The Sluggin’ Hawaiian

The Phillies fell to the Marlins last night, 8-2, dropping their lead in the NL East to just one and a half games. I missed the game due to attending a Hootie and the Blowfish concert, but upon learning the score, developed a real gut feeling that Shane Victorino was somehow involved in those two runs. You see, Victorino, otherwise known as “The Flyin’ Hawaiian,” has been on an absolute tear over the last month and yet very few have realized. Sure enough, the box score revealed that the Phillies two runs came as a result of a two-run homer off the bat of Victorino. Granted, replays showed it was likely a foul ball, but that isn’t changing the stat sheets or the fact that he has been one of baseball’s best over the last month.

Thanks to the ‘last 30 days’ feature here we can definitively check how his performance has been and gauge it relative to the rest of the league. Here are his numbers:

Last 30 Days: .347/.386/.705, 1.091 OPS, 6 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 1.30 WPA/LI

His WPA/LI ranks behind just Ryan Ludwick and Ryan Braun, meaning that Victorino has arguably been the most productive players in the NL over the last thirty days, let alone the most productive centerfielder. Additionally, his 1.091 OPS and 8 HR top all centerfielders. To add even more fuel to the fire, all of this has been built upon a .316 BABIP; while the BABIPs of other hot performers in this span are ridiculously high and unsustainable, Shane’s has been relatively normal.

The recent stretch has brought his overall seasonal line to read: .288/.351/.451, 20 2B, 11 HR, 1.20 WPA/LI, 1.00 REW. His WPA/LI ranks fourth amongst NL centerfielders behind Rick Ankiel, Nate McLouth, and Carlos Beltran; his REW comes behind just McLouth and Beltran.

As The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball as well as a few other studies have shown, hot and cold streaks have very little predictive ability, so this isn’t to say Victorino will outslug Ryan Howard from here on out. Still, he has been very productive and I would be willing to wager that the vast majority of baseball knows next to nothing about him.

Plugging him into the in-season Marcel, Shane would go .278/.343/.421 with 10 2B and 5 HR. This would bring his overall line to .284/.346/.441, with 30 2B and 16 HR. Compare then his projected 2008 finish to his 2006 and 2007 seasons:

2006: .287/.346/.414, .760 OPS, 19 2B, 6 HR
2007: .281/.347/.423, .770 OPS, 23 2B, 12 HR
2008: .284/.346/.441, .787 OPS, 30 2B, 16 HR

His BA and OBP would stay virtually the same while the value of those hits—more doubles and home runs—would increase. He may not get much better considering his age of 27 years old, but teams could do a lot worse than having a solid centerfielder with a very good arm who would top their speed charts and add a dimension of power. He may not get the publicity of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, or Ryan Howard, but his contributions have definitely been key in getting the Phillies out of their recent funk.