Welcome Yourself to NERD Game Scores for 2015

April 27, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. What follows represents the first edition of NERD scores for 2015.

Read more about the components of NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at San Diego | 22:10 ET
Collin McHugh (18.2 IP, 67 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR) faces James Shields (25.0 IP, 85 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR). After producing last year a strikeout- and walk-rate differential (18.7 points) that far exceeded his previously established levels, the former has both (a) exactly matched that same differential while also (b) inducing about 25% more grounders on balls in play. Probably, if not definitely, related: McHugh has replaced about 10% of his fastballs with sliders. With regard to the Padres, the current UZR figures — published on the site for the first time last night — suggest that San Diego has had predictable difficulties in converting batted balls into outs. Despite that, the club features a 30% chance currently of qualifying for the divisional series.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Probably Houston Radio.

Three Brief Notes
Regarding the Pitcher Inning Minimum
Typically, for those pitchers who’ve recorded fewer than 20 innings, their NERD score falls to the discretion of the very handsome author. Given the relative paucity of games thus far, however, that threshold has been lowered to 10 innings.

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Regarding Jason Marquis’ Success
Aged Cincinnati right-hander Jason Marquis has produced strikeout (29.6%) and swinging-strike (12.1%) numbers ove rhis first 15.0 innings which exceed probably his 95th percentile projection and also probably all the percentiles above that. Craig Edwards recently considered how that’s possible. In brief, a splitter is probably responsible for much of it.

Regarding Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Seattle at Texas, starts at 20:05 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that the calculations both for team and game NERD scores have changed recently to better integrate playoff odds into same. Read more about those changes here, if you’re the sort of person accustomed to making poor life decisions.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Jason Vargas	KC	5	7	7	6	10	CLE	Corey Kluber	18:10
Aaron Sanchez	TOR	4	7	6	5	8	BOS	Joe Kelly	18:10
Hector Noesi	CHA	4	1	5	6	6	BAL	Ubaldo Jimenez	19:05
Nate Karns	TB	5	6	4	6	2	NYA	Adam Warren	19:05
Jimmy Nelson	MIL	8	1	7	4	9	CIN	Jason Marquis	19:10
Dillon Gee	NYN	9	7	7	5	7	MIA	Jarred Cosart	19:10
Doug Fister	WAS	3	5	5	4	6	ATL	Eric Stults	19:10
Vance Worley	PIT	4	7	6	6	8	CHN	Jason Hammel	20:05
Taijuan Walker	SEA	6	6	6	3	7	TEX	Yovani Gallardo	20:05
David Price	DET	5	5	4	2	2	MIN	Tommy Milone	20:10
Cole Hamels	PHI	6	1	6	6	7	STL	John Lackey	20:15
Tyler Matzek	COL	0	4	3	5	6	AZ	Chase Anderson	21:40
Collin McHugh	HOU	8	9	8	4	8	SD	James Shields	22:10
Tim Lincecum	SF	5	4	6	8	8	LAN	Brett Anderson	22:10

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.