Projecting the Prospects from Smaller, Miscellaneous Trades

This was a crazy trade deadline. Dozens and dozens of players changed teams, including several stars who were dealt in the final days. I did the best I could to keep up with my KATOH posts for all of the trades, but still let a few smaller deals fell through the cracks.

In this post, I catch up on the guys I missed. There are no blue-chip prospects here, but a few of the players listed below have decent shots of being big-league regulars in the near future. I put together brief write ups on the more notable prospects from these deals, and then merely listed the guys who are unlikely to ever be impact major leaguers. (Note: WAR figures denote WAR through age-28 season.)

Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers, 5.8 WAR

Zach Davies has spent the 2015 season in Triple-A, where he’s pitched to an excellent 2.84 ERA and a similarly excellent 3.10 FIP. He doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he’s still managed to post average-ish strikeout and walk numbers in Triple-A, which is no small feat coming from a 22-year-old. Furthermore, he’s managed to induce plenty of ground balls (54% ground-ball rate according to MLBfarm), which helps explain how he’s allowed just four homers in over 100 innings on the year.

Running this year’s numbers through the KATOH machine results in a forecast of 5.8 WAR through age 28, which would have made him the 47th-highest-ranked prospect on KATOH’s preseason list. His 2014 numbers yielded a similarly impressive 4.4 WAR forecast. Here are his top statistical comps by way of some Mahalanobis Distance calculations.

Rank	Mah Dist	Pitcher	IP thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	0.26	Bill Pulsipher	323	1.2
2	0.26	Wade Miller	859	13.1
3	0.28	Ivan Nova*	572	6.4
4	0.46	Brian Flynn*	25	0.0
5	0.55	Scott Baker	823	14.0
6	0.58	Rafael Montero*	54	0.3
7	0.60	John Lackey	1,161	23.3
8	0.71	Aaron Laffey	487	2.1
9	0.74	Mike Williams	398	1.2
10	0.75	Mark Kiefer	79	0.0
11	0.77	Sean Henn	81	0.0
12	0.85	Jeremy Powell	148	0.0
13	0.86	Zach Day	372	2.3
14	0.91	Merrill Kelly*	0	0.0
15	0.92	Chad Gaudin	670	3.3
16	0.92	Chris Tillman*	794	7.4
17	0.94	Rick Bauer	240	0.4
18	0.99	Mike Bovee	3	0.0
19	1.01	Adam Pettyjohn	65	0.3
20	1.01	Shawn Estes	990	14.4

*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 season.

*****

Chih-Wei Hu, Tampa Bay Rays, 2.8 WAR

Taiwanese pitcher Chih-Wei Hu has pitched at High-A this year, where he’s recorded a 2.44 ERA and 3.01 FIP. His 21% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate are both better than average, which is rather impressive coming from a 21-year-old.

KATOH finds Hu to be relatively interesting. My system pegs him for 2.8 WAR through age 28 with a 58% chance of cracking the majors. This projection would have put him 183rd on KATOH’s preseason list. Here are some statistical comps:

Rank	Mah Dist	Pitcher	IP thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	0.11	Fernando Nieve	185	0.0
2	0.21	Alex Cobb*	498	8.5
3	0.26	Andy Pettitte	1,249	25.0
4	0.30	Scott Diamond*	343	2.1
5	0.39	Jamie Brown	7	0.0
6	0.43	J.D. Durbin	72	0.3
7	0.43	Alberto Cabrera*	27	0.0
8	0.45	Mike Mohler	273	0.3
9	0.51	Neal Frendling	0	0.0
10	0.54	Aneury Rodriguez*	91	0.0
11	0.54	Gary Glover	385	2.3
12	0.55	Miguel Almonte*	0	0.0
13	0.55	Joe Ross*	32	1.2
14	0.56	Nate Minchey	64	0.7
15	0.56	Andy Van Hekken	30	0.5
16	0.56	Jarrod Washburn	826	10.4
17	0.57	Dan Haren	1,226	24.8
18	0.57	Matt Andriese*	46	0.3
19	0.57	Wes Brooks	0	0.0
20	0.58	Scott Barnes*	27	0.0

*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 season.

*****

Keury Mella, Cincinnati Reds, 2.6 WAR

Keury Mella, 21, has worked as a starter in High-A this year, where he’s pitched to a 3.31 ERA and 3.72 FIP. Through 82 innings, he’s posted a strong 24% strikeout rate and an acceptable 8% walk rate.

KATOH projects Mella for 2.5 WAR through age 28 with a 60% chance of cracking the big leagues. His 2014 numbers yielded a similar forecast of 2.6 WAR, so his prospect status has remained steady. Here are his top statistical comps:

Rank	Mah Dist	Pitcher	IP thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	0.21	Wascar Serrano	46	0.2
2	0.28	Jason Bere	661	4.9
3	0.29	Jon Barratt	0	0.0
4	0.46	Scott Barnes*	27	0.0
5	0.52	Marcos Garcia	0	0.0
6	0.62	Jarrod Washburn	826	10.4
7	0.66	Fernando Cabrera	175	0.0
8	0.68	Dan Cortes*	16	0.0
9	0.74	Deck Mcguire*	0	0.0
10	0.75	Matt Bowman*	0	0.0
11	0.76	Aaron Sele	834	14.2
12	0.80	Randall Delgado	370	1.7
13	0.80	Daryl Henderson	0	0.0
14	0.80	John Ennis	27	0.1
15	0.81	Ryan Sadowski	28	0.2
16	0.84	Tony Armas	0	0.0
17	0.85	Ryan Dittfurth	0	0.0
18	0.89	Andres Santiago*	0	0.0
19	0.89	Robert Ellis	5	0.1
20	0.91	Jose Ramirez*	13	0.0

*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 season.

*****

Adam Duvall, Cincinnati Reds, 1.7 WAR

Just one month shy of his 27th birthday, Adam Duvall isn’t really a prospect anymore. Nonetheless, he’s hit very well in Triple-A this year. In 99 games, he’s cranked 26 homers on his way to a .279/.323/.548. He performed even better at the same level last season, but could only muster a .192/.234/.342 batting line in his 77 plate appearances in San Francisco.

KATOH forecasts Duvall for 1.7 WAR through age 28, and gives him a 75% chance of playing in the majors in the next three seasons. Duvall’s 2014 numbers gave him a forecast of 2.1 WAR. Duvall’s pretty much the definition of Quad-A. The only notable players among his comps were Rick Ankiel, who was obviously an unusual case, and Luke Scott.

*****

JaCoby Jones, Detroit Tigers, 0.5 WAR

The Pirates promoted JaCoby Jones to Double-A this week, following a solid .253/.313/.396 showing in High-A. The 23-year-old has demonstrated an intriguing combination of power and speed this year by posting double-digit homers and steals in his 93 games. However, his strikeout (27%) and walk (7%) rates left something to be desired.

KATOH isn’t particularly high on the 23-year-old. My system forecasts him for 0.5 WAR through age 28 with just a 20% chance of playing in the majors. His 2014 numbers from Low-A yielded a similar 0.6 WAR forecast. Jones’s numbers have been decent this year, but 23-year-olds with decent numbers in A-Ball are a dime a dozen.

*****

Here are the rest. The WAR figures refer to that player’s projected WAR through age 28, and percentages refer to the odds of that player playing in the major leagues.

Adrian Sampson, Seattle Mariners, 3.5 WAR, 88%

Ivan Pineyro, Florida Marlins, 1.9 WAR, 67%

Junior Lake, Baltimore Orioles, 1.5 WAR, 72% (Not technically a prospect anymore, but whatever)

Elliott Soto, Florida Marlins, 1.4 WAR, 50%

Nick Wells, Seattle Mariners, 1.1 WAR, 33%

Rob Rasmussen, Seattle Mariners, 1.0 WAR, 47%

Alberto Tirado, Philadelphia Phillies, 0.5 WAR, 22%

Jacob Brentz, Seattle Mariners, 0.4 WAR, 15%

Jimmy Cordero, Philadelphia Phillies, 0.3 WAR, 23%

Malik Collymore, Milwaukee Brewers, 0.1 WAR, 5%