Replacing One Durbin With Another
In one of my first posts here at Fangraphs I discussed some odd name similarities amongst players on the Phillies. One I did not mention was that, since 1909 there have only been two major leaguers with the last name of Durbin—JD and Chad—and both are currently on the Phillies; incidentally, they are not related either. JD is pitching in AAA this year but Chad signed a 1-yr/900k deal to pitch for the big club. Through the first two months this low-risk signing has definitely brought with it high reward.
In 23 games, Durbin has a 1.80 ERA, 3.46 FIP, and 1.20 WHIP. He has pitched in 35 innings, surrendering just 28 hits, only one of which was a home run. His walks and strikeouts are a tad suspect, 14 BB – 21 K, but opponents are hitting just .221 against him; additionally, despite a career BABIP ~.300, his current mark is .258. Not many runners have been getting on and 86.5% of those who do have been stranded.
What’s different now from a year ago? For starters, his rates of balls in play have changed. Compare his LD/GB/FB:
2007: 15.6% LD/44.0% GB/40.5% FB
2008: 21.4% LD/42.7% GB/35.9% FB
The grounders are very similar but he has traded in a reduced percentage of flyballs for an increase in line drives. A percentage of line drives like that, via the xBABIP tool of LD% + .120, should in theory produce a BABIP close to the .334 range; Durbin’s .258 is much lower. Though the xBABIP is not a good predictive tool for pitchers, mainly because the LD% is not stable, it can be effective when retrospectively analyzing a pitcher’s results. In Durbin’s case it appears he has either been lucky so far or, as The Professor at Rays Index recently hypothesized, the lower BABIP for certain pitchers could be a byproduct of enough movement to make the batters miss the sweet spot.
Durbin has increased slider usage by 12%, meaning 85% of his pitches are fastballs and sliders. As a reliever, conventional wisdom chimes in that he should be able to get away with a lesser repertoire. Whatever he’s doing is working, though, as his 10.15 BRAA ranks 7th amongst all relievers in the game, and 4th in the National League.
Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.
In the mid-90s, the Phillies also became one of the only teams ever, if not the only team ever, to have two players on the 25-man roster with a last initial of “Q”. Paul Quantrill was joined by an infielder who I think was named Quinlan.