The 1,000 Run Headliner

Remember at the beginning of the season when, for whatever reason, some ESPN analysts seemed programmed to think that the Detroit Tigers were seriously capable of scoring 1,000 runs this year? Of course, it was a euphemism for how potent their offense might be rather than a serious prediction (I hope). Curtis Granderson was expected to leadoff for this offense and help propel them into a landslide division victory in the AL Central.

Well, the Tigers aren’t scoring or on pace to score 6.17 r/g—what it would take to score 1,000+ runs—and Granderson’s early season absence is generally attributed as a major cause. It’s kind of odd to say that the team vastly underperformed because of him; after all, in 2006, he was a contender for the Oddibe Award (the award I give out to the player with the most average slash line). Sure, he had a great year in 2007 but to say a team “expected” to win at an alarming rate isn’t doing so because of one player means that his replacement would have to have been monumentally awful so as to make up for the difference.

Since his return he has essentially picked up where he left off. He wasn’t going to OPS .920+ realistically as it took one of those 20-20-20-20 seasons to get a .913, but that does not mean he couldn’t be a very productive player. In 105 games, he is hitting .302/.374/.502, an .876 OPS. 44 of his hits are of the extra-base variety, consisting of 20 doubles, 9 triples, and 15 home runs. With only a month and a half left, needing both 11 steals and 11 triples, it isn’t likely he can repeat the 2007 magic, but given the time he missed his stat-line is still very impressive.

His OBP was thirteen points lower last year, at .361, but his SLG was up fifty points at .552. He doesn’t seem like a power-hitter because triples aren’t necessarily held to the same power esteem as home runs or doubles; triples are thought of more as hits based on speed. Despite his slugging percentage is much lower than last year, it is still the same or in the same vicinity as Vladimir Guerrero, Jason Giambi, Nate McLouth, and Aramis Ramirez.

He has contributed 1.72 wins in a context-neutral environment, and 1.44 based on shifts in run expectancy. For the sake of context, Vladimir Guerrero is one full WPA/LI win below Grandy. He may have missed time early in the season and his absence may have hurt the Tigers get off to the start they desired, but any struggles since his return can hardly be attributed to his performance.