Picking the 2016 American League All-Stars
The All-Star Game is just a couple of weeks away, so it’s time for the annual tradition of deciding which really good players get acknowledged and which really good players get left out. The fact that there’s no shortage of ways to define who should make the All-Star team doesn’t help; is it about just gathering as many big namem players as possible every summer, about rewarding the players who have performed the best so far this year, or some combination of the two?
I tend to lean towards rewarding in-season performance, while using career track record as secondary variable to help make the decision when picking between multiple worthy players. Yes, some guys are going to have great half-seasons and end up on the team despite not truly being long-term stars, but I prefer that over jogging out the same 34 names every summer just because they’re the guys we’re used to recognizing as stars, regardless of what they’ve actually done that season. To me, the All-Star Game is a reward for the players who are playing at a high level, and what you’ve done this season is the most important variable in selecting the rosters.
For my selections, I’m adhering to the MLB rules, so we’re picking 22 position players and 12 pitchers, and every team has to have a representative. Yes, even the Twins. Because some positions are performing much better than others — I’m looking at you, sorry sack of 2016 AL catchers — I did take some liberties with how many players get carried as reserves at each spot, but overall, I tried to pick a team that would satisfy the requirements of how the game is managed and still rewards 34 guys who deserve to make the trip to San Diego this summer. And injured players aren’t eligible for my picks, as I’m just going with players who are healthy enough to play in the game in a couple of weeks.
On to the roster!
| Position | Player | Team | 2016 WAR | Past Year WAR |
| C | Salvador Perez | Royals | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| 1B | Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| 2B | Jose Altuve | Astros | 4.4 | 7.5 |
| SS | Manny Machado | Orioles | 4.2 | 7.4 |
| 3B | Josh Donaldson | Blue Jays | 4.3 | 9.3 |
| LF | Ian Desmond | Rangers | 3.9 | 5.3 |
| CF | Mike Trout | Angels | 4.9 | 9.7 |
| RF | Jackie Bradley Jr. | Red Sox | 3.1 | 5.8 |
| DH | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 3.1 | 6.3 |
Perez is having a nice year, but he also wins by default; there is no other option for the position this year. The Red Sox really need to hurry up and trade for Jonathan Lucroy, because the AL catching crop is currently a disaster.
On the infield, I went with Machado at shortstop, given that’s where he’s played most of his games this year, and both he and Donaldson are among the very best players in the game, and both deserve to be in the starting line-up. The decision to put Machado at SS does mean that there isn’t a starting spot for two other young shortstops having amazing years, but such is life at the position right now; what the league lacks behind the plate it’s more than making up for at SS.
In the outfield, you’re only ever really making two picks; which guys should flank Mike Trout? Bradley has more than earned his way into a job, and Desmond’s resurgence as a terrific outfielder — while also having the best offensive season of his career — makes him worthy of recognition, though there are plenty of other terrific options who could also be good picks in left field. But Desmond’s MVP-caliber first half — if he played in a league without Mike Trout, anyway — has been a huge reason the Rangers are running away with the AL West, and he gets the nod from me here.
| Position | Player | Team | 2016 WAR | Past Year WAR |
| C | Stephen Vogt | Athletics | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 1B | Chris Davis | Orioles | 2.1 | 6.4 |
| 1B | Edwin Encarnacion | Blue Jays | 2.0 | 5.6 |
| 2B | Robinson Cano | Mariners | 3.1 | 5.9 |
| 2B | Ian Kinsler | Tigers | 2.6 | 5.6 |
| 2B | Brian Dozier | Twins | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| SS | Xander Bogaerts | Red Sox | 3.9 | 6.7 |
| SS | Francisco Lindor | Indians | 3.6 | 8.1 |
| 3B | Evan Longoria | Rays | 2.8 | 4.8 |
| OF | Mookie Betts | Red Sox | 2.7 | 5.6 |
| OF | Mark Trumbo | Orioles | 1.6 | 2.8 |
| OF | Nelson Cruz | Mariners | 1.6 | 4.4 |
| OF | Michael Saunders | Blue Jays | 1.7 | 1.7 |
Yeah, I’m only carrying one backup catcher, and yes, Stephen Vogt is only really here because the A’s need a representative; Marcus Semien got aced out at shortstop by the ridiculous group of peers he’s up against, though he’d be the A’s rep if there weren’t a crowd at his position already. You could make a case for Matt Wieters or Brian McCann, but let’s be honest, none of these guys are really having amazing seasons, and taking another catcher would mean we’d have to cut a more worthy hitter from another position. So I went with one backstop and four outfielders, given that two of the OFs I’m carrying probably shouldn’t play the field.
I feel bad not finding a starting spot for Bogaerts or Lindor, but really, there are just too many great AL middle infielders right now. They definitely deserve recognition, but Machado has just been a little bit better, and for a little bit longer.
Dozier makes the team as the token Twin, as his hot streak allows us to not have to send Eduardo Nunez to the All-Star Game. Thanks for getting hot, Dozier! Given the three second baseman ahead of him on the depth chart, though, he might end up just pinch-running.
In the outfield, Trumbo and Cruz have slugged enough to overcome their defensive deficiencies, especially since we’re starting three guys who can play center field. Betts and Saunders are the real backups in the OF, though I would have liked to find room for George Springer and Carlos Beltran; both are having good years but just can’t quite crack the 34 man roster.
For the listed WARs, I’m just using a 50/50 mix of FIP-WAR and RA9-WAR, since showing both would make the table cumbersome.
| Position | Player | Team | 2016 WAR | Past Year WAR |
| SP | Chris Sale | White Sox | 3.3 | 5.5 |
| SP | Danny Salazar | Indians | 3.2 | 5.4 |
| SP | Steven Wright | Red Sox | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| SP | Jose Quintana | White Sox | 3.0 | 6.3 |
| SP | Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 2.6 | 3.2 |
| SP | Corey Kluber | Indians | 2.8 | 5.2 |
| RP | Wade Davis | Royals | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| RP | Andrew Miller | Yankees | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| RP | Zach Britton | Orioles | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| RP | Dellin Betances | Yankees | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| RP | Kelvin Herrera | Royals | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| RP | Will Harris | Astros | 1.7 | 2.1 |
The starting pitching options are a bit lackluster this year, while the AL is overflowing with great relievers. Even going with six of each, I still had to leave Craig Kimbrel at home, but I don’t feel too bad about any of the starters who didn’t quite make the cut; Masahiro Tanaka would be the seventh starter if I wasn’t allowed to carry equal numbers of SPs and RPs.
The toughest pick was actually deciding which Blue Jay to take, as Marco Estrada is also having an excellent year, but in the end, Sanchez is doing it in a more sustainable way, and his stuff will play up more in a one inning appearance. Estrada could certainly be here, but since it’s close, I’ll take the guy throwing 98 to help the AL get another shutdown arm coming out of the pen.
As for who gets the start, the next few appearances by Sale and Salazar should settle that, but it’s close enough to argue for either one. On track record, I’d lean Sale, but Salazar has certainly pitched himself into the conversation.
So that’s my AL squad. Tomorrow, we’ll tackle the NL, and try to sort through the 50 deserving starting pitchers over there.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Beltran > Saunders….hes better than him in every category accept OBP. Then again this is a saber site and everyone here masturbates to OBP so ill probably get a billion downvotes for this
I actually happen to agree with you but you can still have a downvote for being an ass about it.
Ask and ye shall receive!
I think here in Fangraphs we like wRC+ more than pure OBP, and Saunders > Beltran in that category, as well as defensive metrics and WAR, so it’s not as simple as you put it. Either one could fill that spot.
Also, he’s better than Saunders by .007 in AVG and .010 in SLG. This is the hill you’re going to die on?
If FG being a “saber site” gets you so worked up, why are you here?
you must be a pretty cool customer if you describe what i wrote above “getting worked up”….and yeah I’m perfectly fine dying on this hill.
If that post is indicative of the way you act when you’re NOT “worked up”, you must have some certifiable personality disorders. You have my sympathies.
Agreed, I like that you just preemptively whine about “getting a million down votes” just to try and head off any legitimate discussion.
And red is right, you’re absolutely “worked up”. Had to rush to register your consternation with the very first comment.
I masturbate to WHIP because I’m into S&M.
it’s not saunders who you want to boot out for beltran.
it’s mookie.
Despite Beltran having a good case Saunders has a 145 wRC+ to Beltran’s 136 and defense actually matters too. But sure pin it on 1 thing that you don’t agree with. By the way the gap in average is .004 and the gap in slugging is .010 while the gap in OBP is .033 so way to complain about nothing.
I gave you a downvote because you spelled “except” as “accept”
Jimbo, just accept OBP.
No love for Kole Calhoun? Better defensively and playing in a home park that crushes left handed hitters. Easily the better player overall.
Roll your bones into the sea.
It’s an All Star game and Beltran is most likely a Hall of Fame player. Beltran is greater than Saunders in star power and this season in ACTUAL production on the field.
When I go to sort by “ACTUAL” I get a NaN error.
This is a great list and probably better than anything else we’ll see on the internet over the next two weeks. It’s almost certainly better than the actual team will be, and I’m sure everyone has their own bias, but this is fangraphs dot com. How is Mark Trumbo a better choice than George Springer?
AL East bias obviously. They don’t call him Dave Cam[den Yards]eron for nothing.
I’m going to call him that from now on. Thanks.
Trumbo has easily out hit him but I can see the argument.
I know you name-checked Springer but I don’t see the argument for Cruz, Saunders, or Trumbo over him. He’s got significantly higher WAR, played great defense and has been the second best hitter on the Astros all year. For you, what reasoning puts those three higher than Springer?
Cruz is at 375/139 wOBA/wRC+, Saunders is 392/145, and Trumbo is 377/134, which are each significantly better than Springer’s 355/121. Springer is a decent, not great defender, so I think the offensive edge pushes those three above him. He’d be the next guy in, but doesn’t quite edge those three out for me.
Using OFF+DEF, incorporating baserunning too, it’s Springer at +9.6 (9.7, -0.1), Saunders at +6.9 (+14.4, -7.5), Cruz at +4.8 (+11.7, -6.9) and Trumbo at +4.1 (+13.8, -9.7). Springer, yes, only has a 121 wRC+, but he also has 370 PA, tied with Betts for the most among AL OF, 16 ahead of Eaton and almost 40 ahead of the leader among Saunders/Cruz/Trumbo. That shrinks their offensive value leads. Using batting runs, it’s Springer 9.6, Saunders 16.0, Cruz 15.7, Trumbo 13.7. Springer more than makes up the difference by playing above average RF defense (+4 UZR) and being a scratch baserunner with more playing time. If I had to pick seven outfielders as Dave did, it’d be Trout, Betts, JBJ, Desmond, Springer, Eaton and either Cruz or Trumbo, though I’d rather reward both and carry just one catcher, and then carry Rich Hill as the OAK rep.
Springer could be considered a great fielder. It just depends on your choice of metric. Eaton and Pillar are the only outfielders with a higher DRS.
I think the argument for Trumbo and Cruz is the notion that they may not see the field at all with a DH spot and five other OF-ers on the team. As a player/outfielder Springer has just been way better this year:
fWAR/bWAR: Springer: 2.3/3.3, Trumbo: 1.6/1.4, Cruz: 1.6/2.1
Minor error – Vogt was worth 2.3 fWAR last year, not 0.8.
It’s WAR over the past 365 days, not 2015 WAR.
Gotcha, reading is hard.
My guess is Quintana loses out because his record will wrongly overshadow his quality and the White Sox already will have Sale on the team.
What about Adam Eaton? He’s got 2.6 WAR, and 5.6 in the last calendar year. Is he being punished because a lot of his value is coming from defense?
Maybe this year much of his WAR is tied to his defense, but last year most of his WAR was tied to his offense because he was a poor defender. If we are using past calendar year as a basis of judgment, as this article is, Eaton has been the 7th best OF’er in baseball.
Why is Cabrera starting over Davis?
Valid question. Cabrera is the greater player, but I was surprised at how much better Davis has been over the past year.
God bless you dave for putting Machado at starting SS. Anything else is insanity.
I’m with you pretty much 100% of the way on all the choices…..except for our little buddy Betts, who just isn’t having an all star calibre year for a corner OF, even though we love him.
Just for additonal info, if we buttress these numbers by looking only at wrc+ and ignoring the small sample defense completely (and let’s face it, defense is never at a premium in allstar selections), it would look like this using the same current/calender year breakdown as Dave used:
(only guys who qualify this year)
CF Trout 169 / 174
RF Beltran 136 / 136
LF Saunders 145 / 145
3B Donaldson 157 / 160
SS Machado 160 / 143
2B Altuve 166 / 151
1B Encarnacion 137 / 159
DH Ortiz 182 / 182
C Perez 119 / 97
CF Bradley 144 / 143
RF Trumbo 134 / 133
LF Cruz 139 / 151
3B Valencia 144 / 137
SS Bogaerts 135 / 127
2B Cano 145 / 149
1B Cabrera 139 / 139
DH Davis 125 / 152
C Wieters 108 / 99
CF Desmond 135 / 116
RF Springer 121 / 127
LF Calhoun 123 / 116
3B Seager 125 / 123
SS Lindor 123 / 133
2B Kinsler 124 / 127
1B Hosmer 128 / 129
DH Martinez 136 / 108
C McCann 106 / 97
lol at how many of these OF actually have been worth less than Betts.
Machado has been a relatively ordinary fielding SS so far this year, while he is a superlative fielding 3Bman. Considering that 40% of his fielding time has been spent at 3B, I think your definition of “insanity” needs reworking.
Note: I’m not saying it’s wrong to put him in at SS, just that it would be perfectly reasonable to slot him at 3B too.
I dunno. Perfectly capable SS glove who has played the majority of his time at SS.
Saunders, Cruz, and Trumbo over Eaton?
That seems a bit odd. Eaton Better over the past year, and Eaton been much better this season; if we value fWAR as a statistic. Is he being left off because HR’s are more highly regarded than overall production?
Offense, not HRs specifically. Much of Eaton’s value this season is coming from his defense in RF, and those numbers aren’t yet entirely trustworthy.
I agree. I see a case for Beltran and Springer (though they both just miss for me) but Eaton doesn’t cut it, in large part because UZR and DRS both put him in the Pillar/Heyward/Kiermeier level of defense this year, when he had never been that good previously. It seems likely that since he is in a new position this year, the defensive metrics haven’t quite caught up yet and his defense is being overrated. Since he is basically a league average bat and hasn’t added anything on the basepaths, he’s not in the conversation for me.
Well he’s playing an entirely different position so I’m not sure what his past numbers have to do with anything in terms of defense.
Eaton definitely passes the eye test in RF too; he’s been spectacular.
By the numbers, he was a lousy defensive CF last year, at -14 DRS and -10.6 UZR/150, good for 57th and 55th among the 60 qualified OF. This year he has 17 DRS, which leads all of baseball, not just OF, and a 24.2 UZR/150, 6th out of 64 qualified OF. It seems unlikely, although not impossible, that he went from being one of the worst outfielders in baseball to one of the best simply by moving from CF to RF. While I am sure he is indeed a better RF than CF and some of the improvement is real, it seems more likely that the defensive metrics simply haven’t adjusted yet and his fielding is currently being overrated. So, in my mind, his average hitting isn’t enough to push him onto the team since the defensive numbers seem suspect.
His defensive numbers have been backed up in an article by Fangraphs; a combination of luck with opportunities and overall great performance on those chances. His arm has also been, arguably, the most valuable arm in baseball. He’s also a very good base runner. Elite defense, very good base running, and average hitting equates to a 2.6 WAR player, and over the past year he has a top 7 OF’er WAR. I’m not sure what more you need to convince you that he’s been a very good to elite player.
You are using defensive stats in Center during a year in which he wasn’t only hurt, but played poorly. The shift to right has suited him very well.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-watch-adam-eaton-save-12-runs/
He has been an elite defensive OF’er. His metrics say so. The eye test says so. You have yet to present a fact disputing this; you continue to point to CF, which is completely irrelevant. Look no further than Heyward who is an average CF’er (which Eaton was in 2014), and has been the best defensive outfielder in RF the past few years. Comparing the two positions is like comparing 2nd and SS because they are both in the IF.
My point is that right now we are forced to evaluate a small sample size and there is not enough data to determine if he is actually an elite defender in RF or had a few good/lucky months. In the article you linked to, he had saved 12 runs by May 8th, but is currently at 17, meaning those first 12 likely came in a SSS-impacted defensive hot streak (for lack of a better term) over the first 5 weeks of the season and he has come back to earth in the last 7 weeks. His previous CF experience is relevant because we have 2840 innings of CF defense to evaluate that concluded he was an okay defender, with -6 DRS and -10.4 UZR/150 over that time period. In his 601 innings in RF, he is suddenly at 19 DRS and 31.9 UZR/150. Again, I acknowledge that he is a better RF than CF, but I have a hard time believing that he is suddenly the best RF in all of baseball, by a large margin. If he continues at this level for another 1000 innings, I will stand corrected.
On your baserunning point, he has been a great baserunner in the past (3rd among OF last year in UBR) and a meh baserunner in the past (23rd in UBR in 2014), but has not been good this year with a UBR ranking 35th out of 59 qualified OF, tied with Trumbo, among others. I have no idea how UBR is impacted by SSS, but his career numbers would seem to indicate that he is somewhere around an average baserunner.
Even if his defense is for real, he’s basically Pillar or Kiermaier with a slightly better bat. Those are nice, valuable players that any team would be lucky to have, but not quite all-stars in my book.
Come back to earth? You think saving 5 runs every 50 days is coming back to earth? That would have been the best pace in baseball last year for an OF’er. I already acknowledged that he was the beneficiary of an inordinate amount of opportunities to start the year off but he capitalized on those opportunities.
Eaton’s past 365 WAR – more specifically last year – is more tied to his offense than defense since he was a poor defender.
Comparing him to Pillar and Kierme when he’s been a top 7 OF’er over the past calendar year is just disingenuous. You either respect the metrics or you don’t. You can’t pick and chose what ones have value. A 5.6 WAR over a calendar year is a VERY VERY good player, and certainly an all-star caliber outfielder.
He had an OPS+ of 123 last year, and 120 the year before. Pillar was 94 and 95. Certainly more than “slightly better.” You are short changing Eaton.
So I’m guessing hitting is the only evaluation metric worthy of consideration? Otherwise, how is Beltre not the starter by a landslide at 3rd? Yes he’s about half Donaldson’s batting WAR, but he’s on another planet in defensive metrics compared to Donaldson. Biggest omission to me, although you did try to address the problem by putting Machado at SS.
You can’t possibly be serious…
Beltre is a really good player, but Donaldson is not only the best thirdbaseman, his the third best postion player in baseball this year
Beltre is 37th in WAR with 2.3. His offensive WAR is 1.7 and his defensive WAR is 10.2
Donaldson is ***3rd***, in all of baseball. (He’s also ahead of Machado…)
His overall WAR is 4.4, his offensive WAR is 27.3, which is a lot more than twice as much as Beltre’s, and his defensive WAR is 3.6.
Donaldson (AL)- 4.4
Machado (AL)- 4.2
Bryant- 4.0
Arenado- 3.4
Carpenter- 3.4
Longoria (AL)- 3.0
Lamb- 3.0
Seager (AL)- 2.3
Beltre (AL)- 2.3
I understand being a homer if it’s close, but it’s not…
Yeah, this…this was not a fruitful suggestion. I like that you put “by a landslide” also, as though it would be ludicrous to even CONSIDER anyone other than Beltre.
I know it’s fun rooting for a player or team, but…c’mon man.
I’d make a few changes here and there. I feel Springer and Eaton deserve serious OF consideration before the guys you included. For me, there’s a clear top-6 in the AL OF, and then there’s a mishmosh of guys like Beltran, Trumbo, Cruz, Saunders, Calhoun, Cain and Mazara, though Cain is obviously hurt now.
Not enough text about Michael Saunders.
I’m looking forward to the reaction when Ned Yost puts Whit Merrifield on the team.
If he doesn’t get selected, his family will be more outraged than when he didn’t get into the finishing school of his choice. THEY BOUGHT A WHOLE BUILDING HOW DOES THAT NOT COUNT FOR SOMETHING.
I’m fine with the methodology and choices made here. I’m also quite okay with the late thirties HOF-caliber players who are having solid years being in the game. Give me your Beltres, your Beltrans, and David Ortizes. They may not deserve it, but the all-star game won’t be the poorer for their presence, either.
I don’t necessarily disagree with your larger point, but just as an aside, David Ortiz has been the best hitter in baseball this year, has almost twice the WAR of the second-best DH, and is #10 in AL position-player WAR despite the DH penalty. If that’s not deserving of a spot, independent of the fact that he’s 40 and in his last season, I don’t know what is.
Can’t disagree with the decision to go with Machado as the starting SS, but man does Lindor’s 8+ WAR over the past season look funny on a reserve list. Crazy how deep that position is.
To the casual fan and because of the hype generated for other young shortstops around the league, Lindor is probably the most under-rated player in the sport right now.
. . . but if he keeps hitting and fielding like he is now, he’ll be as big a star to the national media as he is to this Cleveland fan.
Jose Quintana may beg to differ with you on the underrated part. Really, they’re like 1A and 1B.
Idea: I think that when Quintana pitches to Lindor, all baseball broadcasts should be required to give a “live look-in.”
Gotsta educate them masses
Good list. A couple of areas to think about, one is that usually 2 backup catchers make the roster, so even though the position is a black hole this year (with exception to Salvy), I would’ve picked Brian McCann to go on the team. And I definitely would rather see Adrian Beltre on the team than have to include a Twin, but rules are rules…
I forget, does FIP include IFFB? Because if it doesn’t, that could be one major reason why Estrada has such a giant difference between FIP and ERA. 17% IFFB is insane. I know WAR includes it and he’s got 1.8, which is 11th in the AL. Most of those guys in that group have a 3.4-3.6 FIP, so I would assume with IFFB included Estrada would be around that as well.
The 189 BABIP isn’t sustainable, but his 253 career BABIP shows he’s clearly a guy, like Chris Young, who can maintain a low BABIP. When you combine the ability to induce weak contact, with his IFFB, and add that to his FIP, it makes more sense why his ERA is so far below his FIP. Not this low, but that’s an issue of FIP not including IFFB. He does a lot of things well that FIP doesn’t value, and while I know he can’t maintain a BABIP this low, he should be able to consistently beat his FIP. It’s like with a knuckleballer, or other pitchers like Chris Young who induce weak contact – you expect the ERA to be lower than the FIP. For the record, Young is 3.82 ERA/4.53 FIP, so Estrada being 0.4-0.6 runs lower on his ERA than FIP makes sense. And if I’m right, and he’s a 3.4-3.6 FIP guy with IFFB included, then all of a sudden his performance might be a bit more sustainable.
Might be time to recognize Estrada as one of those guys who can beat his FIP by a significant amount. And that, maybe it’s time to add IFFB to the FIP calculation, as it’s just as good as a K. When you combine a 17% IFFB with an 8K/9 that you’re getting a ton of easy outs.
No, he’s not blowing guys away, but he doesn’t have to. He does a pretty damn good job of keeping runs on the board by inducing weak contact, and getting a ton of easy outs via K/iFFB.
FIP does not include IFFB. Pitcher WAR does account for IFFB.
BRAD BRACH. Come on.
I knew the comments on ASG picks would be 80% awful, and yet here I am. When will I learn?