Why Nobody Is Talking About Justin Upton
Check out the MLB Trade Rumors page for Justin Upton, and you find something strange. Since a report on November 13 that the outfielder had been extended a qualifying offer, Upton has been invoked just three times there — in one case, with the Angels, merely to note that “nothing is happening” between Upton and the club. Los Angeles was merely engaged in “ongoing conversations” with Upton’s representatives. Whether those conversations are about a possible contract or fondue, no one knows. They’re having conversations.
Now check out the Ben Zobrist page. Even before signing last night with the Cubs, his name was ubiquitous across the site.
And that’s weird. One is 34 and was worth two wins last year. The other is 28 and was worth almost twice as much. You’d think the rumor count would be reversed.
The first thought is that Upton will cost more than Zobrist, so the cost-conscious teams are more likely to whip themselves into a frenzy about the more attainable piece. Or stated differently: there are fewer teams that can afford the contract that Justin Upton is likely to command, so there are fewer teams that might generate rumors about the player.
But it might be a little more complicated than that. It might have something to with the way the market is structured, particularly in the outfield market. His skills may not line up well to fit any specific team need perfectly.
Want defense? Then you’re most likely into Jason Heyward or Alex Gordon. Maybe you want something cheaper and you’re looking at Dexter Fowler in a corner outfield spot. (Upton’s all the way down there with the 19th-best defensive value last year.)
Want power? Then, at the very least, Upton only slots behind Yoenis Cespedes. Maybe the White Sox, Giants, Cardinals, or Tigers would like to pick up a player whose value is mostly tied up in power. Some of those teams have been linked to Cespedes, and some of those teams are probably unconcerned with their lack of power. And if they want right-handed power but don’t want to spend the big ticket price, they can consider Marlon Byrd or Steve Pearce.
Looking for youth? Then Justin Upton is the second-youngest position player on the market, which is good. He’s still behind Heyward.
Want to add contact? There’s Zobrist, Heyward, and Denard Span with good strikeout rates. Want to add patience? Upton is fine, but Zobrist, Fowler, and Gordon are better. Want your hitter to control the zone on both sides of the equation? There are maybe 19 hitters better at hitter strikeouts minus walks than Upton, since he strikes out a fair amount.
| Name | PA | HR | BB% | K% | K-BB% | WAR |
| Ben Zobrist | 535 | 13 | 11.6% | 10.5% | -1.1% | 2.1 |
| Denard Span | 275 | 5 | 9.1% | 9.5% | 0.4% | 1.4 |
| Jason Heyward | 610 | 13 | 9.2% | 14.8% | 5.6% | 6.0 |
| Mike Aviles | 317 | 5 | 6.3% | 12.0% | 5.7% | -0.9 |
| David Murphy | 391 | 10 | 5.1% | 12.5% | 7.4% | 0.3 |
| Shane Victorino | 204 | 1 | 7.8% | 15.7% | 7.9% | 0.0 |
| Dexter Fowler | 690 | 17 | 12.2% | 22.3% | 10.1% | 3.2 |
| Alex Gordon | 422 | 13 | 11.6% | 21.8% | 10.2% | 2.8 |
| Skip Schumaker | 268 | 1 | 8.6% | 19.0% | 10.4% | -1.1 |
| Ryan Raburn | 201 | 8 | 11.4% | 21.9% | 10.5% | 1.4 |
| Gerardo Parra | 589 | 14 | 4.8% | 15.6% | 10.8% | 0.4 |
| Chris Young | 356 | 14 | 8.4% | 20.5% | 12.1% | 1.2 |
| Alex Rios | 411 | 4 | 3.6% | 16.3% | 12.7% | 0.2 |
| Matt Joyce | 284 | 5 | 10.6% | 23.6% | 13.0% | -1.4 |
| Grady Sizemore | 296 | 6 | 6.8% | 20.3% | 13.5% | -0.6 |
| Steve Pearce | 325 | 15 | 7.1% | 21.2% | 14.1% | 0.3 |
| Alejandro De Aza | 365 | 7 | 8.5% | 23.0% | 14.5% | 1.2 |
| Rajai Davis | 370 | 8 | 5.9% | 20.5% | 14.6% | 1.8 |
| Will Venable | 390 | 6 | 9.5% | 24.1% | 14.6% | 1.2 |
| Justin Upton | 620 | 26 | 11.0% | 25.6% | 14.6% | 3.6 |
Maybe it seems silly to say that Upton isn’t a great option right now when he’s the second-youngest position player with some of the best power on the list. But that’s not what the market is saying, not really.
The market is made up of single teams with singular needs for their teams. And in each case, these teams have needs. They see certain players as best fits for their team. And while there are guys out there that are better at each particular skill, Justin Upton has to wait.
You can call it establishing the market, too. If you’re Upton, why not wait for the number one positional free agent, Jason Heyward, to push the market as far as it can go? That’ll only mean good things for your contract when it’s time to sign.
So there aren’t many rumors surrounding Justin Upton right now. He’s probably not too worried about it. That’s his agent’s problem, anyway.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Gee, THANKS, Eno.