Projecting the College Players Taken on Day Three of the Draft

by
June 13, 2016

On Friday, I published a post projecting the players taken on day one of the draft. On Saturday, I did the same for the players taken on day two. Let’s see what my math says about the college players taken on day three of draft, which covered rounds 11-40. The vast majority of these players will flame out in the minor leagues over the next couple of years, and you’ll never hear from them again. But at least a few of them will go on to play in the big leagues.

As a reminder, I only have projections for college players who logged at least 100 plate appearances or batters faced in select major NCAA conferences this year, including the: AAC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big West, Pac 12 and SEC. I do not have projections for high-school players.

Below, you’ll find thoughts on some players of note from rounds 11-40, followed by a giant, sortable table with projections for all drafted players for whom I have projections. The cumulative WAR projections will probably feel a bit low to you. They feel low to me too. For this reason, I recommend you don’t take the projections themselves literally, but instead use them to compare draftees to other draftees.

*****

337. Chad Donato, RHP, Houston

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 2.1

Donato pitched excellently in West Virginia’s rotation. His strikeout- and walk-rate differential was among the best for starters in major conferences. The Astros have several KATOH darlings in this group. Houston’s front office has either hacked my computer or is doing something similar to what I’m doing.

*****

352. Luke Persico, OF, Oakland

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.8

Persico slapped tons of singles this year, resulting in a team-leading .323 batting average for UCLA. He’s shown very little by way of power and walks, but that can be forgiven given his youth. Although he’s a junior, he doesn’t turn 21 until October, making his performance all the more impressive.

*****

360. Brandon Lawson, RHP, Rays

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.9

South Florida righty Brandon Lawson was one of the top performers in the AAC this year. He didn’t miss a ton of bats, but tossed over 100 innings of 2.50 ERA ball.
*****

367. Carmen Benedetti, IF/LHP, Houston

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.1

Benedetti was announced as a left-handed pitcher even though he threw just a few relief innings at Wake Forest. He’s projected here as a hitter, in which role he controlled the strike zone excellently and showed doubles power as a collegiate. His game is built around walks and doubles.

*****

387. Reggie McClain, RHP, Seattle

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.8

A senior out of Missouri, McClain allowed just nine walks in over 100 innings of work. He posted a pedestrian strikeout rate as a senior, but KATOH likes his work limiting walks.

*****

388. Brady Bramlett, RHP, Boston

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.8

Bramlett fanned 96 batters in 82 innings out of Mississippi’s rotation without walking too many. KATOH loves its high-strikeout guys.

*****

392. Gavin Collins, C, Cleveland

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.9

Collins raked at Mississippi State. He drew walks and hit for power, resulting in a .302/.405/.516 slash line. I know nothing about Collins’ defense, but if he can somehow stick at catcher, he could be an extremely interesting prospect.

*****

543. Timmy Richards, SS, Minnesota

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.1

Richards’ projection doesn’t jump off the page, but it was one of the very best among Big West players. He strikes out a bit much for KATOH’s liking, but his power output makes him interesting. He’s also a shortstop, so he also has some defensive value that isn’t accounted for by his projection.

*****

556. Austin Sexton, RHP, St. Louis

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.0

Nothing in particular stands out about Sexton’s profile, but he was solid all around at Mississippi State. He put up an unremarkable 3.56 ERA, but KATOH likes the strikeout and walk numbers.

*****

592. Brigham Hill, RHP, Athletics

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.9

Hill pitched well as a swingman for Texas A&M. He was one of the SEC’s most effective pitchers as a 20-year-old sophomore.

*****

606. Jack Kruger, C, Los Angeles (AL)

Proj. WAR thru age-27: o.6

Another Mississippi State catcher, Kruger flashed impressive power in his junior season. His doubles-centric approach intrigues KATOH.

*****

887. Elliott Barzilli, 3B, Houston

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.5

Although he fell all the way to the 29th round, Barzilli checks some key boxes for KATOH: he makes lots of contact and has doubles power. He hit .358 at TCU with a bunch of doubles and triples.

*****

Here are projections for all the college players selected from the conferences mentioned in the introduction. MLB% denotes the probability of the relevant player ever making the majors.

Projections for College Draft Picks: Rounds 11-40
Round Pick Name Team Position MLB% WAR
11 322 Eli White Athletics SS 6% 0.0
11 323 Chad Smith Marlins RHP 14% 0.4
11 325 Zachary Houston Tigers RHP 7% 0.1
11 326 Ian Hamilton White Sox RHP 17% 0.1
11 332 Andrew Calica Indians OF 2% 0.0
11 335 Jason Delay Giants C 1% 0.0
11 337 Chad Donato Astros RHP 61% 2.1
11 338 Connor Jones Yankees LHP 21% 0.5
11 346 John Kilichowski Cardinals LHP 3% 0.0
12 350 Brandon Gold Rockies RHP 7% 0.0
12 351 Trever Morrison Brewers SS 7% 0.0
12 352 Luke Persico Athletics OF 50% 0.8
12 353 Mike King Marlins RHP 3% 0.0
12 358 Matthew Gorst Red Sox RHP 17% 0.1
12 360 Brandon Lawson Rays RHP 36% 0.9
12 361 Max Knutson Orioles LHP 2% 0.0
12 364 Hayden Howard Nationals LHP 3% 0.0
12 366 Bo Tucker Angels LHP 10% 0.1
12 367 Carmen Benedetti Astros IF/LHP 37% 1.1
12 368 Taylor Widener Yankees RHP 30% 0.5
12 369 Alex Kowalczyk Rangers C 6% 0.0
12 374 Trey Cobb Cubs RHP 33% 0.2
12 375 Arden Pabst Pirates C 1% 0.0
13 383 Nick Eicholtz Marlins RHP 4% 0.0
13 387 Reggie McClain Mariners RHP 25% 0.8
13 388 Brady Bramlett Red Sox RHP 31% 0.8
13 390 Nathaniel Lowe Rays 1B 16% 0.4
13 392 Gavin Collins Indians C 23% 0.9
13 393 Ryan Mason Twins RHP 23% 0.1
13 397 Ryne Birk Astros 2B 20% 0.4
13 398 Brian Trieglaff Yankees RHP 2% 0.0
13 401 Cody Thomas Dodgers OF 3% 0.0
13 404 Wyatt Short Cubs LHP 4% 0.0
14 408 Jesse Adams Reds LHP 1% 0.0
14 412 Nolan Blackwood Athletics RHP 2% 0.0
14 413 Michael Mertz Marlins RHP 9% 0.0
14 414 Jared Poche Padres LHP 11% 0.2
14 415 Austin Athmann Tigers C 0% 0.0
14 417 Kyle Davis Mariners RHP 22% 0.0
14 424 Kyle Simonds Nationals RHP 4% 0.0
14 434 Parker Dunshee Cubs RHP 16% 0.1
14 436 Vincent Jackson Cardinals OF 10% 0.1
15 438 Jesse Stallings Reds RHP 1% 0.0
15 441 Scott Serigstad Brewers RHP 7% 0.0
15 442 Ty Damron Athletics LHP 12% 0.1
15 446 Jake Elliott White Sox RHP 4% 0.0
15 447 Danny Garcia Mariners LHP 1% 0.0
15 454 Ryan Williamson Nationals LHP 23% 0.2
15 466 J.R. Davis Cardinals 2B 8% 0.1
16 467 Brett Barbier Phillies C 1% 0.0
16 470 Will Haynie Rockies C 1% 0.0
16 473 Dustin Beggs Marlins RHP 6% 0.1
16 479 Nick Blackburn Diamindbacks RHP 4% 0.0
16 482 Ben Krauth Indians LHP 41% 0.4
16 491 Darien Tubbs Dodgers OF 8% 0.1
16 492 Dominic Taccolini Blue Jays RHP 14% 0.2
16 495 Matt Diorio Pirates OF 1% 0.0
17 501 Weston Wilson Brewers 3B 11% 0.1
17 502 Seth Martinez Athletics RHP 34% 0.3
17 503 Brent Wheatley Marlins RHP 6% 0.0
17 504 Chris Baker Padres SS 20% 0.2
17 508 Nick Sciortino Red Sox C 6% 0.1
17 516 Zach Gibbons Angels OF 11% 0.2
17 517 Brian Howard Astros RHP 25% 0.2
17 525 Matt Frawley Pirates RHP 16% 0.2
18 527 Jake Kelzer Phillies RHP 2% 0.0
18 530 Hunter Melton Rockies 1B 4% 0.0
18 532 Skyler Weber Athletics C 11% 0.1
18 535 Niko Buentello Tigers 1B 13% 0.2
18 537 Robert Dugger Mariners RHP 4% 0.0
18 543 Timmy Richards Twins SS 5% 0.1
18 544 Ben Braymer Nationals LHP 10% 0.1
18 545 Jacob Heyward Giants OF 28% 0.3
18 546 David Oppenheim Angels OF 18% 0.2
18 551 Cole Freeman Dodgers 2B 30% 0.5
18 554 Marc Huberman Cubs LHP 7% 0.0
18 556 Austin Sexton Cardinals RHP 36% 1.0
19 560 Jacob Bosiokovic Rockies 1B 2% 0.0
19 568 Kyle Hart Red Sox LHP 2% 0.0
19 576 Cody Ramer Angels SS 25% 0.3
19 581 Chris Mathewson Dodgers RHP 22% 0.4
19 586 Daniel Castano Cardinals LHP 14% 0.1
20 592 Brigham Hill Athletics RHP 35% 0.9
20 593 Eric Gutierrez Marlins 1B 19% 0.2
20 595 Clate Schmidt Tigers RHP 2% 0.0
20 596 Matt Foster White Sox RHP 18% 0.3
20 597 Eric Filia Mariners OF 3% 0.1
20 606 Jack Kruger Angels C 23% 0.6
21 619 Dalton Carroll Braves RHP 10% 0.0
21 625 Joe Navilhon Tigers RHP 10% 0.0
21 626 Michael Horejsei White Sox LHP 6% 0.0
21 627 Austin Grebeck Mariners OF 18% 0.2
22 656 Joel Booker White Sox OF 1% 0.0
22 659 Kevin Ginkel Diamindbacks RHP 0% 0.0
22 666 Troy Rallings Angels RHP 29% 0.0
22 671 Jeff Paschke Dodgers RHP 3% 0.0
23 687 Jack Anderson Mariners RHP 1% 0.0
23 703 Kort Peterson Royals OF 9% 0.1
24 723 Matt Byars Twins C 1% 0.0
24 731 Saige Jenco Dodgers OF 9% 0.1
25 737 Trevor Bettencourt Phillies RHP 7% 0.1
25 738 Colby Wright Reds 2B 13% 0.1
25 740 Heath Holder Rockies RHP 10% 0.1
25 751 Will Toffey Orioles 3B 9% 0.1
25 766 Spencer Trayner Cardinals RHP 3% 0.0
26 771 Nick Roscetti Brewers SS 0% 0.0
26 777 Elliot Surrey Mariners LHP 9% 0.1
26 782 Tanner Tully Indians LHP 15% 0.2
26 783 Greg Deichmann Twins 3B 11% 0.2
26 784 Jack Sundberg Nationals OF 1% 0.0
26 793 John Brontsema Royals 3B 3% 0.0
27 803 Parker Bugg Marlins RHP 5% 0.0
27 810 Robbie Tenerowicz Rays 2B 24% 0.2
27 815 Patrick Ruotolo Giants RHP 13% 0.2
27 819 Lucas Jacobsen Rangers LHP 10% 0.1
27 823 Rex Hill Royals LHP 11% 0.0
28 832 Josh Vidales Athletics 2B 0% 0.0
28 836 Aaron Schnurbusch White Sox OF 1% 0.0
28 837 Nathan Bannister Mariners RHP 22% 0.0
28 847 John Ruiz Astros 2B 8% 0.3
28 856 Pat Krall Cardinals LHP 6% 0.0
29 870 Trek Stemp Rays 2B 6% 0.0
29 876 Blake Smith Angels RHP 8% 0.0
29 877 Elliott Barzilli Astros 3B 36% 1.5
29 882 Andrew Deramo Blue Jays RHP 3% 0.0
29 884 Tyler Peyton Cubs RHP 2% 0.0
30 913 Geoffrey Bramblett Royals RHP 20% 0.4
31 923 Preston Guillory Marlins RHP 1% 0.0
31 927 Lincoln Henzman Mariners RHP 4% 0.0
31 931 Jake Ring Orioles OF 14% 0.1
31 932 Chris Farish Indians RHP 7% 0.0
31 937 Howie Brey Astros LHP 9% 0.1
32 962 Kramer Robertson Indians 2B 21% 0.4
32 966 Doug Willey Angels RHP 8% 0.0
32 975 Ben Miller Pirates 1B 0% 0.0
33 977 Jackson Klein Phillies RHP 9% 0.1
33 981 Emerson Gibbs Brewers RHP 13% 0.2
33 983 Branden Berry Marlins 1B 0% 0.0
34 1007 Luke Maglich Phillies OF 1% 0.0
34 1020 Bobby Melley Rays 1B 1% 0.0
34 1023 Joe Cronin Twins SS 5% 0.0
34 1024 Morgan Cooper Nationals RHP 37% 0.5
34 1035 Craig Dedelow Pirates OF 0% 0.0
35 1053 Austin Tribby Twins LHP 8% 0.1
35 1061 Nick Yarnall Dodgers OF 25% 0.2
36 1093 Alex Massey Royals RHP 2% 0.0
36 1095 Dustin Williams Pirates 1B 6% 0.0
37 1097 James Ziemba Phillies LHP 11% 0.1
37 1111 James Teague Orioles RHP 4% 0.0
37 1116 John Schuknecht Angels OF 5% 0.1
37 1118 Corey Dempster Yankees OF 14% 0.1
37 1123 Justin Camp Royals RHP 1% 0.0
38 1140 Brian Mcafee Rays RHP 1% 0.0
38 1143 Brent Rooker Twins OF 6% 0.1
39 1177 Tyler Wolfe Astros IF 2% 0.0
39 1185 Harrison Wenson Pirates C 0% 0.0
40 1215 Bret Boswell Pirates SS 1% 0.0





 

Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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