Projecting White Sox Callup Tim Anderson
Super two deadline season is underway, so expect to see some well-regarded prospects get the call over the next couple of weeks. The most recent player to get the call is White Sox shortstop, Tim Anderson. Anderson hit .304/.325/.409 in Triple-A this season. He has 11 steals to his name this year, but swiped an eye-popping 49 last year.
Anderson oozes tools and has put up fine minor league numbers the past couple of years, but his plate discipline could use some work. He struck out in 23% of his trips to the plate this year at Triple-A, and walked in just 3%. The strikeout and walk numbers were just as bad in the lower levels.
Most concerning of all are those strikeouts, especially in light of his unremarkable power. Anderson ISO’d .106 at Triple-A this year, and at least some of that is due to his 70-grade speed rather than anything he did with the bat. His offensive profile is driven entirely by speed and BABIP. This is somewhat concerning, even considering that — as a shortstop — Anderson doesn’t need to hit a ton.
Anderson ranked 36th on KATOH’s pre-season list with a projected 6.0 WAR over the next six years. Adding in his 2016 stats, his forecast dips to 4.1 WAR. Why the drop? For one, all of his hitting stats ticked in the wrong direction this year. But more importantly, his stolen base numbers regressed substantially. KATOH’s always doubted Anderson’s ability to hit, but now it’s slightly less sure about his ability to provide value in other ways. Namely, in the field and on the bases.
To put some faces to Anderson’s statistical profile, let’s go ahead and generate some statistical comps for the toolsy shortstop. I calculated a weighted Mahalanobis Distance between Anderson’s Double-A and Triple-A numbers since the start of 2015 and every season at those levels since 1990 in which a shortstop recorded at least 400 plate appearances. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues.
| Rank | Name | Proj. WAR | Actual WAR |
| 1 | Greg Smith | 2.8 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Alcides Escobar | 5.6 | 10.8 |
| 3 | Felix Martinez | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 4 | Jason Smith | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5 | Carlos Garcia | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| 6 | Robert Andino | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| 7 | Kim Batiste | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| 8 | Cale Iorg | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 9 | Eduardo Nunez | 4.3 | 1.6 |
| 10 | Lou Collier | 2.6 | 0.6 |
Anderson’s hit for a high average in the minors, but relied more on BABIP than contact skills to get by. That profile doesn’t always translate well to the big leagues, as the lackluster collection of names above helps illustrate. Steamer’s also bearish on the shortstop, pegging him for just a 75 wRC+ hitter against big league pitching. It’s worth noting that Anderson’s cut down on his strikeouts in recent weeks at Triple-A. Perhaps that means he’s made the right adjustments. Perhaps he’ll immediately rake, and make all of these projections look silly. Or, perhaps not. We’ll find out soon enough.
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
I can’t believe there was still another Iorg that played pro baseball.
When Jose Peraza gets called up you can find-and-replace “Tim Anderson” with “Jose Peraza” and have your article 90% written!
They basically seem like the same player, with Peraza striking out less.
I honestly hope Anderson turns out well for the Sox, but that low onbase really scares me and really seems like more of the same. I hope I’m wrong.
It all comes down to his defense. Plus baserunner, 10% below average offensively and average d would be like a 2 war guy.
I think the White Sox would be thrilled if he is only 10% below average offensively.
If mallex smith can do it… I actually think he will be above average defensively but yeah I think he will do better against the best competition, just my take on him.
The thing with Anderson is he’s still raw. He’s only been playing baseball seriously for five years of his life, and his athletic ability and tools are still greater than the sum of those parts.
He’s either someone who is going to figure it out, and continue to improve, at the big league level or the adjustment will be too much for him to make.
There’s star potential there, but there’s also a possibility of being a mega-bust.
One of my biggest complaints of the Hendry years was all the low walk/low onbase guys. I see the same thing currently in the White Sox. Watching from the other side of town it looks like they really focus on athletes, but not enough on baseball skills. I must say, though, Zack Collins was an interesting pick as he’ll take a walk.
I agree with your low walk/low OBP guys point, but I’m not really with you on the athlete point. I think this has been a tad over blown when you go through the list (ignoring pitchers though that’s unfair imo especially considering who the Sox took: Sale, Rodon, and Fulmer) of Sox first round picks since 2008:
Gordon Beckham
Josh Phegley
Jared Mitchell
Keenyn Walker
Keon Barnum
Courtney Hawkins
Tim Anderson
Beckham, Phegley, and Barnum weren’t considered raw athletes; that’s even somewhat true with Hawkins. It’s the case with Walker and Mitchell both who they whiffed on. And the Mitchell looks bad because he’s the guy taken (essentially) one pick before Trout. So it hammers home the athlete over ball player narrative. Beckham was one of the safer picks in 2008 and he’s a bust (at least in Sox fans eyes).
But if you go though BA draft prospect rankings, etc; no one on this list was a reach other than Barnum (and Walker but he was taken 47th). And the Sox have turned a one of the “raw athlete” guys into major league player
(Tryace Thompson and we’ll see with Anderson). But if you go through the recent picks of Jacob May, Michalczewski, Zangari, Micah Johnson, Semien… those guys all played baseball and while maybe you’d slap the ‘athletic’ tag on a few of them, it’s probably not fair.
Yeah, you’re probably right. I’m going more off narrative. Thanks for pointing that out 🙂