San Diego Doesn’t Like the Number 1

To say the San Diego Padres have had a lot of bad luck drafting in the first round this decade would be an understatement. In the eight drafts so far, the club’s No. 1 picks have produced one Major League starter and one Top 10 prospect. The other six have crashed and burned or been derailed by injuries.

In 2000, the club began the decade by using its ninth overall selection to choose Mark Phillips out of a Pennsylvania high school. The hard-throwing lefty had control and command issues that he was unable to overcome. He was eventually shipped out to the New York Yankees, along with Bubba Trammell, in exchange for Rondell White.

2001 came along and saw the club draft infielder Jake Gautreau out of Tulane University with the 14 overall selection. He was unable to sustain his production in the upper levels of the minor leagues and was eventually traded to Cleveland for another disappointing former No. 1 pick in Corey Smith. Neither player has appeared in the majors.

In 2002 the club made its best selection of the decade when it took shortstop Khalil Greene out of Clemson University with the 13th overall pick of the draft. As we all know, Greene has gone on to be a solid, albeit unspectacular, regular at the Major League level (.252/.309/.435 line).

The club’s luck lasted just one year as it chose right-handed starter Tim Stauffer out of the University of Richmond the next season with the fourth overall pick. Stauffer was damaged goods and had a wonky shoulder. The good news is that he fessed up to the club before it handed him an obscene signing bonus. The bad news is that he told them after they wasted the fourth overall pick on him.

The club had the coveted first overall pick in 2004 but went the signability route and avoided some of the more talented (and expensive players) and took a local high school shortstop named Matt Bush. He proved within two years that he could not hit professional pitching so he took his plus-arm strength to the mound. In less than a month, though, he blew out his elbow and is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Tommy John surgery also derailed 2005 first round pick Cesar Carrillo. The right-handed pitcher was taken 18th overall out of the University of Miami. He’s in Extended Spring Training working his way back from the injury.

The Padres organization disappointed some people with its 2006 first round pick. The club chose infielder Matt Antonelli out of Wake Forest University with the 17th overall pick. He was viewed by many as a “safe pick,” or in other words an advanced college hitter with a modest ceiling for development. Antonelli then quieted the complainers with an outstanding 2007 while playing in some very good hitters’ ballparks. He’s struggling at Triple-A this season.

The Padres have to be pretty sick of paying for Tommy John surgeries. Less than a month after beginning his career, the club’s 2007 No. 1 pick, Nick Schmidt, succumbed to the surgery. The 23rd overall selection was viewed as another “safe pick” with a limited ceiling. Those players are supposed to get to the majors quickly, but Schmidt’s time line will be set back one to two years because of the injury.

Yeah, it’s a pretty depressing list when you look at it all together. Maybe 2008 will be better when the club has another shot at the 23rd overall pick. It can’t get much worse.





Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

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Geoff Young
16 years ago

In Gautreau’s defense, ulcerative colitis is tough to play through. But yeah, that’s a sad list.