Marlins Reel in Nick Johnson
Bedlam ruled the day of the trade deadline, and the Nick Johnson for LHP Aaron Thompson deal was no exception. The Nationals broke from their age old custom of clenching to tradeable players, and the Marlins (!) acted as buyers at the trade deadline.
The Fish will gladly insert Nick Johnson and his .417 on base percentage at 1B. In consequence, Jorge Cantu gets bumped over to third and Emilio Bonaficio gets booted to the role of utility infielder.
Johnson’s OBP matches his slugging percentage and moving to spacious Dolphin Stadium can’t really help his projection for a power recovery. ZiPS projects a .389 wOBA the rest of the season, I’d say that’s a tad too hopeful. .375 for the next 60 games seems a little more realistic. He’s normally been solid with the glove, but this year he’s slipped to a -7 per 150 games.
For his career, Cantu has been a disaster at the hot corner (-19 over 204 games), but the Marlins will absorb the hit so long as it gets Bonaficio and his sub-.300 OBP out of the lineup. After a hot start, Bonaficio rates along with the likes Jeff Francoeur as one of the worst regular players in the Senior Circuit with his -0.5 WAR.
Add this all up, and the gist is the Marlins got a win or two better. I’m not sure that helps them catch the Rockies or Giants in the Wild Card race; as a team they’ve been a bit of an overachieving bunch to begin with, but Johnson is a decent value bet.
The cost is lefty Aaron Thompson, who is better known as “Not Matt Garza” to Marlin’s fans. Thompson was Florida’s 1st round pick in the ’05 draft, but hasn’t really pitched up to scratch. He’s repeating Double-A, and is striking out a little less than 6 batters per nine innings. He works with an 89-91 MPH fastball, a curve and a changeup which grades as above average. He looks like a future back-end starter at this point.
It’s not an earth-shattering deal for either side, but I got to give the Nats some credit for turning Johnson, a player that was of no use to them, into something.
Erik Manning is the founder of Future Redbirds and covers the Cardinals for Heater Magazine. You can get more of his analysis and rantings in bite-sized bits by following him on twitter.
Why did the Nats only shop Johnson is my question. Plenty of guys who teams could use, but outside of, like, Zimmerman, no one that’s worth long term consideration to the team. Do they really think Dunn is going to stick around after they go 60-102 in 2010 and some AL team is offering 4 year / $55 million to DH?
The Nats FO view Dunn as a guy who brings fans to the game, when there is little other that could be considered a draw on the Nats. Can’t say I agree, but that’s their view.
It seems like they’ll hold onto Dunn until next July, then field some offers. Remember, no one was willing to pay Dunn anywhere near the 2/$20mil that the Nats were offering in March, so it’s unlikely a team would be anxious to pick up his remaining $12mil. However, next year at this time, only having to commit $3-4mil to Dunn will look much more appealing.
Then if no teams bite, the Nats will still get Type A FA compensation, when Dunn inevitably moves to the AL. Not bad for a 1.5-2 WAR player.
Even though he’s more of a 3-4 WAR when you don’t put the NL-style gun to his head and make him field.