Moose!

Mike Mussina did not have too great of a season last year. He barely surmounted the 150 innings plateau even with 27 starts and a relief appearance. He fanned just 91 hitters, a 5.39 K/9, his lowest rate since 1994. Coupled with a 2.07 BB/9, Mussina’s 2.60 K/BB was his lowest since 1993. Surrendering 188 hits in those 152 innings helped produce a career worst 1.47 WHIP. Stranding just 66% of those baserunners resulted in all time high ERA of 5.15. With numbers like that and a fastball that struggled to touch 86-87 miles per hour, the end appeared to be rapidly approaching this potential and oft-debated hall of fame candidate.

There were some good signs, however, as the hits surrendered hinged upon an unusually high .340 BABIP. Additionally, despite 5.15 ERA, his FIP was a solid 4.01, which might not be the caliber of a #1 pitcher, but definitely what a team should be looking for in a #3-#4 guy. Entering this season, the Marcel projection system saw Mussina as a 4.53 ERA/3.95 FIP pitcher with a 2.83 K/BB and a 1.38 WHIP. His numbers were projected to regress a bit, but not all the way back to the Moose from the late 90’s/early 2000’s.

With a week left in the season, Mussina has made many forget about last season’s numbers as he has been a rock for the Yankees staff. In 32 starts, he has pitched in 189.1 innings, and while he has gotten hit around a bit to the tune of 207 hits surrendered and a .326 BABIP, his WHIP has dropped to 1.25. The major reason for this is his 1.38 BB/9, which happens to be the lowest of his entire career. Coupled with a nice 6.70 K/9, Mussina’s K/BB now rests at 4.86, one of the highest in his career. The strand rate has regressed to the league average 72%, and with the reduced amount of baserunners, period, this has helped him to a 3.57 ERA. His FIP of 3.38 suggests it should be even lower.

His fastball has gotten even slower this year, as he averages around 84-86 mph on his “heater” but something noteworthy is his change of rates on balls in play. His career rate of grounders is 43%, and from 2002-2007, it ranged from 40-43%. This year, however, he is at 48%. It is very tough to discuss Mussina right now without mentioning his hall of fame candidacy, so I will leave that for the comments section below, but if he were to retire following this season, going out on top so to speak, what do you consider his chances to be? Or does he need one more season like this to cement his place in Cooperstown?