NERD Game Scores for Friday, September 4, 2015
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
Most Highly Rated Game
Texas at Los Angeles AL | 22:05 ET
Perez (43.2 IP, 99 xFIP-) vs. Richards (161.0 IP, 94 xFIP-)
While human efforts to predict baseball have been dismissed by scientists — scientists dressed in real lab coats, surrounded by beakers of roiling and unnamed chemicals — have been dismissed as an exercise in futility, the attempt to project baseball has at least some foundation in actual mathematics. The sort of projections available at FanGraphs suggested in April, May, June, July, and August — suggested in all those months that a future in which the Texas Rangers’ qualified for the 2015 postseason was an improbable one. As of today, however, it’s decidedly less improbable.
Regard, the club’s various odds on the fourth of each month, up to and including the fourth of September:
| Date | Division | Wild Card | Playoffs | Div Series |
| 4/4 | 0.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| 5/4 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| 6/4 | 3.7% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 6.6% |
| 7/4 | 2.9% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 5.7% |
| 8/4 | 3.4% | 12.5% | 15.9% | 9.3% |
| 9/4 | 20.1% | 40.9% | 60.9% | 39.1% |
Rocketed northward, is what those postseason odds have done metaphorically. Increased by over 50 percentage points, is what they’ve done literally. One, observing the Rangers, is observing a group of individuals whose actions have become surprisingly relevant — as surprising and relevant as the lyrics of a Jewel song immediately after having been dumped unexpectedly.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.
Another Brief Note
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Pittsburgh at St. Louis, starts at 22:15 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.
Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that the calculations both for team and game NERD scores have changed recently to better integrate playoff odds into same. Read more about those adjustments here and here.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Godley | AZ | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | CHN | Jon Lester | 14:20 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | WAS | Tanner Roark | 19:05 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TB | 6 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 9 | NYA | Luis Severino | 19:05 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 7 | TOR | Drew Hutchison | 19:07 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 9 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | DET | Kyle Lobstein | 19:08 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | CIN | Keyvius Sampson | 19:10 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYN | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | MIA | Tom Koehler | 19:10 |
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | BOS | Joe Kelly | 19:10 |
| John Danks | CHA | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | KC | Kris Medlen | 20:10 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 2 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 5 | HOU | Collin McHugh | 20:10 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 10 | STL | Carlos Martinez | 20:15 |
| Chris Heston | SF | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | COL | Jorge de la Rosa | 20:40 |
| Edgar Olmos* | SEA | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 7 | OAK | Aaron Brooks | 22:05 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 7 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 8 | LAA | Garrett Richards | 22:05 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LAN | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | SD | James Shields | 22:10 |
* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
A chart showing the odds of an individual looking forward to the September Twins-Astros series would have a similar trajectory.