One Night Only: Hot Game Previews for May 23rd
Chase Utley did a one-man adaptation of P.G. Wodehouse’s Jeeves and Wooster stories.
This edition of One Night Only contains:
1. Expanded previews for two games: Cincinnati at Philadelphia and Los Angeles (NL) at Houston.
2. Shorter, but no less charming, previews of three more games: Boston at Cleveland, Tampa Bay at Detroit, and Seattle at Minnesota.
3. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games.
Cincinnati (9) at Philadelphia (1) | 19:05 ET
Starting Pitchers
Reds: Bronson Arroyo (4)
57.0 IP, 6.32 K/9, 2.21 BB/9, .283 BABIP, 37.6% GB, 12.5% HR/FB, 3.89 xFIP, 105 xFIP-
Phillies: Cole Hamels (10)
61.2 IP, 9.34 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, .285 BABIP, 51.3% GB, 8.0% HR/FB, 2.44 xFIP, 63 xFIP-
Two Debuts
This game will feature at least one — and maybe two — notable debut(s): first, the season debut of Mr. Chase Utley and, second, the possible major-league debut of prospect Cincinnati prospect Todd Frazier.
A Note on Todd Frazier
Frazier has been, at certain points, what one might comfortably call a “top prospect,” having ranked 60th and 43rd on Baseball America’s top-100 prospect list in 2009 and 2010, respectively.
He has, at times in his minor-league career, played shortstop; however, he hasn’t played there at all this season at Triple-A Louisville, and looks destined to occupy a corner somewhere in either the in- or outfield.
One concern for Frazier has been contact. Last season — his first full one at Triple-A — he struck out in 26.5% of his at-bats. He’s cut that figure to 20.6% so far this season through 182 PAs, while maintaining his walk rate and power.
A Note on Chase Utley
Chase Utley is a famous British gentleman.
Los Angeles Nationals (3) at Houston (0) | 20:05 ET
Starting Pitchers
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (10)
64.0 IP, 9.84 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, .304 BABIP, 42.3% GB, 8.8% HR/FB, 2.91 xFIP, 79 xFIP-
Astros: Bud Norris (10)
55.0 IP, 10.47 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, .321 BABIP, 44.7% GB, 13.0% HR/FB, 2.84 xFIP, 77 xFIP-
Notes
• The starters for this game rank third (Norris) and fifth (Kershaw) in K/9 among qualified pitchers.
• Both pitchers get there by throwing excellent sliders.
• As in, they rank first (Norris) and fourth (Kershaw) in runs above average on their sliders.
• Science shows that Kerhsaw throws his (i.e. his slider) about 24% of the time.
• As for Norris, he throws his more than everyone but Brett Anderson, at 37.6%.
Three Other Games
Boston (6) at Cleveland (10) | 19:05 ET
• At one point, Boston considered Clay Buchholz (4) off-limits, opting instead to make Justin Masterson (7) part of a Victor Martinez deal.
Tampa Bay (8) at Detroit (2) | 19:05 ET
• I’ll be watching this at my in-laws’ in Northern Michigan and will likely make some sort of hilarious comment about same over here.
Seattle (1) at Minnesota (0) | 20:10 ET
• One of the saddest games imaginable.
Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.
pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD of 5 (or 10 for debuts)
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
“At one point, Boston considered Clay Buchholz (4) off-limits, opting instead to make Justin Masterson (7) part of a Victor Martinez deal”
Your point? I’d take Buchholz over Masterson in a heartbeat
I’ll invite you, if you have time, to develop that point.
My argument for Masterson is that he’s:
(a) Been better per FIP- and xFIP- than Buchholz.
(b) Is much cheaper (in terms of actual money and/or opportunity cost) than Buchholz (to whom the Red Sox owe $29m over the next four years).
(c) Slightly younger than Buchholz.
Buchholz certainly has the better pedigree and has shown flashes of excellence (as in his past three starts), but I find it difficult to see how one would take him over Masterson in “a heartbeat.”
I love Masterson (who doesnt?). But I still don’t think he’ll have any kind of sustained success as a starter unless he figures out a way to get lefties out.
*Righties.
**Lefties.
I’m still drunk.
“Is much cheaper (in terms of actual money and/or opportunity cost) than Buchholz (to whom the Red Sox owe $29m over the next four years).”
If Masterson continues to pitch to his current level, he’ll make close to what Buchholz is making in arbitration anyway. If he doesn’t, it’s because he never got past his career awful lefty numbers. Masterson’s compiling solid stats against the dregs of the AL Central right now. His one game this season against a team currently over .500 was a disaster.
I liked Masterson, but I have to imagine most baseball professionals would probably pick Buchholz on a pure stuff and projectability standpoint.