KATOH’s Rule 5 Pref List: The Pitchers

Earlier today, I published a post profiling a few of the hitters whom KATOH likes and who will be available in this week’s Rule 5 draft. Below, I repeat that exercise for pitchers.

As I did earlier, I will once again note that KATOH’s output isn’t perfectly aligned with what makes for a good Rule 5 pick. An interesting prospect might not be worth taking in the Rule 5 if he’s very far away from the big leagues. Similarly, there are there are older guys who might be able to help a big league team, but don’t grade out well according to my prospect model due to their age. In other words, this compilation of names is skewed more towards guys on the young end of the spectrum, and not necessarily towards guys who are most likely to contribute in 2016.

Identifying eligible Rule 5 players isn’t completely straightforward, so I can’t promise I didn’t miss a name or two along the way. But at the very least, I can assure you this piece contains most of KATOH’s favorite pitchers who will be available on Thursday. Immediately below, you’ll find the names of seven pitchers who are relatively close to being big league ready. Below that, you’ll find three more who are a bit further away. For each player, I’ve included his projection through age 28 based both on his 2015 stats and also 2014 stats.

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Seven Big League Ready(ish) Pitchers

Miguel Sulbaran, RHP, New York AL (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.3 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.2 WAR

Sulbaran pitched mostly at the Double-A level last year, where he turned in a solid 3.62 FIP. Sulbaran doesn’t strike a ton of guys out, but he’s allowed very few homers in the minors. The end result was a perfectly acceptable performance as a 21-year-old in Double-A. He’s also a lefty, which might appeal to teams looking to add one of those to their bullpen.

Cesar Vargas, LHP, San Diego (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.2 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.5 WAR

I wrote about Vargas last week when I looked at this year’s intriguing minor league free agents. Since he’s not on the Padres 40-man roster, he’s also relevant here. Prior to signing with San Diego, Vargas played in the Yankees organization from 2010 through 2015 with a decent amount of success. He pitched mostly at the Double-A level in 2015, and posted an impressive 2.55 FIP and 24% strikeout rate out of the bullpen. As a reliever, Vargas’s upside is obviously limited, but he’s already succeeded in the high minors at 23. He seems like a pretty good bet to wind up as a useful reliever. And since he’s a lefty, some team might give him a chance.

Ivan Pineyro, RHP, Miami (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.1 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.0 WAR

Pineyro started 2015 in the Cubs system, but was sent to the Marlins in the Dan Haren trade at the deadline. Pineyro pitched reasonably well in Double-A and Triple-A last year, striking out 19%, while walking 7%. He’s not flashy, but has fared well in the high minors by keeping his walks under control. A 3.42 FIP in the high minors from a guy who just turned 24? There’s a good chance some team will bite.

Brady Rogers, RHP, Houston (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 1.9 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.7 WAR

Rodgers is a 25-year-old righty who doesn’t throw particularly hard, which is possibly the least exciting thing you can be if you’re a pitcher. But even so, he held his own in Triple-A last year by posting a 4.20 FIP. Pitchers who hold their own in Triple-A often hold their own in the big leagues within a year or two.

Bryan Rodriguez, RHP, San Diego (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 1.7 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.6 WAR

Rodriguez spent most of 2015 in Double-A with mediocre results. His 4.44 ERA wasn’t pretty, and he struck out a mere 14% of batters faced. However, his 3.73 FIP suggests he was at least somewhat unlucky. That’s still not great, but it’s acceptable from a 23-year-old. Plus, at 6-foot-5, Rodriguez has height working in his favor.

Christian Binford, RHP, Kansas City (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 1.5 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 5.6 WAR

A former 30th-round pick, Binford pitched very well in 2014, but got rocked in his first taste of Triple-A last year. The Royals responded by sending him back to Double-A, where he was just alright, posting a 3.66 FIP but a 5.03 ERA. Binford pitched extremely well in the lower levels despite being fairly young for his levels; and at 6-foot-6, he has height on his side. But it’s unclear if these redeeming qualities should be enough to overlook his underwhelming stuff and mediocre 2015 performance.

Seth Lugo, RHP, New York AL (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 1.4 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.1 WAR

A 34th-round selection in the 2011 draft, Lugo clawed his way all the way to the Triple-A level last year. He fanned 22% of opposing hitters between Double-A and Triple-A while walking just 6%, leading to a solid 3.44 ERA. The numbers are good, but as with many of these names on this list, the stuff isn’t.

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Three Pitchers Who Aren’t Quite Ready

Frank Lopez, LHP, Texas (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 1.7 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 2.6 WAR

Lopez held his own between Double-A and Triple-A last year. His strikeout and walk numbers were right around the league average, which resulted in an unremarkable 4.21 ERA. What was remarkable about Lopez’s performance, however, was that he was only 21. A left-handed 21-year-old who didn’t embarrass himself as a starter in Double-A might pique some team’s interest.

Luis Lugo, LHP, Cleveland (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 1.4 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 2.7 WAR

Finally, someone with decent stuff! Lugo spent 2015 as a 21-year-old in High-A, where he turned in a 3.81 FIP on the strength of his 22% strikeout rate. Lugo hasn’t thrown a pitch above A-Ball, but his combination of age and performance make him very intriguing. Lugo’s a 6-foot-5 lefty with good stuff. Some team will probably take him, stick him in their bullpen and see what happens.

Jorge Ortega, RHP, Milwaukee (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 1.3 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.1 WAR

Ortega spent 2015 at the High-A level, where he pitched to a sparkling 2.41 ERA and a similarly impressive 3.09 FIP. The way he did it, though, was kind of fascinating: he struck out less than 13% and walked less than 2%. Aside from a September cameo at Triple-A, the 22-year-old’s never pitched above A-Ball. But perhaps some team will seek to find out if Ortega’s contact-heavy approach will work against big league hitters.