The Big Three – 2008 Style

When the Braves won their nine-hundred consecutive division titles they did so in large part with the help of their stellar pitching rotation. The Big Three, they were called, referring to Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz; three aces that could easily headline every other rotation in the league but served as 60% of the same one. Glavine left Atlanta after 2002 and Maddux left after 2003. Smoltz stayed.

Five or six years later, these three are in the twilight of their careers, albeit at different stages of said twilight. Smoltz will undergo season-ending surgery and, despite proclaiming he would make a comeback attempt, recovering from surgery provides ample time to do nothing but think and consider options. Glavine rejoined the Braves but has not been particularly effective and seems to be a shell of his old self. Maddux is still pitching quite well, regardless of his home park, but has hinted that the time has come to watch his son play baseball, rather than vice-versa.

Before Smoltz got hurt, he was continuing his dominance as a starter, posting these numbers:

5 GS, 28 IP, 25 H, 8 BB, 36 K
2.57 ERA, 2.21 FIP, 1.18 FIP, 82.8% LOB

Smoltz, whose career LD% is around 20.2%, was limiting hitters to just 13.9% this year; despite that, his BABIP clocked in at .349. Odd.

Glavine has not been as unlucky as Smoltz and, as his ERA-FIP suggests, it has actually been the other way around:

11 GS, 56.1 IP, 59 H, 29 BB, 34 K
4.47 ERA, 5.24 FIP, 1.47 WHIP, 75.6% LOB

His K/BB has plummeted to just 1.17 and his HR/FB of 15.1 is the highest it has ever been. He lets a lot of guys reach base but strands 3/4 of them. Interestingly enough, his BABIP of .269 is down from the .292-.305 range of the last three years.

Maddux plays in a notorious pitcher’s park in San Diego, but still, his FIP has steadily improved since leaving Atlanta:

13 GS, 77.2 IP, 80 H, 12 BB, 42 K
3.48 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 67.0% LOB

Essentially the opposite of Glavine, Maddux doesn’t let many runners reach base but more of them come around to score. With regards to BABIP, Maddux once mentioned (when discussing DIPS) that it was definitely true that a pitcher’s hits allowed would fluctuate; still, Maddux’s BABIPs of the last six years have been: .290, .290, .296, .295, .313, .295. Not too much fluctuation there! Maddux also has a 0.68 WPA, ranking behind just Jake Peavy as the most from a Padres SP.

I always wanted to see these three retire together so they could all go into the Hall of Fame at the same time. With Smoltz’s impending surgery and the time in which he will be forced to consider his future, this very well may happen. All three are no-doubters, in my eyes, when it comes to the HOF, due to their dominance, individual and team success on the field, and the legendary ambassadorship they have garnered over the years.

We’ll have to wait and see what happens but I am definitely not looking forward to a baseball season in which none of these three will be active.