Sheets to Oakland
Ben Sheets signing with Oakland did not surprise me in the least. GM Billy Beane has been making these kinds of deals for years now. What does surprise me is the money because usually on the heels of the announcement of the contract, I have nearly always been left wishing my team had been in on that player at that price. This time? Not so much.
The reported deal is for $10 million guaranteed with some as of yet unknown incentives thrown into the mix. In a straight vacuum, I think this is an overpay. On a one year deal in this winter’s economic climate, Oakland is paying Sheets like a three win pitcher. Three wins is solid pitching and there’s a decent chance, we will know more when they are leaked, that at a three win performance level, Sheets will be triggering some of those salary incentives, meaning he would have to pitch even better to justify the contract.
Neither CHONE, nor the nearly universally optimistic fans project Sheets to even be able to accrue three wins of value due to his very real injury concerns. It is important to remember that the injury that cost Ben Sheets all of 2009 was not his first, or even second or even third arm-related injury. A list of pitching-important injuries to Sheets in the last five years includes his elbow, hand, shoulder (twice) and back.
The 31-year-old last pitched a quasi-full season in 2008 and was worth about 4.5 wins. If he managed to reproduce those 200 innings thrown in 2010, I would expect something around 4 wins thanks to aging, injury-related decline and regression. Dock him another half win for the league switch into the American League and even at full health, I’m not confident Ben Sheets is better than 3.5 wins.
The signing does not come in a vacuum though. The AL West is very tight based on projections and Sheets, even at an expected 2 or 2.5 win total value represents a significant upgrade to Oakland’s win totals, which pushes them into the discussion for the division. As we have discussed plenty of times this offseason, those wins at the edge of the playoff picture are worth a lot of marginal revenue. There is also something small to say about signing Ben Sheets away from Texas and Seattle, both rumored to be interested. It leaves me in a weird balance between not liking the deal for them because of the cost, but liking the deal for them because of the increased playoff odds.
It is also strikes me as odd to see Oakland take risks with high payroll players. Injury reclamations are nothing new, but before they have always seemed to land them on the cheap, possibly luring them with the guarantee of playing time. This time around, Sheets had plenty of suitors and Oakland paid for it. Nevertheless, given Oakland’s position, still, as the fourth best team in the division on paper and the one year nature of the contract with Sheets, do not be surprised if Sheets’ name is on the trading block come summer. That would be another of Billy Beane’s specialties.
Matthew Carruth is a software engineer who has been fascinated with baseball statistics since age five. When not dissecting baseball, he is watching hockey or playing soccer.
Are the Athletics really in the discussion to win the division?
Their team was average last year (.500 pythag), and while they have players with potential, I don’t think they have the talent to compete with the Rangers and Mariners, who have both improved substantially this offseason.
Even 2-3 wins from Sheets, and a few win improvement from guys like Anderson, Cahill, etc, still will not put them into contention. I expect whoever comes out on top of the AL West will be doing so with about 95+ wins.
I’d say they’d be “in the discussion” if there were only one team ahead of them – but there are three. If the A’s played a little over their head, they’d likely catch one of the other teams in the AL West, possibly but not likely catch two. I think it would take the “perfect storm” for them to catch and pass all three of the other teams. Sure, it’s possible – but imo they need one more solid upgrade to be “in the discussion”.
vr, Xei
Agreed. To me, this move looks a lot like the Orioles signing Tejada, granted Sheets has far more upside than Tejada. Both the O’s and the A’s are trying to climb their way to the top of their very competitive divisions with an abundance of young talent, but both teams are still a year or two away from actually competing. They’re both semi-reasonable one year contracts that fill needed holes, but neither signing puts the team into contention.
With several “good but not great” teams in the west, I don’t envision anyone hitting 95 wins, because I don’t envision any truly bad teams to beat up on. When you don’t have any 65-70 win teams, you’re pretty unlikely to have 95-100 win teams, too.
Unless, you know…they get to play a bunch more interleague games and wail on their NL brethren like red-headed stepchildren.
It might be an overpay, but I love the signing. The A’s aren’t necessarily “in the discussion” for the division, but they’re good enough that if a few breaks go their way, they can win it.
The signing is a gamble. There’s a non-trivial chance they get 4 or more wins out of Sheets. There’s also a decent chance they get nothing. But if he pitches well, they’ll either be in it and have a shot at the playoffs, or they’ll be able to deal him at the deadline.
Even with the injury history, somebody out there will give up an A prospect for Sheets at the deadline if he shows his previous form for 100-120 innings. The temptation of getting an ace-level pitcher is just too great for teams in the hunt. So for that reason alone, I think it’s a good gamble.
Also keep in mind that the A’s defense is so vastly upgraded, and the Coliseum is so much more pitcher-friendly than the Brewers’ stadium, that he’s likely to look a lot better than he is. We saw how that worked out for Washburn and the M’s last year.