Porcello to the Show
Yesterday, the Detroit Tigers announced that 20-year-old Rick Porcello had won a spot in their starting rotation. He will open the season with the Tigers despite having never pitched above Single-A, as Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland are betting on talent being more important than experience.
Is Porcello ready to make a three level jump and hold his own in the big leagues before he’s legally allowed to drink? There are reasons to think so.
When most people look at his 2008 line, the 5.18 K/9 jumps out – that’s a remarkably low strikeout rate for a guy with top notch stuff in the minor leagues. Most elite pitching prospects strike out more than a batter per inning, especially in the lower levels. Porcello simply wasn’t missing bats all that often, and that is seen as a red flag by many.
However, there can be different ways of dominating minor league hitters, and while Porcello wasn’t racking up the strikeouts, he was among the most dominating groundball pitchers in the minors. 65% of his balls in play were hit on the ground, easily leading the league. Porcello got a ton of ground balls while also avoiding walks, posting a very good 2.38 BB/9. He showed excellent command of his sinker, which allowed him to succeed without racking up a lot of strikeouts.
The combination of no walks and lots of ground balls is a recipe for success in the majors. It might not be as flashy as racking up huge strikeout totals, but it’s still a good combination. If Porcello can continue to command his sinker, he has the tools to pitch in the major leagues right now. Chris Volstad had a very successful run last summer with a similar skillset, and Porcello has better stuff than Volstad.
It’s certainly possible that Porcello will struggle, as a lot of 20-year-old pitchers do when thrust into the majors. However, don’t make the mistake of assuming that just because he didn’t rack up a lot of strikeouts in the Florida State League, he doesn’t have what it takes to succeed in the majors. Strikeouts aren’t the only way a pitcher can dominate. Porcello has the strikes and ground balls skillset, and that combination works in the big leagues.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Plus the Tigers told him to work on his 2-seamer and his command and pitch efficiency, rather than blowing away hitters with his 4-seamer and breaking balls
I haven’t read anything that says the Tigers had implored Porcello to use the 2-seamer, however, there was an interview from last summer with Porcello that said he prefers to use the 2-seamer and that scouting reports of him when he was in high school weren’t wrong, just a bit off as he was not a guy that threw a lot of 4-seamers. He likes getting the ground balls.