Why Nobody Is Talking About Justin Upton
Check out the MLB Trade Rumors page for Justin Upton, and you find something strange. Since a report on November 13 that the outfielder had been extended a qualifying offer, Upton has been invoked just three times there — in one case, with the Angels, merely to note that “nothing is happening” between Upton and the club. Los Angeles was merely engaged in “ongoing conversations” with Upton’s representatives. Whether those conversations are about a possible contract or fondue, no one knows. They’re having conversations.
Now check out the Ben Zobrist page. Even before signing last night with the Cubs, his name was ubiquitous across the site.
And that’s weird. One is 34 and was worth two wins last year. The other is 28 and was worth almost twice as much. You’d think the rumor count would be reversed.
The first thought is that Upton will cost more than Zobrist, so the cost-conscious teams are more likely to whip themselves into a frenzy about the more attainable piece. Or stated differently: there are fewer teams that can afford the contract that Justin Upton is likely to command, so there are fewer teams that might generate rumors about the player.
But it might be a little more complicated than that. It might have something to with the way the market is structured, particularly in the outfield market. His skills may not line up well to fit any specific team need perfectly.
Want defense? Then you’re most likely into Jason Heyward or Alex Gordon. Maybe you want something cheaper and you’re looking at Dexter Fowler in a corner outfield spot. (Upton’s all the way down there with the 19th-best defensive value last year.)
Want power? Then, at the very least, Upton only slots behind Yoenis Cespedes. Maybe the White Sox, Giants, Cardinals, or Tigers would like to pick up a player whose value is mostly tied up in power. Some of those teams have been linked to Cespedes, and some of those teams are probably unconcerned with their lack of power. And if they want right-handed power but don’t want to spend the big ticket price, they can consider Marlon Byrd or Steve Pearce.
Looking for youth? Then Justin Upton is the second-youngest position player on the market, which is good. He’s still behind Heyward.
Want to add contact? There’s Zobrist, Heyward, and Denard Span with good strikeout rates. Want to add patience? Upton is fine, but Zobrist, Fowler, and Gordon are better. Want your hitter to control the zone on both sides of the equation? There are maybe 19 hitters better at hitter strikeouts minus walks than Upton, since he strikes out a fair amount.
| Name | PA | HR | BB% | K% | K-BB% | WAR |
| Ben Zobrist | 535 | 13 | 11.6% | 10.5% | -1.1% | 2.1 |
| Denard Span | 275 | 5 | 9.1% | 9.5% | 0.4% | 1.4 |
| Jason Heyward | 610 | 13 | 9.2% | 14.8% | 5.6% | 6.0 |
| Mike Aviles | 317 | 5 | 6.3% | 12.0% | 5.7% | -0.9 |
| David Murphy | 391 | 10 | 5.1% | 12.5% | 7.4% | 0.3 |
| Shane Victorino | 204 | 1 | 7.8% | 15.7% | 7.9% | 0.0 |
| Dexter Fowler | 690 | 17 | 12.2% | 22.3% | 10.1% | 3.2 |
| Alex Gordon | 422 | 13 | 11.6% | 21.8% | 10.2% | 2.8 |
| Skip Schumaker | 268 | 1 | 8.6% | 19.0% | 10.4% | -1.1 |
| Ryan Raburn | 201 | 8 | 11.4% | 21.9% | 10.5% | 1.4 |
| Gerardo Parra | 589 | 14 | 4.8% | 15.6% | 10.8% | 0.4 |
| Chris Young | 356 | 14 | 8.4% | 20.5% | 12.1% | 1.2 |
| Alex Rios | 411 | 4 | 3.6% | 16.3% | 12.7% | 0.2 |
| Matt Joyce | 284 | 5 | 10.6% | 23.6% | 13.0% | -1.4 |
| Grady Sizemore | 296 | 6 | 6.8% | 20.3% | 13.5% | -0.6 |
| Steve Pearce | 325 | 15 | 7.1% | 21.2% | 14.1% | 0.3 |
| Alejandro De Aza | 365 | 7 | 8.5% | 23.0% | 14.5% | 1.2 |
| Rajai Davis | 370 | 8 | 5.9% | 20.5% | 14.6% | 1.8 |
| Will Venable | 390 | 6 | 9.5% | 24.1% | 14.6% | 1.2 |
| Justin Upton | 620 | 26 | 11.0% | 25.6% | 14.6% | 3.6 |
Maybe it seems silly to say that Upton isn’t a great option right now when he’s the second-youngest position player with some of the best power on the list. But that’s not what the market is saying, not really.
The market is made up of single teams with singular needs for their teams. And in each case, these teams have needs. They see certain players as best fits for their team. And while there are guys out there that are better at each particular skill, Justin Upton has to wait.
You can call it establishing the market, too. If you’re Upton, why not wait for the number one positional free agent, Jason Heyward, to push the market as far as it can go? That’ll only mean good things for your contract when it’s time to sign.
So there aren’t many rumors surrounding Justin Upton right now. He’s probably not too worried about it. That’s his agent’s problem, anyway.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Gee, THANKS, Eno.
Maybe he has emotional issues like his brother.
Prediction: This is the first of what will be many unfounded insinuations about Justin Upton on this article. Insinuations that won’t be leveled at white baseball players.
Conclusion: This comment is absolutely ridiculous. Go race-bait elsewhere.
Query: Why are these insinuations not being leveled at Jason Heyward also?
Jason Heyward has emotional issues like his brother.
There are plenty of rumors about Jason Heyward.
Because white people like it when black people keep their mouths shut, and Jason Heyward is known for going about his business quietly. Upton, on the other hand, has a lot of opinions about stuff and voices them frequently, which white people perceive as “emotional issues.”
For what it’s worth, if anyone in this league has “emotional issues,” it’s Bryce Harper, but no one’s going around claiming that he could perform better on the field if he fixed his attitude.
Bryce Harper was a terrible example to use of a white player not being criticized for his personality.
It isn’t because Jason Heyward is quiet, it’s because defense, especially outside defense, is a big deal these days, largely because of the Royals.
Yeah, if you want to discuss how minority athletes get criticized for being outspoken and having personality, it’s a valid conversation. But your Justin Upton example has no merit. The only criticism I’ve ever heard about Upton is that he’s never quite lived up to his superstar potential.
And Bryce Harper is the absolute worse example of a white guy who gets a free pass. He’s constantly criticized for his personality.
do you think teams really sit around figuring out how to maximize on one dimension: power, defense, contact, or youth?
funny, i thought that they were just trying to get better.
mlbtr is not “the market.” let’s wait and see what he gets paid before making pronouncements on what the market thinks.
Mixed lineups are better than homogenous lineups, I’ve seen that in research. And yes, I think certain players are better fits for certain teams. I don’t think they try to maximize one dimension, that wasn’t the point of that section.
The research I’ve seen has shown that teams with a lot of contact hitters benefit more from adding more contact hitters while teams with three-true-outcome hitters benefit more from adding more three-true-outcome hitters, as with the Royals and Astros respectively this year. That’s the reserve of what you’re saying.
We simulated a thousand games of Vlad Guerrero and Adam Dunn teams and then a mixed team (same wRC+) and found that the mixed team did best. I’ve seen what you’re talking bout too, though. Broader point was that Upton is just second- or third-best, no matter how you look at it really, so he has to wait.
So what do you think of the contradictory findings then? A lot of my thinking is based on having spent a lot of time calculating WPA by hand, and it’s clear that if you add a Astros-type hitter to a high-OBP team, he’s going to come up a lot with runners in scoring position and his large percentage of outs will give him huge -WPAs which won’t be nearly compensated by his occasional HRs, whereas if he’s on a team of Astros-type hitters, he’ll come up a lot with no one on base or maybe someone one 1st and frequent outs won’t cost him much in terms of WPA whereas even solo HRs will give him a big +WPA.
Eno, isn’t that just one example? Maybe Guerrero and Dunn just don’t have chemistry together. Have you tried a team of Adrian Beltres and Mike Napolis? Maybe they’d get along better.
Wow Eno, you convinced me that my team, the Red Sox, should sign him today. And we all know they have too many outfielders as is.
I wonder how many years Upton comes away with? Six years doesn’t seem like too bad of a contract. He would only be 34 by the end of it.
Teams are looking for bargains and to act in ways that adhere to the new thinking in baseball. Basically, to find market inefficiencies and exploit them. Right now that means defense, starting pitching depth, years of control, on-base skills, and versatility. Justin Upton doesn’t represent any of these things.
Essentially, it’s pretty hard for any team to convince themselves they’re getting a good deal with Justin Upton. you’re going to pay for exactly what you get. Big market teams can afford that, but most of those don’t need a Justin Upton right now. And smaller market teams can’t compete buy just buying at face value.
The connection made here is dubious. I don’t think we should equate lack of rumors and lack of a signing with lack of interest.
If it was just a matter of skillsets, why haven’t any of the other big FA signed? It just seems like the FA pitching situation and the big trades are being worked out before the market gets to the FA outfielders. I see no evidence this is affecting Upton more than Heyward, Cespedes, etc.
Justin Upton is a good example of why the Gold Glove awards should go back to just giving out 3 awards per league regardless of outfield position. Nobody thinks Upton is a good defensive outfielder, but since there are so few full time left fielders, Upton has been nominated for a GG the past two years.
The outfield positions may be similar, but they’re still different positions. If you combined them for the gold glove you might as well combine shortstop and second base as well.
# of players who started at least 100 games at a position in 2015:
C: 17
1b: 21
2b: 18
SS: 23
Lf: 8
CF: 23
RF: 19
There just aren’t enough full time left fielders to justify a separate defensive award for them. The same is not true for the other positions.
2015 was a particularly weak year for left fielders. In 2005, there were 20 players who started at least 100 games in LF. This could be an interesting trend to explore.
Well, actually there were only 17 in 2005, but there were 19 in 2003. Why?
I think that teams care more about defense nowadays. And in 2003, there were a lot more big boppers for teams to park in LF: Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, Moises Alou, Pat Burrell, Barry Bonds, and Manny Ramirez.
Of those 19 in 2003, only Carl Crawford and Albert Pujols are still active.
Eno, don’t you think Strikeouts/Walks would be the better metric? A high contact hitter who never walks doesn’t necessarily have better plate discipline than a slugger who whiffs often.
Perhaps teams are concerned that somehow, some way, they’ll be saddled with Melvin as well….
Melvin was a league average player last year.
That’s a fair point, but I know a lot of teams that would take the nameless league average player over melvin upton. Does that still make him league average? Funny to muse over at what point a player’s personality bleeds onto the back of their baseball card.
Want power?
Give the market a chance to make itself. Cespedes or Heyward aren’t signed yet either so let’s see if who’s first off the board and the market will adjust accordingly. It’s still early.
From watching two frustrating seasons with the braves (he’s awfully streaky, and the bad times are bad — the good quite good) the thing that struck me about justin upton is that he cannot hit high fastballs. Mashes them down the middle or low. But up is a free zone for pitchers. they can lob them in at 90 and he’s never gonna hit one. seems to be a pretty exploitable hole, and perhaps one the league knows about. all else equal he should be better than he is. ::consults data to see if recollections have any basis in reality::
This article is crap. I literally heard two dudes at the bar talking about Upton last night. They seemed wise, too.
Justin Upton is like Jeb Bush. His brother has likely forever sullied his good name, justifiably or not.
Shouldn’t Daniel Murphy be like 3rd on the list of free agents with low K%-BB%?
I think it’s simple: Upton, as noted, isn’t as good defensively as Heyward, and doesn’t quite have the power of Cespedes. They’re both unsigned, and Upton is the fallback for both. Until they get signed, Justin just has to wait his turn.
Yordanos delivery. Stop making this a black white thing. I’m so sick of whiny people like you its because he is black. Man shut up with that shit. The truth is Upton is to emotional crying about something all the time. Justin on the other hand just goes about his business like a man does. And yes harper is like Justin brother but harper is putting up mvp numbers so people put up with it. Justins brother on the other hand should be signing gods praise that someone is still willing to pay him millions for that shity production. Justins brother gets paid handsomely to suck at his job so I don’t understand why he complains so much.