October Relief In Tampa

Last night, the Rays took an 8-6 lead into the 9th inning, looking to win their third straight game and put a bit more distance between themselves and the Red Sox in the A.L. East. Instead of walking away winners, however, they watched Dan Wheeler cough up the lead without retiring a batter, giving up four runs in the process, and they ended up 11-6 losers. Wheeler was pitching the 9th due to the recent struggles of Troy Percival, who has spent most of the year closing games for Tampa Bay but has looked vulnerable of late.

So, with a playoff spot a virtual certainty, the folks down in Tampa have to be deciding – just what should their playoff bullpen look like?

J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour have been outstanding all season, and give the team reliable relievers from both the right and left sides. Those two are definitely going to get high leverage innings in October. But what innings? And what about the other roles?

Wheeler’s obviously still in the mix – one bad outing doesn’t ruin a successful season. But his run prevention is built on a ridiculous .193 BABIP – his 4.27 FIP is more indicative of his real talent level. That makes him a solid bullpen guy, but nothing like a relief ace. Tampa would likely rather have him working the 7th inning than the 9th.

Chad Bradford and Trever Miller have the specialist roles locked up – they’re both good against same handed hitters, not so much against anyone else.

Those five have jobs, and for the most part, roles. But with four man rotations in October come the opportunities to have 7 or even 8 man bullpens, so there’s still some open spots.

Percival is likely to get one if he’s healthy, though it’s anyone’s guess how he’ll be used at this point. Do they allow such an extreme flyball guy to pitch in one run games? Unlikely. His home run problem probably takes him out of the mix at closer, so perhaps he joins Wheeler in middle relief, where he can be used in spots where a single bad pitch won’t turn the tide of the game.

That makes six. One, maybe two spots left, with Jason Hammel, Edwin Jackson, and David Price fighting for a spot on the playoff roster. You have to think that Hammel’s the odd man out here, as Jackson will be the long man coming out of the pen after spending the whole year in the five man rotation. And Price is just too talented to spend the postseason watching on TV. If they end up just carrying 7 relievers, though, do they go with Jackson or Price? Reward the guy who has given you innings all year or the phenom with upside? It’s an interesting question.

The folks running the Rays are smarter than me, but here’s my suggestion: Give as many high leverage innings as you can to Balfour and Howell, use Wheeler and Percival in the middle innings, spot Bradford and Miller as specialists in key at-bats, and go with Price over Jackson. Don’t pass up a chance to have a lefty throwing 95 coming out of the pen, especially if you think you’re going to have to go through Boston eventually.