Mike Trout Is Pretty Good, Too

Mike Trout is off to a great start. In just 129 plate appearances this season, the 20-year-old outfielder is hitting .304/.364/.522. Combine that with his spectacular defense, and it looks like Trout is well on his way to becoming one of the best players in baseball. Although Trout has been great this season, Bryce Harper has overshadowed his performance. And while Dave Cameron recently told us that Harper could be on his way to a historic season, Mike Trout isn’t that far behind.

Using the same methodology that Dave used in his Harper article, Trout’s current performance puts him in some pretty good company. Using wRC+, Trout is currently tied for the 14th best season by a 20-year-old.

 

Season	Name	Team	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
1988	Gregg Jefferies	Mets	29	118	0.321	0.364	0.596	0.425	184
1915	Babe Ruth	Red Sox	42	103	0.315	0.376	0.576	0.448	181
1907	Ty Cobb	Tigers	150	646	0.350	0.380	0.468	0.421	169
1996	Alex Rodriguez	Mariners	146	677	0.358	0.414	0.631	0.444	162
1929	Mel Ott	Giants	150	674	0.328	0.449	0.635	0.476	161
1952	Mickey Mantle	Yankees	142	626	0.311	0.394	0.530	0.424	159
1939	Ted Williams	Red Sox	149	677	0.327	0.436	0.609	0.464	158
1872	Cap Anson	Athletics	46	233	0.415	0.455	0.525	0.440	155
1955	Al Kaline	Tigers	152	681	0.340	0.421	0.546	0.421	154
1888	Jake Beckley	Alleghenys	71	292	0.343	0.363	0.417	0.362	151
1916	Rogers Hornsby	Cardinals	139	550	0.313	0.369	0.444	0.394	149
1928	Jimmie Foxx	Athletics	118	473	0.328	0.416	0.548	0.427	147
1971	Greg Luzinski	Phillies	28	115	0.300	0.386	0.470	0.395	147
1956	Frank Robinson	Redlegs	152	668	0.290	0.379	0.558	0.408	146
1878	Abner Dalrymple	Grays	61	277	0.354	0.368	0.421	0.366	146
2012	Mike Trout	Angels	29	129	0.304	0.364	0.522	0.384	146

There are some pretty exceptional names on that list. Though Trout isn’t performing as well as Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb or Alex Rodriguez, he’s matching the production of many hall-of-fame players. In fact, only three players on this list — Abner Dalrymple, Greg Luzinski and Gregg Jefferies — aren’t in the Hall of Fame. Alex Rodriguez is still active — and there will likely be some debate over his hall-of-fame merits based on his past steroid usage — but he clearly has a deserving resume.

Trout has shown he has abilities as a hitter, but he’s also regarded as an elite defender. Trout has managed to rack up a 4.9 UZR so far this season. And while UZR isn’t entirely dependable in a small sample, this is a case where the scouts and the stats agree. Mike Trout is — and will continue to be — a phenomenal defense player.

And because of that, Trout should be able to put up a strong WAR if he continues to hit at this level. He’s already been worth 1.7 wins this season, but he’s accumulated that total in fewer than 200 plate appearances. To determine how the rest of the season might shake out, we can look at Trout’s ZiPS projection. Trout’s Rest of Season ZiPS projection expects that Trout will post a .339 wOBA going forward. It also projects that Trout to be worth about three more wins this season — which would bring his season total to 4.8 WAR.

If Trout managed to finish the season with that win total, it would rate as the 16th best season by a 20-year-old. And if that weren’t impressive enough, there’s a chance that ZiPs is being conservative with its projection of Trout’s defense. In the 430 plate appearances ZiPS projects going forward, Trout is expected to produce a 3.3 UZR. He’s already accumulated 4.9 in just 129 plate appearances, so there’s a good chance he’ll exceed his UZR projection.

But if ZiPS is 100% accurate, and Trout does finish the season with a 4.8 WAR, that would still be incredibly impressive. Trout’s performance would put him on par with Johnny Bench, Jimmie Foxx, Willie Mays and Jason Heyward. Three of those players are in the Hall of Fame. And some pretty flattering things were written during Heyward’s rookie season.

Mike Trout may be a year older than Bryce Harper — and he may have slightly more experience in the big leagues — but what he’s doing at 20 years old is almost equally as impressive. If anyone is going to challenge Harper for the title of the game’s best player five years from now, it’s almost certainly going to be Trout.