The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats
Over the last couple years, the author has published a periodic statistical report designed to serve as a mostly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, possess more enthusiasm for collegiate baseball than expert knowledge of it. Those reports integrated concepts central to much of the analysis found at FanGraphs — regarding sample size and regression, for example — to provide something not unlike a “true talent” leaderboard for hitters and pitchers in select conferences.
What follows represents the most current such report for the 2017 college campaign.
As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done here is to utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.
To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: MPS+* for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and MPS-* (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.
*MPS denotes (maybe) predictive stats.
Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in five different conferences each: the top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. The five conferences I’ve chosen here represent those most typically responsible for producing good major-league players.
*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.
There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are care of Baseball Cube and as current as Baseball Cube says they should be.
ACC
Top Batter
Sam Fragale, 1B, Virginia Tech (RS-Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Sam Fragale, 1B, Virginia Tech (RS-Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Adam Haseley, CF, Virginia (Jr)
Top Pitcher
Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville (Jr)
Top Starter
Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville (Jr)
Leaderboards
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Fragale | Virginia Tech | RS-Jr | 1B | 163 | 20.2% | .386 | .343 | 19.7% | .264 | .321 | 144 |
| Adam Haseley | Virginia | Jr | CF | 160 | 8.1% | .295 | .394 | 10.9% | .220 | .327 | 142 |
| Pavin Smith | Virginia | Jr | 1B | 160 | 3.1% | .266 | .297 | 7.2% | .206 | .315 | 137 |
| Joe Dunand | NC State | Jr | SS | 130 | 16.2% | .372 | .222 | 16.8% | .245 | .308 | 136 |
| Gavin Sheets | Wake Forest | Jr | 1B | 154 | 12.3% | .305 | .302 | 14.0% | .223 | .316 | 134 |
| Ryan Tufts | Virginia Tech | Sr | SS | 173 | 13.3% | .277 | .374 | 14.6% | .214 | .325 | 133 |
| Brendan McKay | Louisville | Jr | 1B | 132 | 12.1% | .280 | .420 | 14.0% | .206 | .329 | 133 |
| Griffin Conine | Duke | So | COF | 157 | 14.6% | .292 | .340 | 15.6% | .218 | .320 | 132 |
| Joey Bart | Georgia Tech | So | C | 146 | 21.9% | .331 | .356 | 20.8% | .232 | .322 | 130 |
| Seth Beer | Clemson | So | COF | 82 | 9.8% | .327 | .209 | 13.3% | .207 | .310 | 127 |
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan McKay | Louisville | Jr | LHP | 45.0 | 174 | 39.0% | 5.7% | 34.1% | 7.9% | 62 |
| J.B. Bukauskas | North Carolina | Jr | RHP | 51.0 | 193 | 38.8% | 6.7% | 34.3% | 8.3% | 62 |
| Tyler Holton | Florida State | So | LHP | 47.1 | 179 | 35.8% | 6.7% | 31.9% | 8.4% | 69 |
| Graeme Stinson | Duke | Fr | LHP | 19.1 | 80 | 42.5% | 10.0% | 32.9% | 10.1% | 71 |
| Griffin Roberts | Wake Forest | So | RHP | 28.0 | 115 | 38.2% | 11.3% | 32.0% | 10.6% | 74 |
| Ryley Gilliam | Clemson | So | RHP | 11.0 | 42 | 42.5% | 9.4% | 29.6% | 10.0% | 79 |
| Tyler Jackson | Clemson | Grad! | RHP | 22.1 | 94 | 31.0% | 3.2% | 27.1% | 7.7% | 80 |
| Andrew Cabezas | Miami | So | RHP | 28.2 | 118 | 32.3% | 7.6% | 28.4% | 9.1% | 80 |
| Parker Dunshee | Wake Forest | Sr | RHP | 49.2 | 207 | 29.0% | 6.3% | 27.2% | 8.0% | 80 |
| Jacob Hennessy | Clemson | Fr | LHP | 16.0 | 64 | 34.4% | 6.3% | 27.8% | 9.1% | 81 |
Notes
This represents NC State junior Joe Dunand’s first appearance on the ACC batting leaderboard. Dunand himself represents one of only two shortstops who currently sit among the league’s top-10 hitters by this potentially flawed methodology. He was excellent during last weekend’s series against a ranked Florida State club, recording two walks, a hit-by-pitch, two doubles, and a home run among his nine plate appearances.
Given Dunand’s physicality, it would be surprising were he to remain at short as a professional. His combination of power and defensive value, however, are nonetheless compelling.
Here’s video, nearly two years old, which gives a sense of Dunand’s size:
Top Batter
Garrett Benge, 3B, Oklahoma State (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Garrett Benge, 3B, Oklahoma State (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Garrett Benge, 3B, Oklahoma State (Jr)
Top Pitcher
Sean Wymer, RHP, Texas Christian (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Vincenzo Aiello, RHP, Oklahoma (Grad!)
Top Starter
Michael Grove, RHP, West Virginia (So)
Leaderboards
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Benge | Oklahoma State | Jr | 3B | 149 | 13.4% | .304 | .352 | 14.9% | .212 | .328 | 137 |
| Hunter Hargrove | Texas Tech | Sr | 1B | 158 | 8.2% | .227 | .363 | 11.1% | .177 | .330 | 131 |
| Renae Martinez | Oklahoma | Sr | C | 116 | 4.3% | .214 | .351 | 9.2% | .165 | .328 | 128 |
| Steele Walker | Oklahoma | So | OF | 152 | 13.8% | .233 | .380 | 15.2% | .179 | .332 | 126 |
| Kacy Clemens | Texas | Sr | 1B | 148 | 14.2% | .240 | .344 | 15.5% | .182 | .327 | 125 |
| Quintin Crandall | Kansas State | RS-Sr | 3B | 127 | 13.4% | .234 | .247 | 15.1% | .175 | .317 | 119 |
| Luken Baker | Texas Christian | So | 1B | 140 | 19.3% | .241 | .342 | 19.1% | .181 | .327 | 119 |
| Orlando Garcia | Texas Tech | Jr | SS | 135 | 25.2% | .282 | .316 | 23.2% | .198 | .324 | 119 |
| Jake Scudder | Kansas State | Sr | 1B | 139 | 15.8% | .222 | .278 | 16.7% | .172 | .320 | 117 |
| Colin Simpson | Oklahoma State | So | C | 112 | 17.0% | .221 | .333 | 17.6% | .167 | .326 | 116 |
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Wymer | Texas Christian | So | RHP | 25.2 | 95 | 37.8% | 6.3% | 31.4% | 8.6% | 74 |
| Michael Grove | West Virginia | So | RHP | 39.2 | 150 | 34.6% | 6.7% | 30.8% | 8.4% | 74 |
| Vincenzo Aiello | Oklahoma | Grad! | RHP | 15.0 | 59 | 43.9% | 11.8% | 32.4% | 10.4% | 76 |
| Devon Perez | Oklahoma | Jr | RHP | 30.0 | 126 | 32.6% | 4.0% | 29.1% | 7.4% | 76 |
| Jake Irvin | Oklahoma | So | RHP | 34.2 | 135 | 33.2% | 5.9% | 29.6% | 8.1% | 77 |
| Austin Boyles | Texas Christian | RS-Fr | RHP | 10.1 | 40 | 42.9% | 5.0% | 30.0% | 9.0% | 78 |
| Carson Teel | Oklahoma State | So | LHP | 32.0 | 136 | 31.7% | 6.6% | 28.6% | 8.4% | 80 |
| Connor Berry | Oklahoma | So | RHP | 19.1 | 77 | 38.8% | 14.2% | 31.2% | 11.2% | 81 |
| Brady Basso | Oklahoma State | Fr | LHP | 15.0 | 64 | 36.0% | 7.8% | 29.0% | 9.3% | 82 |
| Stephen Villines | Kansas | Sr | RHP | 26.1 | 115 | 29.5% | 3.5% | 27.0% | 7.3% | 82 |
Notes
Texas Tech’s Orlando Garcia has recorded a strikeout rate (25.2%) nearly seven points higher than the the Big 12 average (18.7%). Few players post such a figure and still place among the league’s top-10 batters. Garcia has compensated for his swing-and-miss issues, however, with the second-highest regressed ISO in the conference. The combination of that power and Garcia’s defensive skill — he’s been Texas Tech’s starting shortstop for two years — is unrivaled throughout the Big 12 currently. A junior, he’s eligible for this June’s draft.
Here’s video of a recent home run by Garcia, which gives a sense not only of his power but his physical actions:
And a mostly routine defensive play, for some reason:
Top Batter
Keston Hiura, DH, UC Irvine (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Keston Hiura, DH, UC Irvine (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Josh Rojas, 3B, Hawaii (Sr)
Top Pitcher
Spencer Howard, RHP, Cal Poly (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Spencer Howard, RHP, Cal Poly (So)
Top Starter
Spencer Howard, RHP, Cal Poly (So)
Leaderboards
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keston Hiura | UC Irvine | Jr | DH | 132 | 16.7% | .308 | .449 | 16.9% | .197 | .328 | 138 |
| Kevin Riley | Cal St. No.ridge | RS-Jr | 1B | 142 | 16.9% | .274 | .320 | 17.1% | .186 | .314 | 129 |
| Josh Rojas | Hawaii | Sr | 3B | 128 | 6.3% | .198 | .301 | 9.9% | .150 | .312 | 125 |
| Lucas Tancas | Long Beach St. | RS-Jr | COF | 111 | 13.5% | .222 | .392 | 14.9% | .156 | .320 | 123 |
| Albee Weiss | Cal St. No.ridge | Jr | C | 136 | 21.3% | .248 | .297 | 20.2% | .173 | .311 | 119 |
| Al. Rubalcaba | Cal St. No.ridge | RS-Jr | 2B | 113 | 8.0% | .165 | .282 | 11.3% | .134 | .310 | 116 |
| David Banuelos | Long Beach St. | Jr | C | 110 | 19.1% | .219 | .356 | 18.5% | .155 | .317 | 116 |
| Zach Weisz | Cal St. Fullerton | RS-Fr | COF | 7 | 14.3% | 1.000 | 1.000 | 17.2% | .148 | .318 | 116 |
| Sam Cohen | UC San. Barbara | So | DH | 76 | 13.2% | .229 | .228 | 15.1% | .149 | .308 | 115 |
| Caleb Van Blake | UC Davis | So | 2B | 43 | 9.3% | .214 | .333 | 14.1% | .134 | .314 | 114 |
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Howard | Cal Poly | RS-So | RHP | 39.1 | 155 | 31.7% | 5.8% | 27.5% | 7.1% | 73 |
| Connor Riley | Long Beach St. | Fr | RHP | 11.0 | 48 | 43.5% | 14.5% | 28.7% | 9.7% | 76 |
| Brendan Hornung | Hawaii | Sr | RHP | 62.2 | 250 | 24.8% | 2.0% | 23.4% | 4.6% | 77 |
| Darren McCaughan | Long Beach St. | Jr | RHP | 56.2 | 217 | 25.3% | 3.7% | 23.7% | 5.7% | 79 |
| Chris Rivera | Long Beach St. | So | RHP | 13.2 | 59 | 37.5% | 11.9% | 27.1% | 9.3% | 79 |
| Blake Workman | Cal St. Fullerton | Fr | RHP | 27.0 | 108 | 27.7% | 4.6% | 24.1% | 6.9% | 81 |
| Steven Ledesma | UC Santa Barbara | Jr | RHP | 21.1 | 95 | 30.6% | 9.5% | 25.4% | 8.7% | 82 |
| Connor Seabold | Cal St. Fullerton | Jr | RHP | 57.0 | 228 | 23.7% | 4.4% | 22.4% | 6.1% | 83 |
| Josh Advocate | Long Beach St. | RS-Sr | RHP | 19.2 | 73 | 27.3% | 2.7% | 23.0% | 6.6% | 83 |
| Slater Lee | Cal Poly | Sr | RHP | 22.0 | 97 | 30.8% | 11.3% | 25.6% | 9.4% | 84 |
Notes
Right-hander Spencer Howard’s bio page at the Cal Poly athletics website suggests that he’s “[e]xpected to be one of the top relievers out of the bullpen as a sophomore this season.” This wouldn’t have been a surprising outcome for Howard this year — that is, on account of he was one of the top relievers out of the bullpen as a freshman, too. He joined the team’s rotation a month ago, though, and is now one of the top starters on the team, having produced a 38:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 29.2 innings in that capacity. According to Kendall Rogers of D1 Baseball, Howard was sitting 91-93 mph — up to 94-95 — this spring. He’s recorded the top performance of any draft-eligible pitcher in the Big West.
As has been the case in recent weeks, the Pac-12 data appears to be incomplete — omitting, it seems, all players who haven’t qualified for the batting or ERA titles. The numbers below, then, are based only on qualified players.
Top Batter
J.J. Matijevic, 1B, Arizona (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
J.J. Matijevic, 1B, Arizona (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Jared Oliva, CF, Arizona (Jr)
Top Pitcher
David Peterson, LHP, Oregon (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
David Peterson, LHP, Oregon (Jr)
Top Starter
David Peterson, LHP, Oregon (Jr)
Leaderboards
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Matijevic | Arizona | Jr | 1B | 144 | 14.6% | .295 | .429 | 14.8% | .206 | .349 | 133 |
| Jared Oliva | Arizona | Jr | CF | 141 | 12.1% | .252 | .388 | 13.1% | .186 | .344 | 126 |
| Andrew Vaughn | California | Fr | 1B | 132 | 9.1% | .231 | .382 | 11.1% | .176 | .343 | 124 |
| Nick Madrigal | Oregon State | So | SS | 138 | 3.6% | .183 | .389 | 7.2% | .155 | .344 | 123 |
| Dallas Carroll | Utah | Sr | 3B | 132 | 8.3% | .212 | .396 | 10.6% | .167 | .344 | 122 |
| Sean Bouchard | UCLA | Jr | 1B | 133 | 19.5% | .275 | .369 | 18.3% | .195 | .341 | 121 |
| Shane Matheny | Wash. St. | Jr | 3B | 117 | 16.2% | .255 | .382 | 16.0% | .182 | .342 | 120 |
| Lars Nootbaar | USC | So | CF | 136 | 13.2% | .212 | .341 | 13.9% | .168 | .338 | 116 |
| Nick Quintana | Arizona | Fr | 3B | 140 | 17.1% | .211 | .411 | 16.6% | .168 | .346 | 115 |
| Alfonso Rivas | Arizona | So | DH | 132 | 12.9% | .178 | .451 | 13.7% | .153 | .350 | 115 |
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Peterson | Oregon | Jr | LHP | 52.1 | 205 | 37.6% | 2.0% | 33.1% | 4.6% | 57 |
| Luke Heimlich | Oregon State | Jr | LHP | 58.2 | 217 | 29.0% | 5.5% | 26.8% | 6.5% | 78 |
| Griffin Canning | UCLA | Jr | RHP | 52.2 | 219 | 30.1% | 9.1% | 27.6% | 8.5% | 81 |
| Kris Bubic | Stanford | So | LHP | 39.2 | 171 | 29.9% | 8.8% | 27.0% | 8.2% | 82 |
| Jake Thompson | Oregon State | Jr | RS-Jr | 53.1 | 203 | 27.5% | 8.8% | 25.6% | 8.3% | 86 |
| Noah Bremer | Washington | Jr | RHP | 53.1 | 214 | 27.5% | 10.3% | 25.7% | 9.1% | 88 |
| Andrew Summerville | Stanford | Jr | LHP | 30.0 | 132 | 25.8% | 8.4% | 23.8% | 8.0% | 90 |
| Rio Gomez | Arizona | Jr | LHP | 40.2 | 169 | 20.8% | 4.2% | 20.5% | 5.9% | 93 |
| Mitchell Verburg | Oregon State | Fr | RHP | 4.1 | 18 | 27.9% | 5.6% | 21.5% | 7.5% | 95 |
| Cody Anderson | Wash. St. | Jr | LHP | 42.0 | 173 | 21.9% | 7.5% | 21.4% | 7.6% | 95 |
Notes
I’ve been publishing these reports with some regularity for roughly eight weeks now, and for nearly all eight of those weeks, Arizona junior Jared Oliva has appeared among the top-two or -three hitters in the Pac-12. He makes contact at a better-than-average frequency, has produced one of the top isolated-slugging marks in the entire conference, and plays center field. He was omitted from Baseball America’s preseason top-100 college-draft-prospect list. Nevertheless, the whole profile seems quite promising.
Top Batter
Brent Rooker, 1B, Mississippi State (RS-Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Brent Rooker, 1B, Mississippi State (RS-Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Grant Koch, C, Arkansas (So)
Top Pitcher
Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Kyle Serrano, RHP, Tennessee (RS-Jr)
Top Starter
Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn (So)
Leaderboards
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Rooker | Miss. St. | RS-Jr | 1B | 157 | 15.9% | .560 | .471 | 16.6% | .338 | .349 | 185 |
| Grant Koch | Arkansas | So | C | 145 | 13.1% | .317 | .295 | 14.6% | .220 | .328 | 135 |
| Greg Deichman | LSU | Jr | COF | 148 | 16.9% | .303 | .337 | 17.3% | .214 | .332 | 131 |
| Jeren Kendall | Vanderbilt | Jr | CF | 161 | 24.8% | .295 | .367 | 23.1% | .214 | .336 | 124 |
| Riles Mahan | Kentucky | Jr | 2B | 152 | 15.8% | .246 | .321 | 16.5% | .189 | .331 | 122 |
| Evan White | Kentucky | Jr | 1B | 91 | 16.5% | .253 | .431 | 17.2% | .178 | .339 | 120 |
| Braden Shewmake | Texas A&M | Fr | 2B | 153 | 9.8% | .177 | .368 | 12.2% | .157 | .336 | 118 |
| Kramer Robertson | LSU | Sr | SS | 155 | 10.3% | .188 | .321 | 12.6% | .162 | .331 | 117 |
| Carson Shaddy | Arkansas | RS-Jr | 2B | 133 | 25.6% | .269 | .391 | 23.3% | .195 | .338 | 117 |
| Julian Infante | Vanderbilt | So | 1B | 152 | 20.4% | .220 | .426 | 19.8% | .176 | .343 | 117 |
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize | Auburn | So | RHP | 52.2 | 206 | 36.4% | 3.9% | 33.2% | 6.2% | 68 |
| Kyle Serrano | Tennessee | RS-Jr | RHP | 7.2 | 31 | 54.8% | 6.4% | 33.4% | 8.6% | 74 |
| Logan Salow | Kentucky | Sr | LHP | 24.1 | 90 | 40.0% | 6.7% | 33.0% | 8.2% | 74 |
| Will Ethridge | Mississippi | Fr | RHP | 29.0 | 119 | 36.1% | 7.6% | 31.6% | 8.4% | 78 |
| Blaine Knight | Arkansas | So | RHP | 46.1 | 174 | 31.0% | 2.9% | 28.9% | 5.9% | 79 |
| Trevor Stephan | Arkansas | Jr | RHP | 44.0 | 173 | 32.9% | 5.8% | 30.3% | 7.4% | 79 |
| Chris Machamer | Kentucky | Fr | RHP | 11.1 | 45 | 41.8% | 4.4% | 31.0% | 8.0% | 79 |
| T.J. Sikkema | Missouri | Fr | LHP | 42.0 | 159 | 33.4% | 6.9% | 30.5% | 8.0% | 80 |
| Andrew Gist | Georgia | Sr | LHP | 37.1 | 150 | 32.0% | 5.3% | 29.5% | 7.3% | 81 |
| Cannon Chadwick | Arkansas | Sr | RHP | 22.1 | 91 | 34.2% | 6.6% | 29.7% | 8.1% | 83 |
Notes
Mississippi State’s Brent Rooker managed, somehow, to improve upon his monstrous numbers since last week, both (a) lowering his strikeout rate (from 17.5% to 15.9%) and (b) improving his isolated-power figure (from .513 to .560). One way he did that was by hitting three home runs on Saturday alone. He continues to play first base exclusively but also continues to lead the SEC in stolen bases — the latter fact suggesting that he possesses a sort of athleticism uncommon to first basemen.
Would you care to watch a local-news segment about Brent Rooker’s exploits? Here’s what that is:
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Supposedly Rooker’s natural position is RF, according to an MSU alum who follows the program.
He doesn’t look particularly lumbering in that highlight.
It’s a strange profile! I’m very curious to see how teams approach him in the draft.