Shifting the Florida Infield

The Florida Marlins are a very potent offensive club. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for their defense. Last season, their starting infield featured Mike Jacobs, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, and Jorge Cantu. Though these four players combined for approximately +90 runs with the bat, Uggla’s +0.3 UZR topped the bunch defensively. Despite defensive improvements from Ramirez and Uggla, their projections for next season still place them around a half-win below average with the glove.

One member of this quartet will not return in 2009, as GM Larry Beinfest sent Jacobs to the Royals this offseason. According to recent reports, however, a new infielder might be joining the team: Orlando Cabrera.

In a recent analysis of Cabrera’s future, I surmised that his value for next season is right around +3.1 wins. He isn’t a terrific hitter but is durable and plays solid defense at the toughest non-catcher position. The problem here is that Hanley Ramirez plays the same position. While it may seem obvious to place the better defender at the position, the more likely scenario involves Cabrera manning the keystone corner.

Except Dan Uggla plays that position. Again, even though Uggla had an average year defensively, Cabrera would likely play much better defense. With Cabrera at second base, where does Uggla go? He could play first base and replace Jacobs in this scenario, or he could head over to the hot corner. Assuming the signing of Cabrera results in Uggla moving to third base, Cantu gets displaced to first base.

Signing Cabrera would most likely see him playing out of position, Uggla moving to third base, and Cantu moving to first base. Unless Cabrera plays remarkably better defense at second base than at shortstop, his win value decreases to somewhere in the +2.7 to +2.9 range. Uggla’s suspect defense could be exploited less at third base, though, perhaps resulting in a higher UZR rating. Cantu, however, loses plenty of value with the shift to first base due to the positional adjustment.

How would their infield look under different circumstances? If Cabrera is not signed and league average play at first base occurs, the foursome is worth right around +13.5 wins. With Cabrera at second, Uggla at third, and Cantu at first, the infield is worth approximately +14.1 wins. If Uggla plays first, with Cabrera at 2nd, they are worth +13.3 wins. Therefore, the most productive alignment would be the proposed shift assuming Cabrera signs.

Of course, if he doesn’t sign, this has all been one monumental waste of time, but I always find it very interesting when values shift with different defensive alignments. As we saw here, merely moving players around the diamond could see an improvement of up to +0.8 wins.