NERD Game Scores: Shut Up, It’s Jharel Cotton’s Debut

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles AL at Oakland | 15:35 ET
Meyer (3.2 IP, 140 xFIP-) vs. Cotton (MLB Debut)
The author of this post recognizes that a game featuring two non-contending teams on the same day that, for example, talented pitcher Marcus Stroman is scheduled to start for the wildly competitive Blue Jays or, for example, talented pitcher David Price is scheduled to start for the wildly competitive Red Sox — that such a game probably isn’t Priority No. 1 for the public. Not unlike that light which knocked Paul to the ground, however, as he traveled to Damascus, right-handed Jharel Cotton is going to knock people to the ground as they travel to Damascus this afternoon. After that, he’s going to record his major-league debut for Oakland.

A fixture among the Fringe Five last year and this one, Cotton is a native of the Virgin Islands. Selected out of East Carolina University by the Dodgers in the 20th round of the 2012 draft, Cotton has produced elite strikeout and walk numbers throughout almost the entirety of his career in affiliated baseball. Part of the trade the sent Rich Hill and Josh Reddick to the Dodgers, Cotton has continued to produce elite strikeout and walk numbers as a member of the A’s system. With a fastball that sits 92-94, is how he does it. And with a plus-plus changeup.

Which, here’s an example of that changeup from spring training:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

Two Other Brief Notes
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Jharel Cotton and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

On NERD’s Playoff Adjustment, the Cubs, and the Rangers
As the season wears on, the algorithm for game NERD scores weights team scores progressively more heavily and pitcher scores less heavily — to account for the greater influence of a team’s posteason chances on the watchability of their games. Also as the season progresses, the algorithm for those team NERD scores weights various performance factors (weighted batting, adjusted home-run rate) less heavily and playoff odds more heavily.

The idea of the postseason adjustment is to assess higher NERD scores to clubs which feature less certainty regarding the postseason. To accomplish this, the author begins with the divisional odds and wild-card odds and finds the absolute value of each number minus 0.5 (or, 50%). I then add the results together divide by two. Then I subtract the result of that figure from 0.5 and multiply the resulting number by 20. Finally, I normalize all the scores to create a league average of 5.0.

Here’s all of that using the Chicago Cubs as an example. The Cubs have divisional and wild-card odds of 100.0% and 0.0%, respectively, using the site’s “coin flip” methodology (which seems to best represent how the human mind conceives of postseason odds).

• [ |1.000 – 0.5| + |0.000 – 0.5| ] / 2 = 0.500
• (0.5 – 0.500) * 20 = 0.0

That 0.0 number is the postseason adjustment just before it’s normalized to create a league average of 5.0. The raw league average right now is 1.70. So, to find the Cubs’ score we subtract that figure from 5.0 and add the difference to the Cubs’ raw score.

So:

• 0.0 + (5.0 – 1.70) = 3.3

That 3.3 represents Chicago’s current playoff adjustment — a figure to which the team’s NERD score will gravitate continuously as the season continues. It’s also the lowest possible score a club can receive at the moment, one shared mostly by very poor clubs that have been effectively (or literally) eliminated from postseason contention. Because, like those clubs, the Cubs aren’t playing games of any great consequence at the moment. Playing in a division where it appears as though 87 wins would be sufficient to claim that division, the Cubs have already recorded 89 wins. Which, that means they could lose every game for the rest of the season and still probably win the Central. A similar principle applies to the Texas Rangers, as well: they’ve already won 83 games, while second-place Houston is projected for just 87 wins.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.