NL MVP Dropoffs
While I firmly believe the comments made by Jimmy Rollins towards Philadelphia fans was a non-story, and, well, true, the fact is that he is having a very poor followup to his 2007 MVP campaign. Granted, some will argue that he should not have won the award in the first place, but he did, and his performance with the bat this year has been anything but award-worthy. Now, in the field, he has been a +8 shortstop this year to go along with his +7 last year and +12 in 2006. The issue, however, is that the perceived effectiveness of a player is generally born out of his offensive performance and production in timely situations.
In other words, WPA is a pretty good indicator of the MVP award, because voters aren’t going to stop and think about what would have happened if every plate appearance just counted as one (WPA/LI). They look at overall numbers, the clutchiness, and more like-factors. With that in mind, and with Rollins’ offensive struggles this year, I took a look at the MVP winners over the last twenty years (1988-2007), along with their WPAs in both the award year and the next year. The ultimate goal being to see if anyone else has had such a drastic perceived drop in effectiveness.
Year NAME WPA1 WPA2 WPA-Drop 1988 Kirk Gibson 5.00 0.87 -4.13 1989 Kevin Mitchell 6.91 2.86 -4.05 1990 Barry Bonds 5.63 7.99 2.36 1991 Terry Pendleton 3.57 4.81 1.24 1992 Barry Bonds 5.92 7.79 1.87 1993 Barry Bonds 7.79 4.82 -2.97 1994 Jeff Bagwell 5.79 4.70 -1.09 1995 Barry Larkin 3.96 3.54 -0.42 1996 Ken Caminiti 6.10 4.38 -1.72 1997 Larry Walker 6.65 2.63 -4.02 1998 Sammy Sosa 6.09 4.11 -1.98 1999 Chipper Jones 6.36 2.16 -4.20 2000 Jeff Kent 4.85 1.21 -3.64 2001 Barry Bonds 11.63 10.57 -1.06 2002 Barry Bonds 10.57 8.36 -2.21 2003 Barry Bonds 8.36 12.63 4.27 2004 Barry Bonds 12.63 0.26 -12.37 2005 Albert Pujols 4.15 9.57 5.42 2006 Ryan Howard 8.10 3.11 -4.99 2007 Jimmy Rollins 2.69 0.33 -2.36
Now, Gibson in 1989 and Bonds in 2005 were both injured and missed significant time, so their second year WPA numbers should be disregarded. Other than that, though, Rollins is not alone in his perceived dropoff. In fact, his dropoff from last year to right now is actually less than some others on this list. What also needs to be taken into account is how his WPA in the MVP year is the lowest of anyone in the last twenty years—so there is much less to drop off from—but he has not been the worst in terms of WPA differential between the award year and the year after. His .747 OPS is disappointing, but he has been solid in the field, and despite the criticism pointed towards him with the hustle or lack of puncuality, the situation could be much worse.
Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.
Does that WPA make Rollins the worst MVP ever? What a joke that Rollins has as many MVP awards as Pujols.