Offense Wanted
Tampa Bay has been one of the fun, feel good stories of 2008. After nothing but failure in their franchises history, Tampa has finally been able to convert some of their talent into wins, and they currently have a comfortable three game lead over the Oakland Athletics in the A.L. Wild Card race. The brain trust in Tampa has been building this team around a young core of stars-in-the-making position players that include B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Evan Longoria.
However, interestingly enough, the Rays are winning in spite of their hitters. Indeed, it’s been the run prevention side of the ball that has Tampa in playoff contention for the first time. Their offense is a scoring 4.49 runs per game, basically league average, mostly due to the fact that Crawford (.266/.312/.371) and Pena (.227/.333/.430) have struggled significantly. Upton has maintained his role as the Rays best hitter, but even he has seen his power decline, launching just five home runs so far this year. They’ve gotten positive contributions from useful role players such as Dioner Navarro and Eric Hinske, but overall, the offense has been a disappointment and is the main reason they are no longer in first place in the A.L. East.
Instead, it’s been the pitchers carrying the load. As a team, they have a 4.01 FIP, good for fourth best in the A.L. Only Toronto, Chicago, and Oakland are getting better performances from their pitchers. Scott Kazmir has been unhittable since coming off the disabled list, while James Shields has been his usual consistent self. Edwin Jackson has flashed brilliance more often than not, so even with his inconsistency, he’s been a positive performer, and the back-end rotation guys in Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine have been solid if not spectacular.
It’s been the bullpen, however, that has been the biggest difference maker. Troy Percival, Dan Wheeler, and J.P. Howell have given the Rays a strong group to cover the 8th and 9th innings, and the bullpen’s performance is reflected in their league leading 4.63 WPA as a group – the highest of any team in the American League. When asked to perform in high leverage situations, Tampa’s bullpen has come through time after time. This is a radical change from last year’s pen that simply poured gasoline on every fire they could find, posting a -8.40 WPA over the season.
By improving the defense, getting better work from their relievers, and stabilizing the back end of the rotation, Tampa has built a winner in spite of the struggles of two of their best hitters. This team still needs Pena and Crawford to start hitting soon, but their unheralded teammates have kept them in the race and bought them enough time to do so.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I’ve been following the Rays out of the corner of my eye since the Kazmir trade and have been a fan of how they have managed the construction of their roster ever since. The obvious critical thought behind the contacts with Kazmir, Pena, Crawford, Longoria ,Sheilds Iwamura , Wheeler (the list is basically the whole roster) gives us fans of teams with lesser FO’s something to hope for.
When they got rid of Dukes however, was when I became convinced the Rays were the team of the AL east I’d like to see sitting atop it for years to come. I used to pull for the Jays to dethrone the Evil Empire and that Noxious Nation just because they were from Canada and it seemed a good a reason as any beyond simply wanting the fans of the Sox and Yanks alike to shut it..
Nice post Dave. Hope you continue to give the Rays the credit they deserve.