COL	50	3.3
92	Albert Almora	CF	CHC	50	1.8
93	Max Pentecost	C	TOR	50	0.4*
94	Kyle Zimmer	RHP	KC	50	0.2*
95	Erick Fedde	RHP	WSH	50	N/A
96	Justin O’Conner	C	TB	50	0.9
97	Daniel Robertson	SS	TB	50	3.4
98	Marcos Molina	RHP	NYM	50	5.3
99	Rob Kaminsky	LHP	STL	50	2.5
100	Jacob Lindgren	LHP	NYY	50	6.8*
101	Clint Frazier	CF	CLE	50	1.5
102	Jorge Mateo	SS	NYY	50	0.8*
103	Josh Bell	RF	PIT	50	1.9
104	Brian Johnson	LHP	BOS	50	2.3
105	Miguel Almonte	RHP	KC	50	2.1
106	Christian Bethancourt	C	ATL	50	4.0
107	Brett Phillips	CF	HOU	50	5.2
108	Jorge Polanco	2B	MIN	50	2.7
109	Dilson Herrera	2B	NYM	50	9.7
110	Kyle Freeland	LHP	COL	50	1.1*
111	Nick Kingham	RHP	PIT	50	3.2
112	Lucas Sims	RHP	ATL	50	1.3
113	Frankie Montas	RHP	CHW	50	2.9
114	Touki Toussaint	RHP	ARZ	50	1.0*
115	Kodi Medeiros	LHP	MIL	50	0.7*
116	Spencer Adams	RHP	CHW	50	N/A
117	Luis Ortiz	RHP	TEX	50	0.9*
118	Bradley Zimmer	RF	CLE	50	1.8
119	Roberto Osuna	RHP	TOR	50	13.8*
120	Greg Bird	1B	NYY	50	5.2
121	Colin Moran	3B	HOU	50	1.4
122	Alex Blandino	2B	CIN	50	0.5
123	Jack Flaherty	RHP	STL	50	1.7*
124	Duane Underwood	RHP	CHC	50	1.6
125	Pierce Johnson	RHP	CHC	50	1.3
126	Lance McCullers	RHP	HOU	50	1.7
127	Travis Demeritte	2B	TEX	50	0.8
128	Nick Howard	RHP	CIN	50	0.2*
129	Forrest Wall	2B	COL	50	2.9*
130	Austin Hedges	C	SD	50	1.2
131	Lewis Brinson	CF	TEX	50	4.0
132	Derek Hill	CF	DET	50	2.7*
133	Michael Taylor	CF	WSH	50	3.7
134	Tyler Beede	RHP	SF	50	0.7*
135	Luke Jackson	RHP	TEX	50	2.6
136	Nick Williams	LF	TEX	50	4.6
137	Ian Clarkin	LHP	NYY	50	3.4
138	Ricardo Sanchez	LHP	ATL	50	1.1*
139	Hunter Dozier	3B	KC	50	1.1
140	Kyle Crick	RHP	SF	50	3.6
141	Nick Travieso	RHP	CIN	50	1.2
142	Tyler Danish	RHP	CHW	50	4.2