Neil Weinberg FanGraphs Q&A – 11/5/14
| 2:36 |
: Hey all. We’ll get started at 3pm. Remember, focus of this chat is stat/sabermetric/FG questions, but anything is fair game. Queue is open.
Also, if you need to reach me during the week for similar questions, I’m @NeilWeinberg44 on Twitter. |
| 3:00 |
Have you seen the fielding bible awards? Do you think that lineup plus an average pitching staff would be the best team in baseball 2015? |
| 3:00 |
: /refreshes memory of winners
|
| 3:02 |
: Not a lock, but I think they would be close.
|
| 3:02 |
: That’s a good group.
|
| 3:02 |
Hey Neil. How awkward do you think it is for Ned Colleti to go into work? |
| 3:02 |
: Eh, getting paid to do less work with less stress while smarter people come in and do your old job. Can’t really say I’d turn that down.
|
| 3:02 |
Is there such a thing as replacement level at the minor league level? If so, how would a positive-WAR player compare to a replacement level player at the next level, or do you just promote that player and see how he does? |
| 3:05 |
: So, theoretically one could find a “replacement level” for any league, but the issue you run into with minor league players is that they are there for two purposes, development and organizational need. So a Joc Pederson type guy and Mike Hessman are in the minors for two very different reasons. So in practice, you wouldn’t observe the same type of things you would relative to MLB because some get promoted up. That was a rambling answer, sorry
|
| 3:05 |
Is it a sign of progress that BBWA doesn’t have Nelson Cruz as a finalist for AL MVP despite the dingers and RBI for a good team? |
| 3:05 |
: I think so, but that’s kind of why VMart is there.
|
| 3:05 |
Is this where we lol @ Theriot? |
| 3:06 |
: You can do that anywhere on planet Earth.
|
| 3:06 |
Do you want a cat? |
| 3:06 |
: There are two strays in my neighborhood and they are best friends with my dog.
This is the SECOND time my dog has made friends with a stray cat. He must have cat pheromones |
| 3:07 |
why do people insist on applying free market theory to baseball’s oligopsonistic labor market? |
| 3:07 |
: As a rule, most people don’t have a good grasp on the nuances of economics, period.
|
| 3:07 |
I thought Cistulli was going for the long-troll on NotGraphs, but it looks like it really is dead. |
| 3:08 |
: Still the possibility it is a very long troll, I guess. You never really know.
|
| 3:08 |
What’s your take on framing numbers and value they assign to catchers? |
| 3:09 |
: I think they are plausible, but I’m also not convinced we’ve really figured out exactly how to measure the run value of framing for the pitcher/catcher. So my answer is that the numbers seem right enough, but that I’m not sold on the method completely.
|
| 3:10 |
I loled in my office at theriot, got unkind looks from co-workers (assembly-line sewing is not usually cheerful work) |
| 3:10 |
Why doesn’t steamer project GB%? |
| 3:10 |
: Would have to ask Steamer creators. Lots of projections don’t do batted ball specific stuff.
|
| 3:10 |
Do you have a mustache? If not, please describe the mustache you will start growing tomorrow. |
| 3:10 |
: I have a full beard. Is this acceptable?
|
| 3:10 |
Brandon Crawford wRC+ by season: 68, 81, 92, 102 with almost every other offensive category improving as well. He’ll be 28 in 2015 & steamer projects him to regress to an 89 wRC+. Is that odd? Also, should the Giants try to extend him? |
| 3:12 |
: 89 seems pretty reasonable. I mean, maybe 93 would make you feel better. But there’s usually going to be regression to the mean involved.
I would go year to year with him because arbitration underpays guys like Crawford. |
| 3:12 |
Carlos Martinez has a great fastball, but could he cut it as a full time starter, or is he destined for a life in the bullpen? |
| 3:13 |
: I think in another organization he would get more rope in the rotation, but he’s set up to be a good reliever and the Cards aren’t desperate for pitching depth. I would not give up on his potential as a starter, but practically speaking the Cards might be okay doing so
|
| 3:14 |
Is gap between good pitch framers and bad pitch framers bound to narrow in the future? It seems like part of the reason certain guys aren’t good is because they don’t realize how important it is and don’t really try to frame pitches (or prioritize blocking over framing). |
| 3:15 |
: Yes. I don’t think teams knew (or believed) the gap could be so large. Guys like Salty won’t get the same kind of love early in their careers in the future and we’ll start to select out the really bad framers.
|
| 3:16 |
would you draft sp in the first round of a snake draft? |
| 3:16 |
: Rules will obviously matter, but yes.
|
| 3:16 |
do you value elite rp more or less than others in ottoneu? |
| 3:17 |
: Less, but they can make for really good auction targets if you’re rebuilding because everyone wants them later in the year. Made a killing trading relievers last year
|
| 3:17 |
Is it pronounced “otto-noy” (as neu is pronounced in German)? |
| 3:17 |
: I saw Otto-New, but literally have no idea.
|
| 3:17 |
may i ask a question that has no purpose? |
| 3:17 |
: This is a baseball chat on a Wednesday afternoon in November, so of course
|
| 3:17 |
I think NotGraphs was the really long troll. Cistulli is laughing at your pain |
| 3:18 |
: I don’t really know what it was or why it was, but there was something compelling about the whole thing.
|
| 3:18 |
Why the significant difference in fWAR versus bWAR for Jose Quintana and Adam Eaton? Are park effects partly responsible? |
| 3:18 |
: Let’s look!
|
| 3:20 |
: For JQ, his fielding independent numbers (basis of fWAR) are much better than his runs allowed (basis for bWAR).
For Eaton, DRS (bWAR defense) liked him a lot more than UZR (fWAR defense). |
| 3:20 |
“This is a baseball chat on a Wednesday afternoon in November, so of course” and yet my questions go unanswered, life is rough. |
| 3:20 |
: We’re like 20 minutes in! Give me a chance!
|
| 3:21 |
What’s the most any single player is worth in ottoneu? I just can’t figure how > $65 for any single player makes good sense |
| 3:21 |
: I generally won’t go above $45-50. But if you have a good team that needs 1000 points and you don’t have a ton of open spots in the lineup, you might go for Trout
|
| 3:22 |
Do you think Carlos Martinez’s wrist/forearm could be *too strong* which is why he has such control issues? It gets a lot of work. |
| 3:23 |
: I have no idea…is this a thing? You have my attention.
|
| 3:23 |
If all current players (MLB, minor) were put into a big pot and you had 2nd choice (Trout got picked first) … who would you select as your franchise cornerstone? |
| 3:24 |
: Such a tough call. Top of my head candidates: Harper, Cutch, Kershaw, Puig, Lucroy/Posey? Hmmm…Cutch?
|
| 3:24 |
Soriano doesn’t even get the fangraphs send-off? Seems like a great candidate. |
| 3:25 |
: Still time! It’s not the kind of breaking news that needs an immediate post.
|
| 3:25 |
Hypothetical Mookie Betts trade proposals you’ve fielded over the course of all your Fangraphs chats: 50 — over/under? |
| 3:25 |
: Under, slightly. People got distracted by the playoffs.
|
| 3:25 |
Should I beware of bWar … or simply be aware? |
| 3:26 |
: Aware! It’s good to have multiple approaches to answer a question as complicated as player value.
|
| 3:26 |
My girlfriend lives in — as is a native of — another country. Do you have a projection for when we’ll be together? |
| 3:26 |
: So much unknown data here. Going to say one month.
|
| 3:27 |
: Little light on questions, FYI, so today would be a good day to ask things!
|
| 3:28 |
valbuena for JA happ. who says no |
| 3:28 |
: Straight up, Cubs?
|
| 3:28 |
: JA Happ is 32. When did this happen?!
|
| 3:30 |
Neil Walker for Jordan Zimmerman. Who says no? |
| 3:31 |
: Presumably the Nats, but it’s not crazy out of context.
|
| 3:31 |
Is Jim Palmer a Hall of Famer if he doesn’t spend most of his career playing in front of two of the greatest defensive infielders ever? |
| 3:31 |
: Probably not.
|
| 3:32 |
Have you read Cwik’s Castro article for RotoGraphs? Do you agree about the Cubs looking to trade Castro now? What kind of package would he command in return? |
| 3:33 |
: Haven’t read it yet, but he would be one of the guys I’d look to deal. He has the “established” tag and is already making real money (even if it isn’t lots). Think they could get a really nice, non-elite prospect
|
| 3:33 |
Would pursuing CarGo make sense for the White Sox or should they think more on the lines of taking a flyer on someone like Scott Van Slyke? |
| 3:33 |
: CarGo would be an interesting move for them, but they’re probably still in a position to acquire cheaper assets before really going for it in a year or two
|
| 3:33 |
What would you pay Russell Martin on the FA market? As in, what’s the upper limit you’d pay? |
| 3:34 |
: 4/60? 4/70?
|
| 3:34 |
Spinoff of other question. If GMs were doing a fantasy draft, but it was there real teams, when would the first player that hasn’t made his major league debut be taken? |
| 3:34 |
: Top 10-15.
|
| 3:34 |
: Assuming salary rules are the same
|
| 3:35 |
I know this gets close to how errors are scored, but given the issues we have with current defensive metrics, could a basic yes/no system in regards to if a player successfully made a play on a ball he attempted to make a play on have any merit as a WAR input? |
| 3:35 |
: This is pretty much how we calculate defense before 2002. Not precisely, but basically.
|
| 3:35 |
Is Erisbel Arruebarrena the Dodger’s primary SS in 2015? Is his D enough to warrant giving him a starting spot? |
| 3:36 |
: I think they go FA/trade, but the glove makes him a fallback
|
| 3:36 |
Any idea what Josh Byrnes’ roll is with LAD? |
| 3:36 |
: No, probably something like Assistant GM role, but with a better title
|
| 3:37 |
For big free agents, how much of the valuation differences (random guess) is caused by economic assumptions (discount rate, inflation, cost of capital, etc.)? |
| 3:38 |
: Inflation and discount rate play a major role. Teams don’t sign $200 million deals without factoring in how much that is in real dollars. Same with discount rate. Mike Illitch cares WAY less about 2021 than most owners.
|
| 3:38 |
Horrible contract more likely to be traded: A-Rod or Ryan Howard? |
| 3:38 |
: Ryan Howard. Can’t imagine a team wanting to deal with ARod media circus.
|
| 3:39 |
Is Andrew Miller actually going to make 24/3 as an eighth inning guy? Seems crazy |
| 3:39 |
: I think so. I wouldn’t be the one to offer that deal, though
|
| 3:39 |
: Partly because I am not a GM, but mostly in the theoretical sense too
|
| 3:39 |
Why don’t you work for an MLB team. I assume they pay better than Fangraphs |
| 3:40 |
: MLB teams generally don’t pay super well. They pay better than FG, but they also want you to work 60 hours a week, nights, weekends, etc. Doesn’t really appeal to me. Also, no team has ever asked me to do that!
|
| 3:40 |
Why aren’t you president of the united states of america. I assume they pay better than Fangraphs |
| 3:41 |
: Same answer. Almost exactly. Also not 35.
|
| 3:41 |
What do you think it would take to pry Heyward out of Atlanta’s hands? |
| 3:43 |
: Probably less than you think. Only one more year and teams typically pay a little less for defense
|
| 3:43 |
Worst non-tender in recent memory: Big Papi. Second worst: Russell Martin (in 2010). Any others? |
| 3:43 |
: Nothing comes to mind…but you have to wonder about both of those…do those guys have the same careers if they aren’t non-tendered? I don’t think that’s a given at all.
|
| 3:43 |
do you have any desire to work in a mlb front office? |
| 3:45 |
: Not really. The idea is cool, but the hours/pay isn’t great unless you’re at the top. Wouldn’t turn anything down immediately, but also don’t plan to seek it out.
|
| 3:45 |
Zach Wheeler for Alexei Ramirez? Who says no? |
| 3:45 |
: Mets.
|
| 3:45 |
Is raa park adjusted? I thought you said that it wasn’t once. |
| 3:45 |
: wRAA is not park adjusted. Batting Runs is park and league adjusted version of wRAA
|
| 3:45 |
You’re the president of the united states of my heart, neil. And the director of baseball operations, all for just 40 hours per week with great benes. |
| 3:45 |
: That’s nice to hear. How’s the economy and the team doing?
|
| 3:46 |
Think a $ swap of Lincecum for Howard + prospect (or ML player with years of control) + ~$10 million is worth it for both? Lincecum has 1/18 million left, Howard has 3/60 left. |
| 3:46 |
: What on Earth would the Giants do with Howard?
|
| 3:47 |
If Matt Wieters’ arm never recovers enough for him to play C again, should he start at 1B over Chris Davis? |
| 3:47 |
: Probably not. Wieters needs to be able to catch.
|
| 3:48 |
How is batting runs calculated? |
| 3:48 |
| 3:49 |
i made a very high stakes bet that the cubs would win 79 games or better this year. Am i insane? I stand to make 1500$. if they win 77-79 i win 100. |
| 3:49 |
: Seems like a decent gamble.
|
| 3:49 |
do you have any desire to be president of the united states of america? |
| 3:49 |
: I actually did want to be POTUS for a few years from like age 13-15
|
| 3:49 |
Would India/Pakistan be a good place to try to expand interest in baseball internationally due to cricket’s popularity there, or should focus continue to be mostly on Anglosphere and Latin America? |
| 3:50 |
: I think so. I confess that I don’t know much about the sporting climate there, but there’s a huge population that seemingly likes a cousin of the game. Would make some effort
|
| 3:50 |
When will Fangraphs be renamed Fananalysis or Fandata? |
| 3:51 |
: There are still graphs!
|
| 3:51 |
Would you be displeased with a relatively new ownership situation in which the owners used baseball revenue to pay off their debt in purchasing your favorite club? |
| 3:51 |
: Most likely.
|
| 3:51 |
Are election prediction models kind of dumb as a concept? It’s impossible to prove how accurate they are since there are so few well-polled elections to get a relevant sample of and they occur under very different circumstances year to year. |
| 3:52 |
: I have plenty of respect for the quality of the methodology, but I kind of think they’re pointless. I’m not sure what value they add to the discussion other than quieting talking heads who want to make everything 50/50 for the drama.
|
| 3:53 |
Do players interact regularly with grounds crew/stadium staff? Could increasing pay/morale of other staff members lead to residual good morale/vibes translating to team in a cost effective manner? |
| 3:54 |
: That’s a good question. Certainly they interact with the clubhouse staff, but I don’t know how much contact they have with vendors/ushers/etc.
|
| 3:54 |
hey neil thanks for chatting! I bet 20$ that A-rod would hit under 20 home runs this year. What are the odds he hits over 20? |
| 3:55 |
: I think lower than 50%, but the Steamer projection hasn’t been updated, so I don’t have a more precise guess.
|
| 3:56 |
Ryan Howard + $59,999,999 in exchange for $1. Let’s presume this trade occurs and you are Ruben Amaro Jr (I’m sorry). What do you do with your shiny new dollar? |
| 3:56 |
: Bagel?
|
| 3:57 |
Billy Hamilton got caught stealing 23 times last year (70% success rate). Think he can get better at baserunning before his wheels fall off? |
| 3:57 |
: I would think so. This seems like the easiest base running skill to improve, i.e. deciding when to run.
|
| 3:58 |
Damn, that’s a cheap bagel. |
| 3:58 |
: Local place here is $1, plus tax.
|
| 3:58 |
Conger to Astros for Carlos Perez and Nick Tropeano |
| 3:58 |
: Hot stove is on fire.
|
| 3:59 |
: Quick break. Back in a minute to take us the rest of the way. Fire off some more questions.
|
| 4:02 |
% that Arod hits 15 home runs this year? also how many PA do you think he gets? |
| 4:02 |
: Bet he gets 400-500 PA, hits 10-15 bombs
|
| 4:02 |
Hey self, doing well today. |
| 4:02 |
: I know this is a fake because my car had a flat earlier.
|
| 4:02 |
Percentage chance Jays make the playoffs within 5 years? I don’t like the chances |
| 4:03 |
: I wouldn’t be that pessimistic. There’s nothing structurally concerning like massive deals to aging players. Lots of room to work.
|
| 4:04 |
If a player plays in a park with 110 pf, does that mean he has a 10% or 5% advantage on the year? |
| 4:04 |
: 10%. Our park factors are already halved. So if a park increases offense by 20%, the park factor is 110
|
| 4:04 |
Is Adrian Beltre a HOF? |
| 4:05 |
: Absolutely.
|
| 4:06 |
A-Rod + $35M (or whatever you have to give for the salaries to even out) for Ubaldo Jimenez? Both players are bad fits at their current club (O’s crowded rotation and Yankees media circus) but could be useful assuming the Yankees still need a rotation arm and the O’s don’t resign Cruz and need a DH. |
| 4:06 |
: O’s need to find a way to get Pearce/Davis/Wieters into the lineup. Probably don’t want a DH only like that.
|
| 4:07 |
Did you go get a bagel before they realize it’s 2014 and price a bagel at a reasonable bagel price |
| 4:07 |
: I have a time machine called living in NC.
|
| 4:07 |
But you do live a stone’s throw from your mechanic, so that’s doing well, no? |
| 4:07 |
: True.
|
| 4:07 |
whatever you do, dont read bleacher reports top X lists for baseball. they make me cringe, and feel overhwleming bouts of rage |
| 4:08 |
: Choose not to read things that make you feel that way
|
| 4:08 |
its 2025 and the latest expansion team is here. they want to build a park like the polo grounds…mlb says ______. whats the craziest mlb will let them go? |
| 4:08 |
: I don’t think MLB would stop them.
|
| 4:08 |
greater chance the red sox sign panda or lester? |
| 4:08 |
: Sandoval.
|
| 4:08 |
Castellanos for Betts. How much more would the Tigers need to give up, in your opinion? |
| 4:09 |
: A lot.
|
| 4:10 |
but will adrian beltre be elected? |
| 4:10 |
: I believe so. He’s only 35!
|
| 4:11 |
do you believe in stever pearce? age 32 breakout? |
| 4:11 |
: I believe in him as a real player, not as a 5 WAR player
|
| 4:12 |
Which is more likely: Jeter becomes first unanimous HoF or Jeter not elected on first ballot? |
| 4:12 |
: Unanimous. Won’t happen, but he’d have to get caught using PEDs to avoid 1st ballot.
|
| 4:13 |
You are now the Rockies GM. Other than just getting the hell out of there, what would be your gameplan this offseason? |
| 4:14 |
: Sign starting pitchers with injury histories, secretly only let them pitch on the road. Trade for profit.
|
| 4:14 |
If there was no outfield fence and field stretched infinitely deep, how valuable would power be? Presumably BABIP for power hitters would go way up since outfielders would have to play much deeper to avoid having balls hit over their head. Enough to compensate for say 25% of the lost production from HRs? |
| 4:14 |
: I have no idea how to answer this but I am going to think about it for twenty minutes.
|
| 4:14 |
Do you have a/multiple nickname/s, if so what is it/are they? |
| 4:14 |
: I do not. Not much you can do with my name.
|
| 4:15 |
Does the Batting Runs calculation assume that all road PA’s occur at a 100 park factor? |
| 4:15 |
: Yeah, basically.
|
| 4:15 |
how many stone’s throws away are you from the place with $1 bagels |
| 4:16 |
: More stones, but it’s pretty close. Odd urge to watch Stonecutters episode.
|
| 4:17 |
bleacher report poll asked if Alfonso soirano was a HOF. i said no. i was in the 27%. he has a 38 career WAR… what do you think |
| 4:17 |
: No. Good player, not HOF player.
|
| 4:17 |
What would a fair Steve Pearce contract extension (this offseason) look like? He has 1 year of arb left but might make sense for O’s to pursue extension now given his unusual career circumstances. |
| 4:18 |
: I would gamble on a 3/30 type thing the way TOR did with EE. Worth risking a few million in case he is actually awesome now.
|
| 4:18 |
what city is the next expansion team in? what year |
| 4:18 |
: Portland and Charlotte…2025
|
| 4:18 |
Did you vote for Clay Aiken? |
| 4:18 |
: Not my district.
|
| 4:19 |
Would having tiny cameras attached to each player capturing what they see just be neat or would it help us understand the game better? Technology for this is very close. |
| 4:19 |
: I think it would be great.
|
| 4:19 |
why didn’t you move to Clay Aiken’s district to vote for him |
| 4:19 |
: Seems like a lot of work to vote for a losing candidate
|
| 4:20 |
: I feel like this chat went off the rails almost immediately.
|
| 4:20 |
Do minor league teams have territorial rights? Could the Mets or their single A affiliate in Coney Island prevent a AAA team from moving to Brooklyn? |
| 4:20 |
: Don’t think so.
|
| 4:20 |
Pearce in LF, Davis at 1B, Wieters at C, what am I missing that solves the DH issue for the O’s? |
| 4:21 |
: Might wind up signing an OF and doing Pearce/Davis/ DH/1B split. Kinda depends.
|
| 4:21 |
ALL BETTS ARE OFF |
| 4:21 |
: Would be good name for a new Sox blog.
|
| 4:22 |
can you share a picture of your dog? |
| 4:22 |
: Yeah. Let me find one on this machine.
|
| 4:23 |
:
|
| 4:24 |
: That’s from several months ago. He has more of a beard now.
|
| 4:24 |
Do baseball players play other sports in the offseason, for recreation or improvement/maintenance of baseball-relevant skills? If so, which do they play? |
| 4:25 |
: Teams generally frown on this, but there’s a lot of pickup basketball. Probably soccer
|
| 4:25 |
If you started a non-baseball -graphs (like Eno’s Beergraphs and Jeff’s Volcanographs) what would it be about? |
| 4:25 |
: DogGraphs. SandwichGraphs. MilkshakeGraphs. PizzaGraphs.
|
| 4:25 |
Fantasy: Posey or Y. Gomes? |
| 4:25 |
: Posey
|
| 4:25 |
CUTEST DOG |
| 4:26 |
Have you ever made a pizza sandwich milkshake and fed it to a dog? |
| 4:27 |
: No that would be crazy. Dog would get sick.
|
| 4:27 |
baez strike out 250+ times next year? |
| 4:27 |
: Slightly under.
|
| 4:27 |
Baez for Pederson who says no? |
| 4:27 |
: That actually sounds pretty fun.
|
| 4:28 |
would you take a defensively decent SS with 50 HRs and 10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 Ks? |
| 4:30 |
: No.
|
| 4:30 |
: Assuming those Ks mean they never get on base any other times.
|
| 4:30 |
cabrera’s unknown-until-surgery fracture the reason for his HR decline, or just bad luck (flyball distance was still good)? |
| 4:30 |
: He was very hurt. Couldn’t do anything for six to eight weeks during the summer
|
| 4:30 |
have we seen the best of mike trout? |
| 4:31 |
: Odds are yes. Hard to be better than he was
|
| 4:31 |
You’re the commish. League votes down your trade at the deadline, only trade vetoed all year. You put the trade through manually anyway. Cheating or just deserts? |
| 4:31 |
: Cheating.
|
| 4:31 |
do you have any non-baseball hobbies? |
| 4:32 |
: I like learning stuff, so I read pretty widely. Enjoy television. Spend a lot of time training, playing with the dog. I am very boring.
|
| 4:32 |
how could you not notice that you had a fracture for 6-8 weeks? |
| 4:32 |
: I assume he noticed (Cabrera), but just didn’t want to stop playing
|
| 4:32 |
What sort of analytical bent would you bring to dogs? Would you focus on performance and personality characteristics of different breeds? |
| 4:33 |
: Trainability? Some sort of exercise need, etc.
|
| 4:33 |
What are you training for? |
| 4:33 |
: Dog training!
|
| 4:34 |
DogGraphs would use math to finally quantify question owners frequently ask: “Who’s a good dog?” |
| 4:34 |
: Nailed it
|
| 4:34 |
: Feel like there wasn’t enough baseball in this chat. Oh well. We are in baseball nothingness this week.
|
| 4:34 |
: Going to have to wrap it up. Take care all.
|
Neil Weinberg is the Site Educator at FanGraphs and can be found writing enthusiastically about the Detroit Tigers at New English D. Follow and interact with him on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44.
I’m not sure what the heck was going on here, but this easily had more laugh-out-loud moments than any chat I’ve read all year.