Werth the Risk

While researching for the article my brother and I are writing in this year’s THT Annual, I stumbled across an interesting tidbit regarding Pat Gillick: he loves acquiring players he formerly employed. I won’t go through the whole list now, but, with the Phillies at least, he signed or traded for Jamie Moyer, Arthur Rhodes, Greg Dobbs, Freddy Garcia, and Ryan Franklin. Another former player of his is Jayson Werth. Werth never played for Gillick’s Blue Jays, Orioles, or Mariners, but he was drafted by Gillick’s Orioles in the first round back in 1997.

It should come as no surprise, then, that when Werth was let go by the Dodgers following injury recovery, Gillick jumped up and brought him to the Phillies. He performed well in a platoon role last year and looked to possess all the raw skills that make a player successful. This year, the plan was for Werth to platoon with Geoff Jenkins in right field. Jenkins was inconsistent—or consistently below average depending on how you want to phrase it—and is now hurt, while Werth has been a rock for the Phillies. In fact, over the last fourteen days, no other hitter has contributed more wins to his team than Werth.

That’s right… over the last fourteen days, Jayson’s 1.16 WPA/LI leads all major league hitters. Mark Teixeira is in second place at 0.90, just about one quarter of a win lower. Werth’s WPA in this span ranks third in the NL and fifth in the whole sport, behind three Carlos’s (Beltran, Delgado, Pena) and Shin-Soo Choo. This impressive run is built upon a .370/.492/.804 slash line, complete with 5 home runs and 5 doubles.

All told, Werth is hiting .279/.377/.525 this year, a .902 OPS, with 21 home runs in 326 at-bats. He has turned some of his grounders into flyballs and has a 22.6% HR/FB, up from last year’s 13.3%. His 2.52 WPA/LI on the season ranks, believe it or not, 15th in the National League, ahead of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Dan Uggla, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez. Whether or not some of those players are having down years, the fact remains that Jayson Werth, a low risk acquisition prior to last season, is one of the main reasons the Phillies are still within striking distance of the NL East.