NERD Game Scores: Commence NL Wild-Card Thunderdome
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at Colorado| 15:10 ET
Weaver (33.2 IP, 70 xFIP-) vs. Marquez (5.1 IP, 118 xFIP-)
In Marcel Proust biopic Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome, a frenzied crowd chants “two men enter, one man leaves” before a gladiatorial duel that pits Mel Gibson against a developmentally disabled giant. Following wins by San Francisco and St. Louis last night — plus a loss by the Mets — the current National League wild-card situation bears some similarity to that post-apocalyptic mise-en-scène. Except, instead of perspiring Australians, the competitors are the three aforementioned clubs. And instead of two of them, there’s three. And also Tina Turner’s not there.
Here are the current standings and probabilities per this site’s methodology:
| Team | W | L | W% | EXPW | EXPL | rosW% | WC |
| Mets | 80 | 71 | .530 | 86.3 | 75.7 | .573 | 68.4% |
| Giants | 80 | 71 | .530 | 86.1 | 75.9 | .551 | 64.0% |
| Cardinals | 80 | 71 | .530 | 86.1 | 75.9 | .553 | 63.9% |
Less urgent but still notable is the pitching matchup here. St. Louis right-hander Luke Weaver has produced the highest strikeout rate (tied with Rich Hill) among all starters to record 20 or more innings over the last month. German Marquez, meanwhile, is scheduled to make his first major-league start. Owner of a plus fastball, he produced decidedly above-average strikeout and walk numbers as just a 21-year-old in the high minors.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.
One Other Brief Note
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Washington at Miami, starts at 19:10 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.
Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.
| Away | SP | TM | GM | TM | SP | Home | Time | ||
| Luke Weaver | STL | 10 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 9 | COL | German Marquez* | 15:10 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 | OAK | Daniel Mengden | 15:35 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | SEA | Felix Hernandez | 15:40 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 1 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 5 | BAL | Ubaldo Jimenez | 19:05 |
| Chris Sale | CHA | 9 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | PHI | Jerad Eickhoff | 19:05 |
| Ryan Weber* | ATL | 6 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | NYN | Bartolo Colon | 19:10 |
| Ian Kennedy | KC | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | CLE | Corey Kluber | 19:10 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYA | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | TB | Alex Cobb | 19:10 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | MIA | Tom Koehler | 19:10 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | CHN | John Lackey | 20:05 |
| Jered Weaver | LAA | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | TEX | Derek Holland | 20:05 |
| Buck Farmer* | DET | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | MIN | Jose Berrios | 20:10 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | MIL | Jimmy Nelson | 20:10 |
| Zack Greinke | AZ | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | SD | Luis Perdomo | 21:10 |
| Matt Moore | SF | 4 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | LAN | Kenta Maeda | 22:10 |
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.
* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of clueless author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Just when I thought I had to defend my hours of watching three teams wage internal and external struggle just to play a one game (with many lead changes and extra innings that make us question our own existence), and then to ultimately beat the Cubs in some excruciating 5 game series….signifying the end to my summer of bliss and the commencing a winter of bourbon and sweatpants, now I’m going to spend serious time reflecting upon this connection between Mad Max and Proust. Thanks. Appreciate it.
The Mets seems to specialize in pitchers who require special ad hoc NERD score bonuses. A few years ago R.A. Dickey prompted the introduction of the knuckleball bonus (which then seemed less appropriate after he left the Mets, and doesn’t always seem right for other knuckleballers), and frankly the idea that Bartolo Colon is a 4/10 for watchability is absurd. That he’s able to do what he does at his age and with his seemingly unimpressive arsenal is practically miraculous.
I do think the age part of the score should also give people credit for being old and also very good. Like, if you’ve managed to remain awesome while getting very old, like Bartolo, or at least to remain a big leaguer while getting very very old, like Jamie Moyer, that’s a story unto itself that merits watching the guy pitch as much as just being some 22-year-old kid does. And maybe the knuckleball thing should be adjusted so that it only kicks in for pitchers who are good? Dickey at his peak and Steven Wright when he’s pitching well are phenomena; knucklers being mediocre are not especially more watchable than normal pitchers being mediocre.