Late Inning Rays

The story of the 2008 season is obviously the success of Tampa Bay, though skeptics remain, with most prediction markets expecting the Rays to bow out early in the playoffs despite their sustained success. Among mainstream media analysis, a common critique of the Rays is that their bullpen isn’t full of guys with long track records of success, and with Troy Percival’s health in question, the idea of a contender mixing and matching at the end of games scares them.

However, I have to wonder if these analysts have noticed just how good Tampa’s bullpen really is. In fact, you could argue that among the likely AL playoff teams, the Rays bullpen is the best of the bunch. Look at their relief core:

Closer: Troy Percival – 4.15 BB/9, 8.31 K/9, 5.03 FIP, 0.77 WPA/LI
RH Setup: Dan Wheeler – 2.53 BB/9, 6.59 K/9, 4.15 FIP, 1.06 WPA/LI
LH Setup: J.P. Howell – 4.22 BB/9, 9.21 K/9, 3.49 FIP, 1.15 WPA/LI
Middle: Grant Balfour – 4.19 BB/9, 12.98 K/9, 1.89 FIP, 1.58 WPA/LI
LOOGY: Trever Miller – 5.23 BB/9, 8.27 K/9, 3.57 FIP, 0.25 WPA/LI
ROOGY: Chad Bradford – 2.28 BB/9, 3.23 K/9, 3.73 FIP, 0.78 WPA/LI

The Rays have decided that they’re willing to sacrifice command for dominance, creating a bullpen of guys who miss both the strike zone and bats with regularity, and succeed by keeping the ball in the park. They’ve also done a great job of giving Joe Maddon options at the end of ballgames, as he has lots of weapons depending on what he needs in a given at bat.

Bradford and Miller are same-handed specialists, perfect for neutralizing premium hitters in high leverage situations. Bradford’s extreme groundball nature also makes him the obvious pick for when a double play is necessary or there’s a runner at third with less than two out and you don’t want to give up the sac fly.

Balfour is the pleasant surprise, dominating the middle and late innings and racking up the strikeouts – he’s effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and can get you throw a middle of the order, even if it’s loaded with left and right handed bats. Howell is like Balfour from the left side, just with a few less strikeouts – his unique repertoire out of the pen also allows him to pitch multiple innings and not have to be used as a specialist.

Wheeler and Percival are the grizzled veterans, the experienced guys who Maddon can lean on while avoiding a controversy about going to unproven players in high leverage situations. While Percival’s FIP isn’t good, thanks to his extremely poor home run rate, he’s actually a pretty good candidate to get the cheap saves when the team leads by more than one, due to his extreme flyball nature. Because he’s constantly giving up flyballs, his balls in play are more likely to become outs, and if one happens to leave the yard without anyone on base, it’s not a big problem. He’s not a great closer, but he’s better than his FIP would indicate.

Forget what the talking heads tell you – the Rays bullpen is a strength, not a weakness. If you’re looking for a team that can win because they’re able to pitch well from the 6th-9th inning in October, Tampa should be among the first teams you like. Their bullpen is tremendous and setup very well for playoff baseball.