Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Greetings

Travis Sawchik: What’s everyone drinking? I’m on coffee No. 3 of the day ….

Travis Sawchik: We need to talk. So let’s begin …

CamdenWarehouse: Do you see the Pirates trading Cole this summer? There seems to be more rumors about him than any other starter at this point.

Travis Sawchik: If they are out of the race, or on the fringe of the race, they should absolutely explore the market.

Travis Sawchik: With the remaining club control (2.5 seasons), and the way he’s pitching, his value will never be greater

Travis Sawchik: He’s unlikely to stay, very unlikely, almost certainly signing elsewhere, so the Pirates need a good return on a former No. 1 overall pick. Andrew McCutchen is a very recent reminder of how quickly trade value you can evaporate

Kade: All of the data and technology that fans see today, front offices have had access to for a couple of years. Do you know how long they have been able to use the Statcast system and everything that comes with it. Specifically, how long have they been able to use xWOBA as a metric and how important do you think it has been in making trade/free agent decisions?

Travis Sawchik: That’s a good question(s). They haven’t had access prior to 2015, and I’m not sure about xwOBA, which was just made publicly available. There’s a lot of data clubs enjoy that does not appear publicly but I think everyone is still best learning how to use the new tools

caesar_solid: Is it just a coincidence that two of the best hitters in the game (Trout and Votto) both started out this year being more aggressive than ever before?

Travis Sawchik: Good question. Probably? Or were they both involved in an elaborate long con?

Jake: What can you tell us about Conforto’s arm? Made two throws this weekend that reached catcher on the fly and were as accurate as any throw I’ve seen from the outfield

Travis Sawchik: He made an incredible throw earlier this year from left for an assist. The arm appears to be a very real asset and it’s another skill that might make him more valuable than Kyle Schwarber from that first round.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: RE: the beanings of late, why isn’t the players’ union more active in trying to prevent its constituents from maiming each other? The league and umpires have been frustratingly inconsistent on warnings, ejections, and suspensions. No one warned before the game, Bautista hit, nothing happens. Andriese hits Judge, ejected, no warnings before or after. Olney had plenty of examples.

Travis Sawchik: It’s a tricky subject, of course, but one would think player safety is a top concern for MLBPA

Bionic Danny Hultzen: What’s wrong with Danny Salazar? Velo is mostly fine, right?

Travis Sawchik: A .362 BABIP doesn’t help … But he owns a career-best 32.9% K rate and 21.9 K-BB% rates so I’m not too worried. He’s missing plenty of bats

Ryan E: Thoughts on trading Gary Sanchez and some draft picks next year for Miguel Sano? Good move?

Travis Sawchik: To get Sano for your fantasy team? Yes

Josh: The Cubs postponed their game on Saturday vs Milwaukee 1.5 hours before the scheduled first pitch even though forecasts called for the rain to clear up, which it did. Why do home teams have unilateral control over this decision rather than the umpiring crew?

Travis Sawchik: I was at a game last year in Colorado last April when the Rockies called a game in similar fashion, and there was never any snow … So the Pirates had to make a special trip to Denver to play a single game several months later

Travis Sawchik: There was a thought then that the Rockies wanted to save their bullpen. It would make sense to give umpires complete control over game postponement, not just after a game starts

ManBearPuig: Any reason not to think that this year proves that Bryce Harper’s true talent is more like 2015 him than 2016 him?

Travis Sawchik: You could argue that Harper out-performed his expected values on batted balls in 2015 and this season, but he’d still be a great player with some regression. I think he was hurt last year and when he’s healthy he’s the best position player in the NL

Sean: If BABIP has remained somewhat constant even with increased shifts, could this be a result of taking elite athletes out of natural positions and lowering their range by bunching them together. More hard hit balls are fielded but a wider range of area is open for batters.

Travis Sawchik: It’s a complicated matter. Could it also be that teams are trying to squeeze more offense in the middle infield and trading off defensive range with the idea smarter alignment should reduce need for elite defenders?

Erik: Do you think clubs’ internally developed metrics measure the same things as publicly available metrics like WAR and DRA, just with slightly different inputs, or are they coming up with metrics for entirely different things?

Travis Sawchik: I know some clubs use metrics similar to WAR to come with a total single-metric value for players. Each sauce is a little different, I’m sure.

Tim in Philly: I got quite lucky in the late rounds this year with $1 Judge, Holland, Reynolds and Conforto. Which of Judge or Conforto is the better keeper going forward (2 more years)? Team seems headed for playoffs and I may trade one for a Stud SS/SP to win now.

Travis Sawchik: I love both. Dave and Jeff have said Judge in these chats, I’ve said Conforto previously. My only concern with Judge is if the league punches back and he’s more of a 35% K guy

Travis Sawchik: But he’s the exit velo Statcast king, who has made real adjustments, and plays in a a division of bandboxes. So for fantasy purposes, I can see the lean toward Judge

DTH: when it comes down to it, would you want your favorite team to sign a guy like Harper or Machado for $400+ million or is that too much for a single player? elite talent is elite talent, but that’s a lot of risk

Travis Sawchik: There is that idea that a club shouldn’t spend more than XX percent on a single player. The Indians did a study a decade ago that found no club had won a WS title by allocating more than 17% (or something close to that) to a single player

Travis Sawchik: But Harper and Machado could (will) well exceed that mark….and they are worthy exceptions to the rule given their age and production

Travis Sawchik: Part of the problem with any study on payroll allocation is veteran players are more expensive. These guys are in their mid 20s

STiVo: re Harper: does it make the most sense to say he’s something like his full career stats? In other words, he’s a true talent 6.5ish win player per full season. That is also consistent with his ROS projections. It could also lead to numbers between 3.5 and 9.5 WAR for reasons that are hard to discern from fluky variation.

Travis Sawchik: That’s certainly plausible. But it’s also plausible that he’s getting better, still learning the game (he’s only 24!), and still a few years out from his prime. I do believe he’s become more selective this year. He’s zero-ing in pitch locations and crushing it

Los: Travis. I’ve enjoyed your work throughout the years from the Trib, to BDB , to fangraphs. You are one of my favorite baseball writers and I’m glad you are at fangraphs. One suggestion i have that I made on your Ryan Zimmerman article on Friday was related to the use of average launch angle. I think the focus on average is misguided because of the distribution on balls in each zone. I would like to know why you use average instead of the distribution in good areas vs bad areas.

Travis Sawchik: Thanks, Los. That might have been a better way to measure Zimmerman’s production and process, but he is also crushing everything in every zone

Thames: Do you think Thames’ recurring leg injuries will lead to him being traded to the AL to become a DH?

Travis Sawchik: This is the dream of every AL fan base. Yankee fans, he’ll be a free agent one winter after Bryce Harper

Adam: Does anyone have any kind of splits leaderboards where you can view stats by opposition? For example, you could view splits for all PA’s against a pitcher with a FIP- below 100. Would obviously be very difficult to build because the content would be dynamic, but would very interesting to see. At the very least could it be built once the season is complete?

Travis Sawchik: I think BaseballProspectus has a quality of competition tool

Braník Best: Wouldn’t the 2009 Yankees have spent more than 17% on Arod?

Travis Sawchik: I’d have to look it up, but the Cleveland FO’s study was done prior to that season

Travis Sawchik: Ideally, the study supported the idea you want to spread risk. But Harper and Machado also produce such value at such an age that they are worthy exceptions to the rule

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Do you think a franchise’s ultimate goal is to win championships or to make money? Obviously the answer varies (Mike Ilitch–RIP–and Jeff Loria are the extremes, in my estimation). But wouldn’t a team know that a Harper or Machado fills seats and sells jerseys? You can still find Rodriguez jerseys in Dallas/Fort Worth…

Travis Sawchik: I’m sure it’s different owner-to-owner on how they fall on that spectrum, but teams will try to factor in a player’s total value. It’s easier to quantify on-field value, and even that isn’t always easy

Braník Best: Re: arod in 2009, I’m wrong. His salary was ~15%

MR: So how much do you want to blame Rizzo for the Nationals bullpen problems? He’s getting killed around DC, but part of me doesn’t see too many great options he had in the off-season. Or maybe he is to blame long-term for not having developed more minor league relievers?

Travis Sawchik: Felipe Rivero would look pretty good in DC, right? Another example of the danger or trading controllable years for a short-term fix

CamdenWarehouse: The Cleveland study seems to have a bit of SSS issue to draw sweeping conclusions as to how to build a roster.

Travis Sawchik: True. And maybe it went beyond WS winners. I can’t be 100 percent sure about that. I looked at payroll allocation a few years ago for the Pittsburgh Trib. http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/7036813-74/payroll-rodriguez-tigers

Badger: I’d be willing to bet money Sanchez and Sano have similar production RoS.

Travis Sawchik: We should exchange PayPal information!

Charlie Skinner: How much of free agent value is determined by expected on-field production vs expected cash flows generated by the player? Obviously the two are connected, but I’d imagine there are a number of complexities in determining the answer.

Travis Sawchik: The majority is on-field production. One problem is what if a player (often a veteran) really falters? If you’re factoring outside-the-lines considerations you are setting up to be hit twice

Ranger: Conforto a .270/.350 30 HR guy in your estimation?

Travis Sawchik: I think that’s reasonable. And a better defender than some expected.

HP: should more MLB games start at 6:10 PM, in your opinion?

Travis Sawchik: As a former beat hack and father of a 2-year-old who struggles to make it to 11 p.m. at night before falling into REM cycle on the couch, I’d be in favor ….especially early-season games like the Indians do with game times in Cleveland

Marcus Banks: What is SSS? I keep seeing this used in chats.

Travis Sawchik: Small-sample size

Tom: I saw John Mozeliak give a q&a before Pujols became a free agent. He referenced something similar, saying the only time a team went to the World Series with I think it was 15% of their payroll in a corner infielder was the Rockies in 07 with Helton. He emphasized, and they lost.

Travis Sawchik: Mo is a good GM! I think the comp pick for Pujols was Wacha, too

Bionic Danny Hultzen: When is the super 2 deadline and is there any reason why Moncada shouldn’t be up when healthy? Brinson is at least blocked by outfielders who are hitting.

Travis Sawchik: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/projected-super-two-cutoff-2016…

Travis Sawchik: We’re close. I think teams like to play it cautious when avoiding that extra year of arb. Interesting that the Indians called up Bradley Zimmer when they did

Peter: Matt Harvey’s velocity has trended up since April, is there a good starter in there somewhere?

Travis Sawchik: It’s certainly plausible. The velocity was encouraging, and I believe with that surgery it was expected that he might take some time for the off-speed feel to return. Now is not the time to sell on harvey

Buzz: Samardzija leads the NL in FIP, xFIP and Siera, plus is posting this best sw strike rate in years. How much ERA regression should we expect?

Travis Sawchik: It’s interesting, for sure. Swinging strike is up just a point, though. And his pitch mix and velocity is within normal ranges … so i don’t know what’s going on there. Worth a deeper dive

Zorn: What can you tell me about Mike Clevinger?

Travis Sawchik: Four-pitch mix, good slider, improved command a bit in 3A this spring. He’s at least quality depth if not something more

Zach: What is Adam frazier?

Travis Sawchik: A left-handed hitter with an excellent compact swing and approach … though surprisingly shaky in the field for having been a college shortstop

Byron Buxton: Am I a valuable dynasty fantasy baseball asset?

Travis Sawchik: I’m continuing to be extremely patient with you

Greg: The Braves have three 19-year-olds at Double A who are all top-100 prospects. This seems weird for a team that isn’t competing. Is there something to earlier peaks and promoting players early, or is this simply them thinking they’ll be relevant sooner than everyone else thinks they will?

Travis Sawchik: Braves have been aggressive with some promotions. I’m not sure exactly why. Fried skipped High-A, I believe

Big Tuna: Do you have any hope for Joc Pederson this year?

Travis Sawchik: I do. He was nearly a 4-win player last year at Age 24

Asabin: Advice for someone beginning a career in baseball operations and trying to rise through the ranks?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t work in baseball operations, so I’m probably not the person to ask … But hard work, passion, integrity span all fields. And salary cannot be an early-concern focus or concern

Blackburn: If the Pirates traded Cole at the trade deadline, what would a return look like? Torres + another prospect?

Travis Sawchik: I’m sure the Pirates would want a package beginning something like that … I will be curious to see how patient the yankees are willing to be. They can get Cole for only cash after 2019

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Travis Sawchik: Is this a thing at FanGraphs? An infatuation with Matt Damon?

Rob Manfried: Per Nightengale, Nats didn’t trade a LHP and a 3B prospect (10-15 range) for D-Rob + half of his remaining salary. How much do they regret that right now?

Travis Sawchik: I’d more regret the Melancon trade. Rivero is really good

Travis Sawchik: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12076&position=P

Tip Tipson : Another Gun (bigger gun) to your head… If Sandy A. doesnt believe in this team with all the injuries will he wait til Sept to call up Rosario?

Travis Sawchik: I wouldn’t be ready to punt the season in May, so if you think he can help in June ….I’d make the call

Travis Sawchik: Rosario is raking as you know

Jerry DiPoto: Has any team had rotation injuries like the Mariners in the first 30 games of the season? Smyly missing 3 months, James pPaxton missing about a month, Felix missing 1.5 months, Iwakuma missing 2 months. What should be a decent rotation is now AAA quality. Not to mention nagging injuries for Nelson Cruz & Kyle Seager and DL stints for Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger & Robinson Cano (1-2-3) in lineup.

Travis Sawchik: It’s been an awful run of injury luck for sure, Paxton was amazing as many expected and I liked the Smyly add

Robby : Sorry for the noob question in advance, but where exactly do you find launch angles/avg. launch angles of players?

Travis Sawchik: There are no bad questions.

Travis Sawchik: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search

Harry Caray: Hey, if you were a hot dog, and you were starving, would you eat yourself?

Travis Sawchik: I enjoy an occasional hot dog. And it’s a sandwhich

Travis Sawchik: sandwich

Marcus Banks: With Gleyber headed to Triple A, it seems likely he could be called up to the big club this season. If so, where will he play? Castro and Gregorious have both played well. Headley has cooled off. Is he the odd man out?

Travis Sawchik: These are nice problems to have. I see the Yankees eventually moving some of that middle infield depth

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Suppose Andrew Benintendi continued to play at his present productive pace. How badly would Aaron Judge have to do not to win rookie of the year?

Travis Sawchik: He would have to be 2016 Aaron Judge

Ringling Bros and Barnum&Bailey: Did you ever atten our circus? If so what do you remember?

Travis Sawchik: I didn’t. Sad to hear you are no more. But I know the museum remains in Sarasota, Fla. and I hear it is worth a visit

Bleh: Is it surprising that the Dodgers appear to be so far ahead of the game in the “abuse the 10 day DL for the starting rotation” game?

Was their team designed with the new DL rule in mind or was it a happy coincidence? Because it seems to be working great

Travis Sawchik: This seemed very predictable given the amount of quality arms, and the injury resumes of those arms, and it’s a really smart FO, of course

Guest: Godley only 1 K in 7 IP yesterday against the measly Padres. One bad start, or was the hype on him a bit too much?

Travis Sawchik: the peripherals are strong with this one. It’s just a start. 13% swinging strike rate, great GB%

Jake: What’s going on with Alex Avila? Obviously the .489 babip is outrageous but he also has a 58% hard hit rate which seems hard to fake

Travis Sawchik: Good question. Have he and JD Martinez been talking about swing plane?

JRuby: Is the 10-day DL being abused, or is it working exactly as intended?

Travis Sawchik: Both?

Will McAvoy: Bryce Harper is better than Mike Trout

Travis Sawchik: No … but it could happen

Andrew: So did Sano also figure out how to play third base? I was shocked to see him 3rd on the leaderboard. Sample size or is he maybe serviceable there now?

Travis Sawchik: Dave Cameron wrote an interesting piece back in March off Statcast data that suggested his skill set (reaction time, arm strength, etc) actually fits pretty well at third. It’s a position more about reaction than range

Travis Sawchik: Let me find the link …

Travis Sawchik: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/miguel-sano-defensive-superstar/

Travis Sawchik: Dave knows …

BengieStacks: Wilmer Font: No room in LA but he looks super interesting. What’s his future? Starting? Chris Devenski role? Traded?

Travis Sawchik: I’d like to see more Devenskis in the world

Dozier some nice Hanigers: What catcher would you rather have ROS: Gattis, Grandal, or Contreras?

Travis Sawchik: Grandal is my guy

Batflips for BB: Given the increasing percent of breaking balls being thrown, do you think we’ll see more major league knuckleballers, or the return of the screwball?

Travis Sawchik: Honeywell will give us the screwball … Not sure about knuckleballers. I’m surprised we don’t see more failed prospects turn to the knuckleball

JRuby: Travis: I get my caffeine from two 20 oz. bottles of Diet Dr. Pepper each day

Travis Sawchik: I cannot recommend your approach

joe: how would you characterize most analytic departments today? are they data gronkers and report runners or do they transform the business by influencing what should be analyzed, questions answered, strategy, etc?

Travis Sawchik: Ideally the later is what you are concerned with … but MLB also enjoys outside hobbyists (and FanGraphs!) to think about the game in interesting ways– and they can freely pluck those insights. For instance, I believe pitch framing research began outside the industry

Q-Ball: If we re-drafted the top of the 2015 draft today, what would that look like? Maybe….Benintendi, Tucker, Swanson, Happ, Bregman? Am I missing someone?

Travis Sawchik: That sounds about right

Erik: What’s more likely: A) the Cubs decide Schwarber is too big of a liability in left and trade him, or B) Schwarber becomes a viable defensive outfielder?

Travis Sawchik: The Cubs love Schwarber but he fits best … in the AL

Rodriguez: You buy Lindors power spike?

Travis Sawchik: Yes

Pie: Fiers and Morton have not looked well over the past few weeks. With McHugh still a ways away, should we be expecting the Astros to pull the trigger on a SP trade soon, or just wait till the summer?

Travis Sawchik: I believe in Morton….but let’s keep an eye on this situation. Houston has the goods to make a move for a SP piece

CubFan: Think Zimmer stays up if he’s hitting .220 with some power and speed? What’s the over/under slash line he needs to maintain?

Travis Sawchik: Could question. He’s part of the uppercut swing movement, too, so he might beat power expectations. Biggest thing is the Indians need someone to play CF

Billy Beane: A hot dog is not a sandwich, Travis. That isn’t funny.

Travis Sawchik: Protein and a carb. It absolutely is.

West Coast: Being awake for these chats is tough. I feel a lot of pressure to ask a good question, but I dunno what to ask…

Travis Sawchik: These are nice people here. Don’t be fearful

Billy Beane: Khris>Chris. Your thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: Sure looks that way, right?

Sam: True or false the mets have the two best left fielders in baseball (besides maybe marte)

Travis Sawchik: One might need to play CF

Larping: Which player has the biggest value gap between their bat and glove and vice versa?

Travis Sawchik: Well, many probably anticipated Schwarber would be the answer and that could still be true

Travis Sawchik: Zimmerman?

Travis Sawchik: Odubel Herrera?

Wes: If you were rebuilding in a dynasty would you deal Votto for Moncada/Baez?

Travis Sawchik: I think so

El Tiant: Hey Travis, I love your work and thanks for the great chats. I’m in a 16-team redraft, Our pitching cats are: innings per start, K, ERA, WHIP, QS. There is a dearth of options for starting pitchers. Please lend some names to watch for in the near future.

Travis Sawchik: Waiver wire? JC Ramirez … Nate Karns …

Moltar: Diet Dr Pepper is the Mike Trout of soda.

Travis Sawchik: Just say no to soda. I try to never have it in the house

SammySoso: As a Cubs fan, I love the potential upside of Schwarber. But as I look at their roster, I can’t help but see an overwhelming need for starting pitching depth. Conversely, the Rays have considerable pitching upside with few true offensive threats in the system. Any chance these teams look at working out a swap for Archer (with the cubs potentially sending a little more to even things out)?

Travis Sawchik: Eventually the Cubs will have to trade a bat for pitching

CamdenWarehouse: Is anyone looking at possible long term impacts of the 10 day DL on rosters? Like more transactions on the 40 man, guys being called up earlier than normal, possible earlier free agency as a result. I know it’s early but at least the first one of those probably has enough evidence to judge.

Travis Sawchik: Interesting. I had not considered this.

Jon: Shoudn’t the MLBPA be speaking out against the Dodgers heavy use of the 10-day DL, given how some of their members, such as Kenta Maeda, have incentives in their contract that pay them based on how many starts they make?

Travis Sawchik: The DL has long been a roster manipulation tool … and now the Dodgers are really using into to create maximum roster flexibility

DaJudge: So if the yanks want to have a 213 million dollar payroll and don’t want to exceed 15% for any one player they could sign Harper and machado to 14 year deals worth $450 million. That’s about $32 million annually for those 2 players. $64 million total. Given that they have less than $100 million on the books for 2019 that seems doable right?

Travis Sawchik: I suspect each player beats that AAV

Cee Jay: Jose Ramirez or Alex Bregman?

Travis Sawchik: Ramirez is so underrated

CamdenWarehouse: Travis Sawchik
12:58
There are no bad questions.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search
Harry Caray
12:58
Hey, if you were a hot dog, and you were starving, would you eat yourself?

Travis Sawchik: Not a bad question!

purist: do you think tacos are sandwiches too?

Travis Sawchik: Same family, different species

Nick S: A hot dog is a hot dog with or without the bun. Hamburger is hamburger with or without the bun. A sandwich is nothing without the bread. That’s what defines the sandwich/notsandwich line!

Travis Sawchik: A hot dog is a sausage without the bread, a hamburger is ground beef

Jake: Would you consider giving Grandal another MVP vote this year? Hitting well and is dominating framing and even Fangraphs defensive value that doesn’t include it.

Travis Sawchik: I would! But I don’t think I will have a vote this year. The MVP votes often rotate around to different voters in BBWAA chapters.

Travis Sawchik: Sorry, Yasmani. But we will alway have 2016 and your 22nd place NL MVP finish

Travis Sawchik: Alright folks, I have to go create fresh content

Travis Sawchik: Thanks for all of the question. And i do mean all of them despite Camden’s suspicions

Travis Sawchik: Same time/place next

Travis Sawchik: Be good, do goo