Spread In Talent

We’ve introduced a lot of cool new metrics here on the site in the last year, and we’ve also written a lot of stuff about those metrics and various goings on in baseball. However, you’ll note that the main part of the site’s name is still graphs, so I figured it was about time we got back to our roots. So, for this post, I’m doing less writing and more graphing.

This graph represents the spread in talent among major league outfielders for 2008 for three different metrics – wRAA, Range Runs, and ARM. Basically, what we’ve got here is the distribution of offensive ability, fielding ability by running, and fielding ability by throwing. These metrics essentially encapsulate the value of the traditional five tools – hitting for average, hitting for power, running, fielding, and throwing as they relate to outfielders.

As you’d expect, the biggest gap is in offensive ability. There are a few outfielders who can really hit and some who are pretty lousy with the bat, making the spread from best to worst nearly 80 runs. Likewise, there’s a pretty decent spread in terms of range, with the best outfielders being about 50 runs better than the worst outfielders. But the spread in arm ratings is much, much smaller – not quite 20 runs. Throwing is nice, but it’s not running, and it’s certainly not hitting. This is why MLB players are selected based on their bats and their legs, not their arms.

My favorite thing to draw from this graph, though, is the value of elite defenders with average bats. If you had a guy with 0 wRAA, meaning he was the epitome of a league average hitter, but he was best in the league at both fielding and throwing, he’d be at the +30 point on the graph. Look at where +30 is in wrAA compared to the spread of talent. There are not very many +30 wRAA outfielders.

A league average bat who is an elite runner and thrower is about equal in value to a Ryan Braun type of hitter. You can make up for a lot of offensive lack with defensive greatness in the outfield.