There’s A Game 7 Tonight, Because Baseball Is The Best

So! Tonight, there’s going to be a Game 7 of the World Series. Your cheering allegiances aside, that’s a rare and wonderful thing. Appreciate it, because now we’ll have the most possible baseball before the long stretch of no baseball, and this isn’t an occasion that comes around all that often. We had a Game 7 three years ago between Texas and St. Louis, but it had been nine years since it’d happened before that, the longest stretch in big league history. Sometimes, you get classics like Curt Schilling & Randy Johnson against Roger Clemens & Mariano Rivera in 2001; sometimes, you get John Tudor allowing eight runners in 2.1 innings on the way to losing 11-0 in 1985. What’s important is that we’re set up for history, and often the biggest impediment to that is simply the opportunity for it to happen. Not tonight.

Jeremy Guthrie against Tim Hudson doesn’t really sound all that exciting, and maybe it won’t be. It’s difficult to imagine either pitcher going more than five innings, and perhaps it won’t even be close to that. It won’t be the worst-ever matchup of Game 7 starters — 1997’s Jaret Wright against Al Leiter probably still tops that list — but it will be the oldest, thanks to a combined 74 years of age. Or at least it will be for a few innings, since both managers are likely going to dig into their bullpens early, since it doesn’t get more “all hands on deck” than this. On the other hand, maybe that makes it more exciting. This could be baseball unlike baseball.

Obviously, any Game 7 is fascinating, but this one might just be moreso, if only because of the way the postseason has gone so far. You’ve heard in more than a few places that this is “the best postseason ever,” and while that’s probably a bit hyperbolic because of the effects of recency, you certainly understand the sentiment. To merely name a few of the lasting impressions — the AL wild card game madness, the divergent Octobers of Madison Bumgarner & Clayton Kershaw, an 18-inning NLDS game, Lorenzo Cain and the Royals defense, literally every single thing Ned Yost has done — is to unfairly neglect so many others. For a postseason like that to end with a Game 7, well, it seems like a fitting capper.

But then, I can’t help but wonder: What kind of postseason has this been, really? Those great games came in the midst of some pretty unexciting series, didn’t they? None of the six Division and Championship series were really close, at least in terms of going to a deciding game. The six winners beat the six losers by a combined score of 20 games to 3. All three of the American League series were sweeps.

Now, contrast that to the World Series, which almost by definition has gone well because we’re being gifted with a Game 7. But unlike the earlier series, which had wonderful moments in blowout series, it hasn’t really been filled with great games. Take a look at our WPA charts for each of the first six games, and while I probably made these smaller than they needed to be, you get the point. Games 1-3 are the top row, 4-6 the bottom:

worldseries_charts

Games 1 and 6 were over early. Game 2 was tight until the sixth inning, when the Giants used five pitchers to get three outs and allow five runs. Game 4 was interesting early — Ryan Vogelsong didn’t make it out of the third — until Brandon Finnegan & Tim Collins made it a blowout. Game 5 never got out of hand until the eighth, but it also never felt like the Royals were really ever in it against Bumgarner, either. This is, if this tweet that I have not been able to disprove is accurate, the first World Series that’s ever had five different games decided by five or more runs. Game 3, a 3-2 Kansas City victory, was really the only close one, and that was also a Guthrie/Hudson affair.

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So after one of the longest seasons in baseball history — do remember that the Dodgers & Diamondbacks kicked things off way back on March 22 in Australia — we’re basically back where we started in the final days of September, with a one-game winner-take-all affair between two wild card teams that are only here because they’ve already done exactly that.

Our game odds, with the lineups yet to be announced beyond the starting pitchers, put it at 51.6%/48.4% in favor of the Royals, which is basically saying it’s a 50/50 proposition. Two relatively even teams — the Royals have won 100 total games this year, and the Giants 99 — are tossing out relatively even past-peak veteran starting pitchers. This isn’t about who is the best team, it’s about who is the best tonight, and while there’s no doubt a sizeable portion of fans who see no distinction there, clearly there is.

That’s the case if only because of one of the many things that makes baseball great and unique and frustrating and wonderful: Because of the everyday grind of the game, you rarely get to throw out your best team. Certainly, Yost & Bruce Bochy would love to have James Shields (or Yordano Ventura) against Bumgarner tonight. Instead, they get Guthrie & Hudson. Imagine if Peyton Manning or LeBron James or Sidney Crosby missed the final game of their postseason because they’d played too recently? Love you, baseball.

Anyway, you’ll hear a lot today about how “no team has lost a Game 7 at home since 1979,” and that’s true. It also doesn’t really mean anything about anything, unless you really think that something Willie Stargell & Mike Flanagan did or didn’t do in 1979, or anyone in any of those Game 7s since, has anything to do with what the Royals & Giants will do tonight. (If you do believe that, however, you can thank the Cardinals, since Adam Wainwright & Pat Neshek combined to allow all five runs in the All-Star Game, giving the AL home field advantage and putting this game in Kansas City.) You’ll hear a lot, too, about declining ratings, as though 99.9% of programming hasn’t experienced the same as compared to 10 or 20 or 30 years ago. None of that matters. Right now, the only thing that’s important is that we get to enjoy something that comes along far too rarely: Game 7.

It’s been a great season. It’s been an outstanding postseason. It hasn’t, necessarily, been a memorable World Series yet. Tonight, whether it’s because of Guthrie or Hudson or Joe Panik or Mike Moustakas or Sergio Romo or Kelvin Herrera or Yost or, heaven help us, Rule 7.13, there’s the opportunity for that to change. Here’s to hoping that it does.

And if you really need a rooting interest, well, who among us doesn’t want to see Dan Uggla — 0 hits, 6 whiffs, and 2 errors in 4 games with San Francisco, all losses — come out of this with a World Series ring?





Mike Petriello used to write here, and now he does not. Find him at @mike_petriello or MLB.com.

66 Comments
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Goat
12 years ago

mike petriello is rooting for the giants to win the world series.

Avalon21diso
12 years ago
Reply to  Goat

How do I even begin to troll that comment?

francis
12 years ago

The stat that 8 of the last 10 teams down 3-2 heading home have won the series has zero relevance. I wish people would stop mentioning it.

Bpendragon
12 years ago
Reply to  francis

But I think it is. It shows that the team has the ability to gain and use the momentum to come from behind.

Earl Weaver
12 years ago
Reply to  Bpendragon

Momentum? Momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher.

vince
12 years ago
Reply to  Earl Weaver

If it were, then this stat would not exist. The same SP that got the 3-2 lead would finish off the series.

Jason B
12 years ago
Reply to  Earl Weaver

“It shows that the team has the ability to gain and use the momentum to come from behind.”

No.

“The same SP that got the 3-2 lead would finish off the series.”

No.

agam22
12 years ago
Reply to  francis

I would say its relevant, but not in any way predictive of this or any other future series

Matt
12 years ago
Reply to  agam22

Relevant and possibly somewhat predictive, but possibly not. If it is, it’s predictive value is SO much smaller than what the media is saying…

francis
12 years ago
Reply to  Matt

Maybe zero relevance is an exaggeration, but the Giants recent record in elimination games is more relevant, because the teams are similar.

KCDaveInLA
12 years ago
Reply to  francis

8 of the last 10 teams down 3-2 heading home have won the series.

Deal with it.

Avattoir
12 years ago
Reply to  KCDaveInLA

Phhhhhttttt!

That was Bill the Cat dealing with it. I endorse that disposition.

potentpotable
12 years ago
Reply to  francis

I’ts just as relevant as the fact that from 1924-1981 the home team was 5-10 in game 7’s.

Which is to say, it means nothing at all.

The home team has the same home field advantage it always has…. a win expectancy just a tiny bit over 50%.

Vic Romano
12 years ago

“And if you really need a rooting interest, well, who among us doesn’t want to see Dan Uggla – 0 hits, 6 whiffs, and 2 errors in 4 games with San Francisco, all losses — come out of this with a World Series ring?”

*raises hand*

TKDC
12 years ago
Reply to  Vic Romano

My exact thought on this was that it does create a rooting interest, but not the same conclusion as the author.

MDLMember since 2021
12 years ago
Reply to  Vic Romano

Especially since that would mean SF wins 3 of the last 5 WS… and that’s just lame.

Avattoir
12 years ago
Reply to  Vic Romano

Here’s what’s wrong with that reasoning:

Without Uggla being truly, awesomely, staggeringly incompetent in his trial at 2B for the Giants, the Giants don’t bring up Joe Panik and the Duffman. And without Panik and the Duffman, the Giants don’t get to this game.

Thank you, Dan Uggla, for your particular peculiar contribution. Should the Giants manage to pull off a win tonight, I have no doubt whatsoever that someone will institute a Dan Uggla Asymptotic Contribution Award, featuring a bobblehead Uggla replete with extraneous hair, musculature, and general stiffness.

Jon L.
12 years ago

Adam Wainwright and Pat Neshek giving up runs in the all-star game to set up a game 7 in Kansas City reeks of Missouri conspiracy!

Doc Holliday
12 years ago
Reply to  Jon L.

Balderdash!

Mularkey!

Avattoir
12 years ago
Reply to  Doc Holliday

Plus mulderdash and baldarkey, with a dash of bovine excrescence sprinkled with canine deposits.

Fatbot
12 years ago

Obviously baseball writers have to try to convince others that this postseason is great, but as a life-long baseball fan that will continue to be a fan, I’m willing to admit it sucks. A flawed, mediocre team will be crowned a so-called champion. And it’s okay to admit it. That admission of reality does not “kill baseball”. It doesn’t diminish the beauty of the game or one’s personal enjoyment of the pastime. If football wants to be the sport where fans froth over “the best” being the end-all, be-all standard that defines their fandom, let them. Meanwhile baseball fans love the game, not just the winner … or in some cases still love the game even in spite of the winner.

Dan
12 years ago
Reply to  Fatbot

This post is pretty ridiculous. What league has its best team winning its title on a regular basis? Certainly not in the NFL. In the NHL, a hot goalie can decide a Stanley Cup, and #1 overall seeds regularly lose early. The NBA is probably the only league that can boast anything close to that.

TKDC
12 years ago
Reply to  Dan

Yeah, the Giants winning in 2007 and 2011, the Ravens in 2012, just to name some recent examples.

Antonio Bananas
12 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

Mediocre Joe Flacco got paid big because his mediocre team had a great run. It happens everywhere.

Jake
12 years ago
Reply to  Dan

Pretty much every soccer league has its best team winning the title on a regular basis, because they don’t have playoffs.

Bob Hamelin
12 years ago
Reply to  Jake

We’re talking about real sports here, bub.

haishan
12 years ago
Reply to  Dan

And then people complain that there are only like seven teams in any given NBA season that could feasibly win the championship. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

Matt
12 years ago
Reply to  Dan

The NBA is the one league where one truly great superstar player just catapults your franchise into contention, so it stands to reason that of all pro leagues, they would most frequently see the “best” team win. MJ was probably a +23 WAR player on his own.

Abu ?Abd-al-Ra?m?n Solami
12 years ago
Reply to  Fatbot

Regardless of team quality, this has been a very exciting postseason: early round comebacks, one run games, etc. That makes it a great postseason to me, although I don’t like baseball and never will.

Avattoir
12 years ago

Uhm … why are you even here, then?

Yours is an unfortunate display of masochismo.

Chris
12 years ago
Reply to  Fatbot

One could make an argument for every team being flawed and mediocre (or worse). Sorry if you were hoping for a 110-win, multiple championship dynasty to appear somewhere.

Sam Fuld
12 years ago
Reply to  Fatbot

Agreed. For the most part this postseason has been pretty terrible. 3-0 sweeps for both ALDS, 3-1 for both NLDS, 4-0 sweep of ALCS, and 4-1 NLCS.

At least I get to see Moustakas chew his gum…nom, nom, nom, nom.

Orsulakfan
12 years ago
Reply to  Sam Fuld

It was a sweep but every ALCS game was close, and the teams were pretty evenly matched. A couple of breaks here and there and it would have been a totally different series.

Avattoir
12 years ago
Reply to  Orsulakfan

Plus 3 of the 5 NLCS games were highly dramatic to say the least, and the other 2 were not just close but well played.

Just an impression I’ve got, but it seems that most of the negative comments about this season’s MLB playoffs seem to come from folks who don’t appear to have actually watched the games as they were played.

Sam Fuld
12 years ago
Reply to  Orsulakfan

So three out of the sixteen games were dramatic and two were well played? I take back what I said.

ElJimador
12 years ago
Reply to  Fatbot

So tired of this tripe. Why do people like you even watch the playoffs if you think it’s such a farce? Just crown the team with the best regular season record (or run differential, combined WAR, or whatever other nonsense idea you think actual championships should be based on) with your own mythical “should have been” championship and turn of your frickin TV? Why do you have to stick around and annoy the rest of us?

And just a small correction: the team that wins tonight will be crowned the actual champion, not “so-called”. Trust me on this. They’ll get a trophy, a parade, a nice flag that will fly forever over their stadium, and big gaudy rings all around. As they should.

wiggly
12 years ago
Reply to  ElJimador

I wish there was at least a regular-season trophy like they have in hockey….

vince
12 years ago
Reply to  Fatbot

Good point. The best teams should be here, but they are not. This is great for revenues, but bad for the game.

Ruki Motomiya
12 years ago
Reply to  vince

Why is it bad for the game? Or do you actually believe there is some way to reasonably crown a nebulous “best” team? Regular season isn’t long enough for that.

Jim Price
12 years ago
Reply to  vince

Who are the best teams then? Angels? They were flawed too. Everyone thought Oakland was best for first 4 months. There’s a little luck and timing but how are you so sure these aren’t the “best” teams?

Matt
12 years ago
Reply to  vince

Totally disagree. If anything, this WS is bad for revenues as KC is a tiny market. Plus, as fans, we just don’t need to care that much about the revenues (MLB is swimming in money now, so this seems the least of our concerns). We all just want to feel like our team has a chance in any given year. And this is that year for Royals fans.

Brian Petti
12 years ago
Reply to  Matt

Strikeouts and dynasties are fascist.

Jake
12 years ago

Nothing would be more ironic than if the giants lost on a walk-off Posey Rule. I’m very much rooting for this outcome.

Avattoir
12 years ago
Reply to  Jake

You seem like the sort who’d root for Putin to succeed in bullying Ukraine into civil war.

The Posey Rule was instituted to stop YET ANOTHER instance of what happened not just to Posey in the spring of 2011, but what pretty much retarded Ray Fosse’s promising career when Pete Rose barreled into him. Moreover, the INTERPRETATION of the PR got “clarified” (altered, IMO) during the season, to such an extent that the potential for another instance of this needless mayhem was mostly re-instituted.

BTW, there’s already been one instance this playoffs of the Giants losing a game, maybe not entirely due to but at least partly, owing to an invocation of the Posey Rule.

But hey, the Good News is now I’ve got something specific to root against tonight: that the game be decided on the invocation of a perfectly good rule that was designed to Do Good but since has been watered down to something that pretty much negates it.

Bonus Observation: You seem like the sort who might get more of what you’re after from MMA, pro wrassling, NASCAR, the NFL, dog fights, chicken fighting, and Roman Empire exhibitions of the ability of naked Christian humans to fend off starving and abused lions and tigers.

KCEXILE
12 years ago
Reply to  Avattoir

You mad bro?

PackBob
12 years ago

It’s not even which is the best team tonight, it’s which team has more runs at the end of the game. Sometimes that coincides with the better team winning, sometimes not.

JB
12 years ago
Reply to  PackBob

It’s not even which is the best team tonight, it’s which team has more runs at the end of the game.

LOL. This reads like a parody of what a stathead would say.

Ruki Motomiya
12 years ago
Reply to  JB

Or John Madden.

phoenix2042
12 years ago

Plus we get another day of NotGraphs!

RSquared
12 years ago

After almost 30 years of living in NorCal, I finally realized the way to not openly root against the Giants- turn off KNBR and Comcast SportsNet. Geeesh. The incessant slavish media blitz on any good Bay Area team is unbearable. Growing up outside of BOS the Giants were always my second favorite team. Until I moved to this area. Any glimmer of a good team and the media turns into six year olds waving pennants. That goes for Kruk and Kuip, team employees giving their “analysis” on the morning show. I respect the efforts of this team much more, particularly with injuries to key players(Cain, Pagan,Scutario).

Avattoir
12 years ago
Reply to  RSquared

Haters gotta hate, I guess.

The KNBR crew is one helluva lot more objective than anything coming out of the KC area.

Matt
12 years ago
Reply to  Avattoir

Try reading Rany on the Royals. You’ll change your mind pretty fast, Avattoir.

Chris R
12 years ago
Reply to  RSquared

Coming from Boston, you ought to be used to this. My God, the way Boston media and fans identify with players is fulsome, and the whole Red Sox Nation hoohah is unbearable for the rest of us (though probably fun for Sawx fans just because we hate it so much.)

RSquared
12 years ago
Reply to  Chris R

The level of discord is much higher than here. When the Giants aren’t doing well, fans take off their hats and stop discussing the team. Maybe a few solemnic head shakes and then quietly move on.

Avattoir
12 years ago

“None of the six Division and Championship series were really close, at least in terms of going to a deciding game.|

But quite a few of the INDIVIDUAL GAMES were close, and dramatic on top of that in gratifying and surprising ways. At least 3 of the Giants/Cards games were drop-to-the-ground awesome (only Games 1 and 4 were not, and neither of those was a blow-out): the dingers by Taveras and then Colton Wong, Colton Wong non-stop, the two head-to-head match-ups between Bumgarner and Wainwright, Wainwright’s remarkable losing effort in Game 5, the Giants’ small-ball miracles, the Morse dinger … ISH-I-KA-WA! That sure wasn’t nothing. And on the KC side, the Royals’ finding a way 4 to sweep the team with the best record in MLB was stirring to say the least. In sum: NOT. BORING. AT. ALL.

pft
12 years ago
Reply to  Avattoir

The number of games played in the LDS and LCS were the fewest of all time (actually 1995 when the LDS started). Only 1 close game in 6 WS games. A post season to forget IMO

Avattoir
12 years ago

You know who I feel sorry for?

Not those suffering from Ebola with no hope of medical treatment. Not those 10,000 or so Americans who are gonna be gunned down over the next calendar year. Certainly not the unemployed, or those who used to subsist on umemployment relief or welfare and now are faced with alternatives of begging, dumpster diving or starving to death. Not those 30,000 folks in red states without medical insurance coverage who’re gonna die of untreated cancer and other horrible conditions over the next 12 months, or their children who will end up without anyone to take care of them. And most certainly not the American poor, who’ve to nothing to start with and less to look forward to, facing a future of dull helplessness and long-ground death.

Nah: I feel sorry for those downtrodden who somehow feel compelled to suffer thru an entire baseball season of 2,430 games and a seemingly interminable playoffs involving teams they couldn’t care less about competing in a series they hate in a game they find irretrievably repellent.

I think MLB, indeed America, owes those folks an apology.

Sam Fuld
12 years ago
Reply to  Avattoir

I bet your friend loves you.

figgy
12 years ago

I am pretty sure I saw George Will in attendance last night (palling around with Bud Selig). Did anyone else notice or can anyone confirm that ole grumpy gus was in the suites?

Asmo
12 years ago
Reply to  figgy

He was. Buck even mentioned it on air.

Grant
12 years ago

“Imagine if Peyton Manning or LeBron James or Sidney Crosby missed the final game of their postseason because they’d played too recently? Love you, baseball.”

I enjoy baseball, so I’m not coming at this from a hater’s perspective or anything…but why exactly is this a good thing? Sure, it’s a quirk of the game, and there’s not much that can be done about it, but why is it a positive that the best players (well, pitchers) may not play in the biggest game(s)? This seems a pretty far-fetched reason to trumpet baseball’s awesomeness. (Would basketball be more interesting if LeBron or Durant didn’t play in a Game 7? Of course not.)

Danmay
12 years ago
Reply to  Grant

I could be wrong, but I’m fairly certain that “Love you, baseball.” wasn’t intended to imply that this makes baseball better, but rather that he loves baseball anyway and he’s reminding baseball that he loves it even with all of its weird quirks.

Like ragging on a close friend and then finishing by saying “Love you”.

BenRevereDoesSteroids
12 years ago

“And if you really need a rooting interest, well, who among us doesn’t want to see Dan Uggla – 0 hits, 6 whiffs, and 2 errors in 4 games with San Francisco, all losses — come out of this with a World Series ring?”

That is a good point. Here is a better counter point: Bruce Chen.

Swfcdan
12 years ago

But why oh why isn’t Madbum pitching. Isn’t Bum on 3 days rest? Pitched sunday evening, we’re now wednesday evening.

Shocked he’s not starting, he’s their horse. Can see both pitchers getting knocked out early though so Bum might come in in a tied or close game, that should be the difference maker.

Swfcdan
12 years ago
Reply to  Swfcdan

Starting I mean. Obviously he’s going to pitch.

But Boch made an error not giving him the game 4 start which would have set him up perfectly for tonight.

pft
12 years ago

Lowest rating s of all time for a WS through 5 games. Best post season ever? Sounds like a Fox ad bite