Tigers + Ks + HR = Thames

by
June 14, 2008

Today we’re talking about Marcus Thames, the Tigers outfielder who essentially garners the following scouting report – “Will hit for power but not much else, and will strikeout a lot.”

Through 40 games this year, Thames is hitting .240/.307/.510 (compared to a .241/.306/.494 career line), doing all he can to show that he does not hit much but, when he does, it is generally of the extra-bases variety. Of his 25 hits this year, 12 (48%) are either doubles or home runs. Of all his seasons with at least 100 PA, his XBH percentages have ranged from 43-52%.

Due to this we can assume his ISO, basically the BA of extra base hits, to be higher than his overall BA:

2004: .255 BA, .255 ISO
2005: .196 BA, .215 ISO
2006: .256 BA, .293 ISO
2007: .242 BA, .257 ISO
2008: .240 BA, .269 ISO

His strikeout rates in this same span run from 22.1% to 35.5% so Thames knows how to confirm scouting reports. He hits for power more often than not but does not put the ball in play much due to the high volume of strikeouts. This is not to say he lacks value, though, as he has a positive career WPA and WPA/LI. This year, his WPA slash line (WPA/WPA-LI/Clutch) is currently 0.56/0.07/0.55.

He has contributed a little over half of a win to his team in WPA, but the large dropoff between that and WPA/LI suggests his contributions have more to do with the situations he finds himself in rather than his actual individual performance. He does not qualify for the Fangraphs leaderboards but, if he did, his Clutch score would rank 9th in the AL. I’ve read elsewhere that some fans (of different teams as well) would love for him to replace an unproductive outfielder of theirs, not just because of his “pop” but also his relatively low market value. He might be a decent upgrade over some other current outfielders but he should not be treated as a savior or any sort.

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The scouting report on him has not been wrong yet: Thames will strikeout a ton, won’t get on base much, won’t hit for average, but will hit for power. Nothing more, nothing less.





 

Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.

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dan
17 years ago

Umm… what happened to this post?

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