March of the Tigers

by
July 1, 2008

Prior to the season’s commencement, many analysts for whatever reason pegged the Tigers capable of scoring 1,000 runs this season. Whether these “projections” were born out of reality or more along the lines of superlatives to express how potent the offense could be, everyone expected them to succeed this season. Suffice it to say, on June 6th, when they sat at 24-36, twelve games under .500, and nowhere near the pace for 1,000 runs, bedlam worthy of Gotham City began to ensue in the minds of the Detroit faithful.

Since that day the Tigers have gone 18-4, improving their record to 42-40. While nothing spectacular it is still good enough for just five games out of first place. In lieu of their more extended recent winning ways I wanted to take a look at the major contributors. In terms of WPA, Placido Polanco, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Curtis Granderson all rank in the top 25 over the last fourteen days, ranging from 0.42 to 0.54 wins. Substitute Cabrera for Clete Thomas, with the other three in tact, and the group of four also ranks in the context-neutral top 35 in this same span.

Since June 6, here are some of the numbers for their offensive components:

Marcus Thames: .313/.362/.813, 1.175 OPS, 10 HR in 64 AB
Curtis Granderson: .423/.458/.628, 1.086 OPS, 4 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR
Placido Polanco: .427/.437/.537, .974 OPS
Clete Thomas: .450/.542/.650 in first career 24 PA
Miguel Cabrera: .306/.344/.482, .826 OPS, 6 2B, 3 HR
Gary Sheffield: .286/.310/.536, .846 OPS, 2 HR in 7 g returning from DL

The numbers of Cabrera and Sheffield may not seem as “special” relative to what was expected of them but the results since June 6 have been better than their overall numbers; for Sheffield, much better. What about the starting rotation? Jeremy Bonderman will miss the season but what are the other four main starters doing during this torrid stretch of play?

Armando Galarraga: 5 GS, 29.1 IP, 6 BB, 20 K, 2.76 ERA, 52 Game Score
Kenny Rogers: 5 GS, 33.1 IP, 9 BB, 10 K, 2.70 ERA, 54 Game Score
Justin Verlander: 5 GS, 33.0 IP, 14 BB, 34 K, 2.73 ERA, 61 Game Score
Nate Robertson: 4 GS, 24.2 IP, 6 BB, 17 K, 2.92 ERA, 52 Game Score

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These four, whose combined W-L in this span is 10-2, range from 2.70-2.92 in ERA and 52-61 in Game Score average. Add in Eddie Bonine’s two most recent outings and the Tigers staff seems to be clicking on all cylinders. This team is not going to score 1,000 runs, and they are not going to sustain an .818 winning percentage the rest of the season, but they are not as bad as they looked early on. They struggled out of the gate and underachieved, and are now overachieving to make up for it. I guess it’s true that, for an AL team, there isn’t anything better to cure some performance ailments than facing the teams on the senior circuit.

And, while the White Sox are still playing well, how many non-Detroit and non-Chicago fans are starting to think—despite being potentially afraid to admit it—that the Tigers, 24-36 on June 6, could realistically win this division?





 

Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.

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