Offseason Notes for November 16th
Chicago (AL) lefty Chris Sale is one of the few major leaguers to play in khakis.
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.
1. Assorted Headlines
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
3. Prospecting: Baseball America’s Top-10 List for Chicago (NL)
Assorted Headlines
Confirmed: Sale to Start in 2012
White Sox general manager Ken Williams confirmed on Tuesday that left-hander Chris Sale will be a starting pitcher next season, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Sale, 22, was an enormously successful starter in college at Florida Gulf Coast University, but has pitched exclusively in relief for Chicago, posting this line in 2011: 71.0 IP, 27.4% K, 9.4% BB, 49.7% GB, 2.73 SIERA, 3.00 xFIP, 74 xFIP-. Dave Cameron discussed on Monday’s podcast (around the 8:10 mark) how Sale might profile as a starter. Mike Podhorzer reflects on the changes in Sale’s fantasy value over at RotoGraphs.
De Aza Likely to Start, Lead Off in 2012
“If I was making the lineup out,” the White Sox GM also told the Sun-Times’ Van Schouwen on Wednesday, “[Alejandro De Aza] would be my leadoff hitter.” De Aza hit .329/.400/.520 (.404 BABIP), .401 wOBA, 151 wRC+, in his age-27 season — a line that equates to 96 wRC+ with a .300 BABIP or 108 wRC+ with a .325 BABIP.
Brewers to Meet with Barmes Wednesday
Milwaukee general manager Doug Melvin has plans to meet Wednesday with the representative of free-agent shortstop Clint Barmes, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. As noted in these pages before, even a decent shortstop — and, thus, an improvement over Yuniesky Betancourt — would help mitigate the loss of Prince Fielder considerably. Despite below-average offensive production (he’s probably a ca 85 wRC+ true-talent hitter), Barmes’ defense is above average, both according to UZR and scouting reports.
SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
Batting Leaderboard
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Arizona Fall League (AFL). SCOUT represents an attempt to derive something meaningful from small samples and is the average of a player’s standard deviations from the AFL mean in three important (and regressed) stats: walk rate, strikeout rate, and home-run rate. (Click here for more on SCOUT. SCOUT leaderboards for the Arizona Fall League appear here on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. Leaderboards for the Venezuelan and Dominican Winter Leagues appear on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.)
| Name | Org | PA | xBB% | xK% | xHR% | BBz | Kz | HRz | SCOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | PIT | 124 | 13.8% | 15.4% | 4.0% | 0.86 | 0.70 | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| Wil Myers | KC | 102 | 14.9% | 18.2% | 3.2% | 1.11 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.50 |
| Jefry Marte | NYN | 90 | 11.5% | 15.8% | 3.3% | 0.34 | 0.63 | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| Brodie Greene | CIN | 87 | 10.7% | 14.9% | 3.3% | 0.14 | 0.79 | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| Michael Choice | OAK | 75 | 10.8% | 17.8% | 4.1% | 0.17 | 0.30 | 0.61 | 0.36 |
| Nolan Arenado | COL | 121 | 7.5% | 12.4% | 3.7% | -0.59 | 1.21 | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| Aaron Hicks | MIN | 114 | 12.8% | 17.3% | 2.7% | 0.63 | 0.37 | -0.03 | 0.32 |
| Alex Hassan | BOS | 92 | 12.4% | 16.9% | 2.6% | 0.54 | 0.45 | -0.09 | 0.30 |
| Logan Schafer | MIL | 104 | 8.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | -0.28 | 1.28 | -0.14 | 0.29 |
| Joe Panik | SF | 96 | 9.7% | 13.7% | 2.6% | -0.07 | 0.99 | -0.11 | 0.27 |
Notes
Perpetual SCOUT batting leader Robbie Grossman has recently broken his hamate bone and, in so doing, the hearts of his fans. Fortunately, not only do hitters make quick returns from hamate/wrist surgery, but, as our man Jeff Zimmerman has found, appear to display little so far as long-term effects are concerned. All indications point to Grossman being ready for spring training.
Pitching Leaderboard
For pitchers, SCOUT is the average of a player’s standard deviations from the AFL mean in (regressed) strikeout and walk rate.
| Name | Org | G | GS | IP | BF | xK% | xBB% | Kz | BBz | SCOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel De Los Santos | TEX | 8 | 5 | 25.1 | 106 | 28.2% | 9.8% | 1.88 | -0.13 | 0.88 |
| Travis Webb | CIN | 7 | 7 | 19.2 | 92 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 0.91 | -0.02 | 0.44 |
| Anthony Bass | SD | 6 | 5 | 21.2 | 94 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 0.72 | 0.15 | 0.44 |
| Tyler Lyons | STL | 7 | 7 | 29.2 | 124 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 0.63 | 0.18 | 0.41 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 5 | 5 | 15.0 | 59 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 0.66 | 0.06 | 0.36 |
| Nathan Adcock | KC | 6 | 6 | 24.1 | 103 | 21.2% | 8.2% | 0.47 | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| Patrick Lehman | WAS | 11 | 0 | 13.2 | 69 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 0.55 | 0.14 | 0.34 |
| Evan Reed | FLA | 12 | 0 | 14.0 | 59 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 0.66 | 0.02 | 0.34 |
| Nick Schmidt | SD | 7 | 3 | 20.1 | 97 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 0.76 | -0.13 | 0.32 |
| Stephen Harrold | SF | 11 | 0 | 14.1 | 56 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 0.59 | 0.01 | 0.30 |
Notes
Cincinnati minor-leaguer Travis Webb, 27, made his debut on the SCOUT leaderboard last Friday, was absent from same on Monday, but appears in the second spot on the present board. The rise is the result of a six-strikeout, four-inning performance on Monday. Webb now has as many Ks as innings pitched in every single one of his seven AFL starts. While promising, Webb’s performance must also be considered in the context of his age, as Webb is one of the older players in the AFL.
Prospecting: Baseball America on the Cubs
Baseball America has released its top-10 propsect list for the Chicago Cubs.
BA’s editors rank outfielder Brett Jackson first overall in the system. Jackson is noted for his tools and did slash .297/.388/.551 in 215 plate appearances following a mid-July promotion to Triple-A Iowa; however, he also benefited significantly from a .402 BABIP and the 29.8% strikeout rate he posted over that span is decidedly problematic. Bill James projects Jackson to post a .342 wOBA in 2012 — a mark that would make Jackson slightly above-average center fielder, were he to play average defense. That, of course, is predicated on the Cubs abandoning Tyler Colvin for the time being and moving Marlon Byrd to right field. With Jackson likely to hold some future value, it’s very likely he won’t debut until June or so.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Thoughts about Alejandro DeAza (ADA)
He will be an upgrade over Pierre in pretty much every phase of the game.
He will be exposed by playing him every day and not look as good as he did last year.
He will still be better than Pierre.
Where will he play? Will they move Quentin? Will they sit Rios or Dunn all year despite salary? Will they magically move one of those two? Will they not leave Viciedo in AAA for another year? I guess you could play those 5 guys in those 4 spots and get them all at bats but KW didn’t say.
C Pierzynski
1B Konerko
2B Beckham
3B Viciedo
SS Alexei
LF Quentin
CF De Aza
RF Rios
DH Dunn
I’ve seen Viciedo play 3B. It was…not pleasant. With Morel, Ramirez and Beckham the White Sox had an excellent defensive infield last year. Viciedo might cost them just as much on defense at 3B as they gain in offense.
In limited duty (and spring training before the wrist) he seemed like a much better corner OF.