Low-Risk Lohse

This off-season, the free agent starting pitching market was not much to get excited about. Guys like Carlos Silva were given, well, ludicrous deals that mostly everyone criticized. One of the starting pitchers I expected to get a similar deal was Kyle Lohse. Things did not exactly work out that way, as Lohse’s asking price steadily declined. The Cardinals eventually signed Lohse to a 1-yr, 4 million dollar deal, that is making them look like geniuses right now.

In 30 starts, Lohse has arguably been their staff ace, producing a 3.76 ERA supported by a 3.85 FIP. His 5.24 K/9 is on the lower end of his career numbers, however a decrease in his walk rate from the last few years has resulted in a very respectable 2.41 K/BB ratio. He gets hit around a bit, but you could do much worse than a 1.29 WHIP. Couple that with an above average 73.6% strand rate, and more often than not, a successful pitcher will surface.

Is his performance surprising? Yes, but there were some telltale signs that he might actually be improving. Since 2004, his K/BB has essentially risen each year, while his HR/9 has decreased. Right now, his HR/9 of 0.79 is by far the lowest it has ever been. One potential reason for this change is his GB/FB, which, at 1.47, is higher than any rate he has posted. Additionally, he is using his fastball much more this year, cutting back on his changeups.

Lohse was pretty much the definition of a league average pitcher coming into the season, and while he may not have gotten the long-term, big-money deal he sought prior to this year, a WPA/LI of 1.70 that still has room to grow should get him something a bit more lucrative this off-season.