7:58 |
Dave Cameron: It’s Game 2! It can’t be worse than Game 1!
|
7:58 |
Dave Cameron: “Billy Butler is Miguel Cabrera!” *everyone laughs*;*
|
8:01 |
Comment From GuestWill Yost even consider switching up his “roles” in the bullpen if he gets 5 solid innings out of Ventura?
|
8:01 |
Dave Cameron: He did in the ALCS.
|
8:01 |
Comment From JaackIt can always be worse. You underestimate the power of the Giants to suck fun out of baseball.
|
8:02 |
Dave Cameron: Pablo Sandoval is the Reggie Jackson of our generation? Let’s go to the numbers.
|
8:02 |
Dave Cameron: Career postseason line: .328/.373/.550, .390 wOBA, 153 wRC+.
|
8:02 |
Dave Cameron: Pretty good.
|
8:03 |
Dave Cameron: Reggie Jackson: .278/.358/.527, .392 wOBA, 152 wRC+.
|
8:03 |
Dave Cameron: Verdict: Good call, Harold!
|
8:04 |
Comment From Sabeanhahahaha, the first “good call Harold” of the playoffs.
|
8:04 |
Dave Cameron: He had a few decent insights yesterday.
|
8:04 |
Comment From NickHow many at-bats against a specific pitcher would you want a batter to have in order to realistically determine if the batter excels against that pitcher?
|
8:04 |
Dave Cameron: More than exists in a reasonable time frame.
|
8:04 |
Dave Cameron: By the time you get a decent BvP sample, the data is so old as to not be useful anymore.
|
8:06 |
Comment From DanWhat about when the evidence is overwhelming? Like Goldschmidt vs Lincecum?
|
8:06 |
Dave Cameron: Still irrelevant. There’s a great chapter on this in The Book.
|
8:06 |
Comment From Hipolito PichardoWhat are the odds Erik Kratz gets into a game?
|
8:07 |
Dave Cameron: (1 – odds of Salvador Perez dying)
|
8:08 |
Comment From Guestthey showed regular season numbers on Ventura!
|
8:09 |
Dave Cameron: Welcome to 2014, when announcers are joking about a 96 mph pitch not being a guy’s best stuff.
|
8:10 |
Comment From GuestMarlins fan is back. Wonder how much money he’s spent ever on all these games.
|
8:10 |
Dave Cameron: He said the Marlins help him get tickets, I believe.
|
8:10 |
Dave Cameron: He’s been a season ticket holder there forever.
|
8:10 |
Comment From Hipolito PichardoHe spent $8,000 for Game 1 seats
|
8:11 |
Comment From Jaack50% of the Marlins budget is that dude going to WS games
|
8:11 |
Comment From GuestHe didn’t even stay for the whole game.
|
8:11 |
Dave Cameron: To be fair, I wanted to stop live blogging after about 6.
|
8:11 |
Dave Cameron: Gregor Blanco!
|
8:11 |
Dave Cameron: Pitcher velo + guessing fastball = little guy goes boom.
|
8:12 |
Comment From Brendanthe white shark! who would have thought SF could miss Pagan so little?
|
8:12 |
Dave Cameron: Blanco would be playing either way. No Pagan = Ishikawa in left.
|
8:13 |
Comment From FletchSo higher pitch velocity leads to higher batted ball velocity?
|
8:14 |
Dave Cameron: I think the last thing I read on it said it was something like 1 mph by pitcher = 2 mph increase in batter exit velo.
|
8:15 |
Comment From GuestThe thing at saber seminar comparing aluminum to wood and how the ball comes off was fascinating
|
8:16 |
Dave Cameron: Everything at Saber Seminar is fascinating, but yes, Alan’s talks are always great.
|
8:16 |
Comment From Larry BernandezI don’t understand the velo statement. That means that for every 1mph of pitcher velocity, the batter provides an extra 2 mph? A 100 mph fastball would therefore have 300 mph off the bat, which is way too much.
|
8:17 |
Dave Cameron: No, it’s within a certain range, not linear across the whole spectrum. So, say, the difference between 90 and 94 can lead to an 8 mph difference in exit velocity, but that doesn’t hold up for 40 to 80.
|
8:17 |
Dave Cameron: I could also have the ratio wrong, since I’m going off memory
|
8:18 |
Comment From RukiPerhaps it is 2 MPH on the pitch = 1 MPH on the ball when hit?
|
8:18 |
Comment From Ernie14Where’s Sullivan?
|
8:18 |
Dave Cameron: Stuck in a storm.
|
8:19 |
Comment From RukiIs it just me or do the Rob Lowe commercials make him out to be a rich douchebag type, who is “better” than the poor and the awkward?
|
8:19 |
Dave Cameron: You might be reading too much into a commercial.
|
8:20 |
Comment From DavidAs a Canadian, find it disgusting MLB didn’t give a little moment of silence for what happened in Ottawa
|
8:20 |
Dave Cameron: Do we know they didn’t? Maybe Fox just didn’t show it?
|
8:21 |
Dave Cameron: Brandon Crawford, error machine.
|
8:21 |
Dave Cameron: That’s a pretty difficult play, though.
|
8:21 |
Comment From GuestAlcides Escobar, hit machine!
|
8:22 |
Comment From Guestso not an error?
|
8:22 |
Dave Cameron: Yeah, they ruled it a hit.
|
8:22 |
Comment From Chris SingletonHello, guys. Chris Singleton here. Going to track you a little while.
|
8:23 |
Dave Cameron: Hi, person who may or may not be Chris Singleton.
|
8:23 |
Dave Cameron: It’d be neat if you were, though.
|
8:24 |
Dave Cameron: That was a Hunter Pence type dive.
|
8:24 |
Comment From Chris SingletonI’m sitting in the radio booth in KC.
|
8:24 |
Dave Cameron: I actually believe you. Say hi to Boog for me.
|
8:26 |
Comment From NewguyWhy isn’t Alex Gordon hitting in the top third of this order? What’s the rationale there?
|
8:26 |
Dave Cameron: “Stick with what got us here.” It’s kind of silly.
|
8:26 |
Dave Cameron: Chris Singleton status: confirmed!
|
8:26 |
Comment From GuestWhat is your general assessment on Ventura’s offspeed stuff based on what you have seen this year? Think he has what it takes to keep his platoon split in check going forward?
|
8:27 |
Dave Cameron: Curve is good, change is up and down.
|
8:27 |
Dave Cameron: I’m not sure he actually tagged him.
|
8:27 |
Dave Cameron: At least not when he went down.
|
8:28 |
Comment From GuestSee, stuff like that I like Harold for. He’s right in saying that letting the ball travel on steals helps. Ball is faster than hands. Great point
|
8:28 |
Comment From MattDoes Posey have yellow nail polish on?
|
8:28 |
Dave Cameron: Helps the pitcher see the signs better.
|
8:28 |
Comment From Chris SingletonLorenzo Cain’s bat stays in the zone a good while.
|
8:29 |
Dave Cameron: Nice attempt by Ishikawa, by I think a real LF gets that.
|
8:29 |
Dave Cameron: Not a great route, and an awkward dive angle.
|
8:30 |
Comment From GretPeavy is almost blind. Thats why Posey wears nail polish for him. He thought Ishikawas homer was a double. http://sports.yahoo.com/blo…
|
8:30 |
Comment From francisMike Morse ?
|
8:30 |
Dave Cameron: Mike Morse doesn’t even get close to it.
|
8:30 |
Comment From RukiIf only the Giants had a real LFer.
|
8:30 |
Dave Cameron: They do. He’s in center.
|
8:31 |
Comment From Chris SingletonLike how Hosmer is zoning in Peavy in this at bat. Peavy wants Butler.
|
8:32 |
Dave Cameron: Yeah, that looked like a pretty unintentional intentional walk.
|
8:32 |
Comment From GretI have a Petit feeling for tonight. He actually had a better SIERA than even Bumgarner this year (granted some of that was from the bullpen)
|
8:32 |
Dave Cameron: The Petit decision is interesting, because you kind of want him around for Vogelsong’s day too.
|
8:33 |
Comment From GuestNot sure why Peavy wants Butler, his numbers are atrocious against him.
|
8:33 |
Dave Cameron: Batter vs Pitcher numbers are useless.
|
8:34 |
Comment From SabeanCompletely useless?
|
8:35 |
Comment From Jesperlorenzo cain definitely wasn’t worried about ishikawa’s arm, heh
|
8:35 |
Comment From GuestButler try to steal here?
|
8:35 |
Comment From Guestyou don’t think a certain number of ABs can tell you whether a batter sees a pitcher well?
|
8:35 |
Dave Cameron: You cannot tell from the results.
|
8:35 |
Comment From SabeanI don’t know Dave, there are certain guys that just see a pitcher better. Whether it’s a comfortable release point, etc. A small sample is certainly useless, but all?
|
8:35 |
Jeff Sullivan: Oh my goodness I survived
|
8:36 |
Jeff Sullivan: Hello everybody, a half-hour late!
|
8:36 |
Dave Cameron: These things can be true, but it doesn’t mean you can use past match-up numbers to find those things.
|
8:36 |
Comment From ComptonBatter v Pitcher *type* worth anything?
|
8:37 |
Dave Cameron: Yes, you can make better generalizations by using pitcher families, or pitch types, or velocities.
|
8:37 |
Dave Cameron: But just this guy versus that guy? Useless.
|
8:37 |
Comment From JimboI would like Chris to comment on whether anyone from the Giants will talk to Peavey about not backing up the plate on Butler’s hit.
|
8:38 |
Jeff Sullivan: Example of where it works: Oakland against low-ball pitching sinker types
|
8:39 |
Comment From bucs_lose_againDoes anyone else’s MLB.tv player keep resetting to the national anthem every ten minutes?
|
8:39 |
Jeff Sullivan: No, the game is really doing that
|
8:39 |
Jeff Sullivan: 99, up and in, Pence’s helmet comes off…
|
8:39 |
Comment From JonAnd Royals fans cheer
|
8:39 |
Comment From DanAnd Buck finds it hilarious
|
8:39 |
Jeff Sullivan: What’s that 99 with the location’s effective velocity boost?
|
8:40 |
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve noted this before, but one of my great fears with the way people pitch Trout now is that it puts him at greater risk of a beanball
|
8:41 |
Dave Cameron: Has Ventura thrown a first pitch non-fastball yet?
|
8:41 |
Dave Cameron: Doesn’t feel like it.
|
8:41 |
Jeff Sullivan: although he’s varied between 94-100
|
8:41 |
Dave Cameron: That is something, at least.
|
8:42 |
Jeff Sullivan: I like what Chris Young said about how a fastball can be a bunch of different pitches
|
8:42 |
Comment From ComptonIs effective velocity greater on pitches up and in than pitches down and to-the-same-degree-of in?
|
8:42 |
Jeff Sullivan: The theory says yes
|
8:43 |
Dave Cameron: Where did Belt think that was?
|
8:43 |
Dave Cameron: A 97 mph two-seamer is rough, though.
|
8:43 |
Jeff Sullivan: Somebody vomited Skittles all over the man sitting next to Joe Torre
|
8:44 |
Comment From GuestHey guys, thanks for stopping by. Do you think there’s any interest or way baseball can switch to a different format than 2-3-2?
|
8:44 |
Jeff Sullivan: What would be the point? At least this way there’s no extra day off
|
8:46 |
Comment From GuestIn regards to 2-3-2 format, I always felt there was very little handicap by getting Games 3,4,5. If anything I see it as an advantage. Pivotal games.
|
8:46 |
Comment From BrandonWhat is the biggest factor in a pitcher who throws as hard as Ventura not getting K’s? deception? extension? movement?
|
8:46 |
Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the pitcher but sometimes it’s where they put the fastballs, and sometimes it’s people just sitting fastballs because they eliminate the other stuff
|
8:46 |
Dave Cameron: How about 4-3, with the team with HFA getting the first four? Guarantee four home games to the better team.
|
8:47 |
Dave Cameron: And only 1 off day.
|
8:47 |
Comment From francis4-3 is bad, because it means home fans will rarely get to see their team clinch.
|
8:47 |
Jeff Sullivan: Only thing missing is that then the worse team gets the highest-leverage potential home games
|
8:47 |
Comment From MJexcept it’s not necessarily the better team these days since the ASG determines home field
|
8:47 |
Comment From JakeWhat is Ventura’s ceiling? Solid number one?
|
8:48 |
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t mean to be a dick but that’s most pitchers’ ceiling
|
8:48 |
Jeff Sullivan: The word doesn’t mean anything
|
8:48 |
Comment From JaackKevin Correia, future number 1
|
8:49 |
Comment From TomHWhat would be your “Dream Team” Broadcasting Crew? Pick 3.
|
8:49 |
Dave Cameron: Vin Scully and two mute people.
|
8:50 |
Jeff Sullivan: Correia was the Giants’ #6 prospect before 2004. 7 was Travis Ishikawa! 1 was Merkin Valdez.
|
8:50 |
Dave Cameron: I can’t believe someone named their kid Merkin.
|
8:50 |
Jeff Sullivan: Pitcher mic…
|
8:50 |
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t give Jake Peavy a pitcher mic.
|
8:50 |
Dave Cameron: Omar Infante and Gregor Blanco providing the power.
|
8:50 |
Jeff Sullivan: This is going to be more foul than grunting.
|
8:51 |
Dave Cameron: I bet the fans in the second row love the guys in the first standing up and spreading their arms out.
|
8:52 |
Comment From SabeanA number one is not most pitchers’ ceilings. Most don’t have the stuff or durability to do that.
|
8:53 |
Jeff Sullivan: We can’t measure durability and Tom Glavine was a number one for a while
|
8:53 |
Jeff Sullivan: Give a guy command and a changeup and he’s awesome
|
8:53 |
Comment From magic johnsons chequbookBuster Posey is probably the best starter in this series. Who is the worst?
|
8:53 |
Dave Cameron: Cliff Lee was a #5 until he was a #1.
|
8:53 |
Dave Cameron: Jake Peavy is not long for this game.
|
8:54 |
Jeff Sullivan: Fastball right over the middle and Escobar has to fight it off somehow
|
8:54 |
Jeff Sullivan: But! Today I learned Escobar posted a 94 wRC+ this season
|
8:55 |
Comment From YoopkaWhy is Peavy so angry all the time?
|
8:55 |
Jeff Sullivan: They call it fiery
|
8:55 |
Jeff Sullivan: He’s a football player playing baseball
|
8:55 |
Comment From Henry…SF could use Timmy today if Peavy needs to be yanked early but they probably won’t right?
|
8:55 |
Dave Cameron: Not unless it gets out of hand.
|
8:55 |
Comment From YoopkaWho has the most unusual batting stance in MLB? Cause I think Aoki has to be up there
|
8:56 |
Dave Cameron: Hunter Pence has the most unusual everything.
|
8:56 |
Jeff Sullivan: Aoki is a lot of fun to watch hit for someone who isn’t very good
|
8:56 |
Comment From Jespercoolest possible player to hit a ws-winning walkoff?
|
8:57 |
Jeff Sullivan: Bumgarner, extra-innings PH
|
8:57 |
Dave Cameron: Ben Revere.
|
8:57 |
Dave Cameron: Or Tommy Hanson.
|
8:57 |
Jeff Sullivan: I totally missed that he homered a second time
|
8:57 |
Jeff Sullivan: It’s like the first one ruined his stathead appeal
|
8:57 |
Comment From Black JesusWhat happened to Aoki this year??
|
8:57 |
Jeff Sullivan: He was exactly the same?
|
8:58 |
Comment From Larry BernandezIs WRC+ position relative, or is it simply relative to all hitters in the league?
|
8:58 |
Comment From Goblin SeamanSantiago Casilla if you remember the PA where he reached
|
8:58 |
Jeff Sullivan: all hitters
|
8:58 |
Jeff Sullivan: So far Peavy has two swinging strikes, Ventura has one
|
8:58 |
Jeff Sullivan: And Ventura’s velocity, obviously, is back
|
8:59 |
Comment From GuestYou say Aoki isn’t very good. What do you guys define good as? He has a career .287 AVG .353 OBP with a 106 wRC+…that’s not too bad…
|
9:00 |
Jeff Sullivan: “not very good” means “not very good”. it doesn’t mean “not good”
|
9:00 |
Dave Cameron: I hate the “back out of the box” play
|
9:00 |
Comment From Guestwithout seeing even half of MLB catchers I am comfortable stating salvador perez is the WORST pitch framer i’ve ever seen
|
9:00 |
Dave Cameron: Ryan Doumit.
|
9:01 |
Dave Cameron: Eric Hosmer really needs to stop diving into first base.
|
9:01 |
Jeff Sullivan: That’s two of those this month for him
|
9:01 |
Jeff Sullivan: He is going to get stomped on
|
9:02 |
Jeff Sullivan: Very specific Hosmer praise from Verducci
|
9:02 |
Dave Cameron: Announcers love anything that looks like hustle.
|
9:02 |
Comment From GuestAt what point does a hitter become a good candidate for a shift, statistically?
|
9:03 |
Jeff Sullivan: Every hitter, in theory, warrants a unique alignment
|
9:03 |
Comment From BobNow would be a good time for Posey’s first extra base hit these playoffs
|
9:03 |
Dave Cameron: Is there ever a bad time?
|
9:03 |
Dave Cameron: Not bad, just less efficient.
|
9:04 |
Comment From Brett WBad time for XBH = top of 9th, leading by 3 runs, and manager won’t use best RP if you score again
|
9:04 |
Dave Cameron: No reliever is so much worse than the best reliever that it makes scoring another run bad.
|
9:05 |
Comment From Cowboy ButtsexYou clearly haven’t seen enough Carlos Marmol on an off day
|
9:05 |
Comment From RukiNow I’m interested: How big of a difference between theoritical relievers would we need to be worth more than the run?
|
9:06 |
Dave Cameron: A 9.0 RA/9 difference. In other words, you’d need some guy who isn’t good enough to pitch for even a decent college team, versus Craig Kimbrel.
|
9:06 |
Jeff Sullivan: That’s even worse than position players pitching!
|
9:07 |
Comment From Ernie14C’mon you guys. That was a big league play by Hosmer. By diving to the bag he took the risk out of the toss to Ventura. And he slid his hand onto the edge of the bag. No change of getting stomped — unless the runner does it intentionally.
|
9:07 |
Dave Cameron: The decision isn’t “dive or flip”. Just run through.
|
9:07 |
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe he thinks that’s more dangerous
|
9:08 |
Comment From DylanIs there any metric/way to measure 2 out RBIs?
|
9:09 |
Jeff Sullivan: Guy next to Hudson can’t stop spitting
|
9:09 |
Jeff Sullivan: why so much chewing and spitting
|
9:10 |
Jeff Sullivan: who spits?
|
9:10 |
Dave Cameron: Baseball players.
|
9:10 |
Dave Cameron: All the time.
|
9:10 |
Dave Cameron: They’re gross.
|
9:10 |
Jeff Sullivan: But like, why?
|
9:10 |
Jeff Sullivan: Why is that considered appropriate? Everyone is watching!
|
9:10 |
Jeff Sullivan: Filthy people.
|
9:10 |
Dave Cameron: The grossest habit.
|
9:11 |
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t mind if that were banned.
|
9:11 |
Comment From GuestDon’t dip, will never dip. But seeds, preferably ranch, are a must when I play baseball
|
9:11 |
Comment From Dave S.I don’t think he’s dipping either. He’s just spitting like a damned camel.
|
9:12 |
Jeff Sullivan: I value the ability to blow a critical snotrocket, but there’s a time and a place
|
9:12 |
Dave Cameron: Does Rob Lowe look like Uncle Jesse from Full House?
|
9:12 |
Dave Cameron: Or is it just me?
|
9:12 |
Jeff Sullivan: Only from a distance
|
9:12 |
Jeff Sullivan: Uncle Jesse is still much better looking
|
9:13 |
Comment From Skuggsit’s the leather jacket, Dave!
|
9:13 |
Comment From DanDoes anybody enjoy these player interviews during the game?
|
9:13 |
Jeff Sullivan: One of yesterday’s was pretty good
|
9:13 |
Comment From JoeI love in-game player interviews because I need a distraction from this one-run game in the World Series.
|
9:14 |
Dave Cameron: That Taco Bell breakfast thing looked as gross as dip.
|
9:14 |
Jeff Sullivan: Rather eat that or the Wendy’s pulled pork?
|
9:14 |
Dave Cameron: That comment from Joe is plagiarism of a Ben Badler tweet.
|
9:14 |
Comment From GuestTaco Bell flavored dip? Do it!
|
9:14 |
Jeff Sullivan: How are you chatting and on twitter at the same time?
|
9:14 |
Dave Cameron: CIL window not maximized, Tweetdeck behind CIL window, so I can see my stream.
|
9:15 |
Jeff Sullivan: Our brains work very differently
|
9:15 |
Dave Cameron: How many batters don’t get to third there?
|
9:15 |
Jeff Sullivan: In that yours works better
|
9:15 |
Jeff Sullivan: Well we haven’t seen that one very much this month
|
9:15 |
Jeff Sullivan: Suuuuuper difficult play but how many of you figured that was going to be caught anyhow?
|
9:15 |
Dave Cameron: I assume all non-HRs will be caught.
|
9:16 |
Comment From hscerNobody told Joe Buck the Royals have one SB since the ALCS started.
|
9:16 |
Jeff Sullivan: And multiple failures!
|
9:16 |
Comment From JesperI really don’t understand how a professional athlete gets so heavy. Keeping weight down aint exactly rocket science.
|
9:16 |
Dave Cameron: It’s just not really necessary for him, though. He’s a good defender even while he’s fat, and he’ll never be fast.
|
9:17 |
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I mean, Sandoval has been Sandoval while looking like this
|
9:17 |
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll have a lousy older adulthood but for now he maintains
|
9:17 |
Comment From GuestI know productive outs are still outs. but a ground ball to the right side is at least more productive than not moving him right? Way to measure that? is that part of RE24?
|
9:17 |
Dave Cameron: Yes, RE24 gives you credit for that.
|
9:18 |
Dave Cameron: OF defense failures get SF a run.
|
9:18 |
Jeff Sullivan: Another mistake!
|
9:18 |
Jeff Sullivan: Dave’s ahead of me!
|
9:18 |
Comment From hscerWasn’t that an RBI anyway? Yeah, I know Sandoval.
|
9:18 |
Dave Cameron: Yeah, he scores no matter what, but just saying the run scored, basically.
|
9:19 |
Jeff Sullivan: Defense never slumps
|
9:19 |
Dave Cameron: Brandon Crawford made another error before you got here, by the way. They ruled it a hit, but it was an error.
|
9:19 |
Jeff Sullivan: Was listening on radio
|
9:19 |
Jeff Sullivan: I’d moved about 100 feet since hearing that Blanco led off with a dinger
|
9:20 |
Comment From Guestis that true, defense not slumping? has that been tested for individual players? teams?
|
9:20 |
Dave Cameron: He was kidding.
|
9:20 |
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, jokes!
|
9:20 |
Jeff Sullivan: One tough misplay + one regular misplay = tie game
|
9:20 |
Comment From Guestbut then, does defense slump? is defense streaky?
|
9:20 |
Dave Cameron: Yes, there’s no reason to think that defense is immune to random performance fluctuations.
|
9:20 |
Dave Cameron: Players are not robots. Sometimes they’ll get a good jump, sometimes they won’t.
|
9:21 |
Jeff Sullivan: At the very least, the opportunities are streaky and inconsistent
|
9:22 |
Comment From ComptonHow did Michael Morse ever play shortstop?
|
9:22 |
Dave Cameron: Not a good way to make the last out, Brandon.
|
9:23 |
Comment From GuestTOOTBLAN!
|
9:23 |
Jeff Sullivan: That was an inning riddled with mistakes
|
9:23 |
Comment From Black Jesusterrible throw…it looked like he was safe!
|
9:24 |
Comment From Ernie14Saw Morse play shortstop in Tacoma. He was a lot, um, sleeker then.
|
9:24 |
Comment From magic johnsons chequbookAre you peasants really not using (at least) dual monitors?
|
9:24 |
Jeff Sullivan: I want fewer screens in my life, not more
|
9:24 |
Dave Cameron: I saw a year of it when he was in Winston-Salem. It was the worst defensive performance I’ve ever seen.
|
9:24 |
Jeff Sullivan: The days when Dave was a scout
|
9:25 |
Comment From PhilAs someone who saw very little KC baseball this year I expected their OF D to be amazing. Not impressed through 13 innings.
|
9:25 |
Dave Cameron: I don’t have the observational skills to be a scout. I went to a ton of games anyway, though.
|
9:25 |
Jeff Sullivan: Important to understand that elements of the KC game through the earlier bits of the playoffs were executed with almost literal perfection
|
9:25 |
Jeff Sullivan: /enter Humberto Quintero anecdote
|
9:25 |
Dave Cameron: My favorite one.
|
9:26 |
Dave Cameron: How many times have you heard that story?
|
9:26 |
Jeff Sullivan: Thereabouts. I still like it!
|
9:26 |
Jeff Sullivan: It’s like the best anecdote that gets told by your partner
|
9:26 |
Comment From SkoreAnecdote, please!
|
9:27 |
Dave Cameron: Between innings, I will.
|
9:27 |
Dave Cameron: Wind seems to be an issue.
|
9:27 |
Jeff Sullivan: Explains Cain’s play some
|
9:28 |
Comment From GuestHow accurate are 1st/3rd base umpires actually on calling swing/no-swing?
|
9:28 |
Jeff Sullivan: A problem is that there isn’t exactly a defined point at which a non-swing becomes a swing
|
9:28 |
Jeff Sullivan: Whole thing’s subjective
|
9:28 |
Comment From Black JesusThe Royals are going down quickly the last few innings.
|
9:29 |
Comment From hscerHow did Michael Morse ever get the opportunity to play shortstop?
|
9:29 |
Jeff Sullivan: Pablo Sandoval caught
|
9:29 |
Dave Cameron: Another example of “tons of line drives early” not being predictive
|
9:29 |
Comment From doug kas a licensed ump i can tell you the training is if you see the barrel head it is a swing
|
9:29 |
Dave Cameron: Okay, Humberto Quintero story time.
|
9:29 |
Jeff Sullivan: 8:53
Dave Cameron: Jake Peavy is not long for this game.
|
9:31 |
Dave Cameron: Quintero was the W-S catcher, and very good at throwing out runners. Super quick release, strong arm, etc… So I’m at a game watching with a scout friend, and the road team tries like 6 or 7 steals in the first five innings or something. Quintero throws almost all of them out, maybe all of them, I don’t remember exactly. Lots of caught stealings though.
|
9:31 |
Dave Cameron: I ask the scout what the deal is, and why they’re running on him so much. Scout says the manager of the road team just likes watching Quintero throw, so he’s sending everyone to enjoy the show.
|
9:32 |
Comment From hscerLOL. Was it a true story?
|
9:32 |
Dave Cameron: He didn’t say it like a joke, and there was no other explanation for it.
|
9:32 |
Jeff Sullivan: Who are these Fox Sports Live hosts?
|
9:32 |
Jeff Sullivan: Should I know them?
|
9:33 |
Dave Cameron: I don’t know, I was typing up my anecdote.
|
9:33 |
Jeff Sullivan: I was politely chuckling along
|
9:33 |
Comment From GuestQ wasn’t a WS catcher, was he? Back up for the M’s.
|
9:34 |
Dave Cameron: W-S is Winston-Salem, not White Sox. This happened in A-ball, in a day game.
|
9:34 |
Comment From busterAA ball, Dave
|
9:34 |
Dave Cameron: Carolina League is A-ball.
|
9:35 |
Jeff Sullivan: Quintero in the majors: 33% caught steal rate
|
9:35 |
Jeff Sullivan: MInors: 43%. but 20/29 in 2007!
|
9:35 |
Comment From francisMy guess is that the Royals bullpen loses this one. Lose one run via CS, one via shoddy D, and one via bullpen.
|
9:35 |
Comment From hscerFox with the breathtaking, unbelievable story about World Series tickets being expensive.
|
9:36 |
Comment From YoopkaJay and Dan used to do Canadian Sports Centre, they were really popular up here
|
9:36 |
Jeff Sullivan: Are they good?
|
9:37 |
Comment From Black JesusIs the game as fun when you pay 5,000 dollars for a ticket?
|
9:37 |
Jeff Sullivan: Feels a lot more like gambling
|
9:37 |
Dave Cameron: I like how they’re talking about Brandon Finnegan like no one watching this game has ever heard of him.
|
9:37 |
Dave Cameron: We all just skipped the first few rounds of the playoffs, I guess.
|
9:37 |
Jeff Sullivan: Casual baseball fans who tune into the World Series and skip literally everything else I guess
|
9:38 |
Dave Cameron: But why assume that 100% of your audience is casual baseball fans?
|
9:38 |
Jeff Sullivan: I was joking again. It’s weird.
|
9:38 |
Jeff Sullivan: Did FOX cover the Royals’ series before?
|
9:38 |
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe it’s new to *them*.
|
9:38 |
Comment From ErinI’m guessing they assume that people like us are used to zoning out the commentary anyway.
|
9:40 |
Comment From Marsupial JonesI think Joe Buck is getting bored.
|
9:40 |
Dave Cameron: That was not a good announcing inning.
|
9:40 |
Jeff Sullivan: I completely zoned out, like Erin said
|
9:40 |
Jeff Sullivan: Did Harold Reynolds just basically ask people not to change the channel? Who would change the channel?
|
9:41 |
Comment From hscerThey got worse the exact moment we wondered why they were talking about Finnegan.
|
9:41 |
Comment From ComptonI talked to a few people today who didn’t watch a single regular season game, but tuned in last night. Also, the media has to play to the lowest common denominator, that’s just the way it has to be.
|
9:41 |
Comment From JakeAm I the only one who think Joe Buck is really good at his job?
|
9:41 |
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously FOX does
|
9:42 |
Jeff Sullivan: He is pretty good at a difficult job, all things considered
|
9:42 |
Comment From ScotB Finnegan not ready for this stage? A lot to ask of college player?.
|
9:42 |
Jeff Sullivan: He handled his time in the one-game playoff and that was insanely stressful
|
9:42 |
Comment From JaackHarold Reynolds is secretly following this chat and doing everything he can to spite us.
|
9:43 |
Jeff Sullivan: I hope Harold keeps talking!
|
9:43 |
Comment From BDFJeff Sullivan, you hippie. Joe Buck is the *worst*.
|
9:43 |
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not even the worst in his own booth
|
9:43 |
Comment From casual baseball fanSome times when I read pitchfork reviews I have no idea what they are talking about but I still like that fact that smart people are telling me things.
|
9:44 |
Comment From JaackThis should be Peavy’s last inning right?
|
9:46 |
Comment From AaronSo do you think Butler and Moose will be starting for KC next year?
|
9:46 |
Dave Cameron: Moose yes, Butler no.
|
9:46 |
Jeff Sullivan: That was a differently embarrassing strikeout for Escobar
|
9:46 |
Dave Cameron: That’s an easy option to decline.
|
9:46 |
Jeff Sullivan: I could see Butler returning on a cheaper multi-year deal but I don’t know if KC is actually interested in that
|
9:46 |
Jeff Sullivan: If they see past his alleged popularity, they should avoid him
|
9:47 |
Jeff Sullivan: I think at this time yesterday we were in the second inning
|
9:47 |
Dave Cameron: Not quite, but this is moving along pretty briskly.
|
9:47 |
Comment From Guestokay, what’s Peavy doing differently?
|
9:47 |
Dave Cameron: Better location.
|
9:47 |
Jeff Sullivan: And we were in the top of the third like 30 or 35 minutes ago, feels like
|
9:48 |
Comment From ErinJeff, I have to disagree with Joe being good at his job. A play-by-play guy is supposed to tell you what is going on before the play, and show some excitement when something good happens. Joe RARELY tells you some key points: 1. the count 2. men on base. The best he will say is “one out… here’s the pitch”
|
9:48 |
Jeff Sullivan: I think Joe knows he’s broadcasting on TV, not radio
|
9:48 |
Jeff Sullivan: But I don’t have strong feelings about him either way. He’s just fine, and I think his job doesn’t get enough credit for being super hard
|
9:49 |
Dave Cameron: Seriously, that Taco Bell breakfast looks so bad.
|
9:49 |
Jeff Sullivan: I think I’d be pleased of that thing if I created it in my own kitchen but I expect more from real establishments
|
9:49 |
Comment From GuestHow many line drives has Peavy given up?
|
9:49 |
Jeff Sullivan: Been stuck on 5 for a while
|
9:50 |
Dave Cameron: Dyson already in for Aoki.
|
9:50 |
Jeff Sullivan: 4 for Ventura. Both have 5 swinging strikes
|
9:50 |
Comment From Shrewd CatHow much of the ‘times thru the order penalty’ is due to pitcher fatigue?
|
9:50 |
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think we know. Impossible to separate fatigue from familiarity
|
9:51 |
Comment From YoopkaWhere do you guys see Butler ending up?
|
9:51 |
Jeff Sullivan: We both agree, Seattle
|
9:51 |
Comment From JakeShould Dyson just start over Aoki? He wasn’t that much worse offensively and he’s way better defensively
|
9:51 |
Jeff Sullivan: I could see him starting in 2015, but for now Yost probably likes the option of having him available as a pinch-runner
|
9:51 |
Dave Cameron: And Dyson doesn’t catch one. This game is all about screwing with the narratives.
|
9:52 |
Jeff Sullivan: Well I’ll be jiggered, another ball drops in the outfield
|
9:52 |
Jeff Sullivan: So this is what this can look like
|
9:52 |
Comment From Marsupial JonesIs Butler even really an everyday player (even at DH) at this point?
|
9:52 |
Jeff Sullivan: Lower-third DH
|
9:52 |
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe lower-fifteenth
|
9:52 |
Comment From BenPeavy is becoming a better pitcher with age. He throws more strikes, and batters are swinging at more of his offerings outside the zone and fewer inside it. Of course, his fastball velocity is down at least 4 mph from his early years, so there’s no longer the anticipation of a no-hitter whenever he takes the mound. Much has been made of his so-called “improvement” in 2012, but in many ways he was the same pitcher, with similar FRAs and strikeout-to-walk ratios in each season.
|
9:53 |
Dave Cameron: His numbers have gotten much worse over the last few years.
|
9:53 |
Jeff Sullivan: STOP COMPARING PITCHERS TO PEDRO MARTINEZ
|
9:53 |
Dave Cameron: Short, hard-throwing, right-handed, non-white guy? Pedro!
|
9:54 |
Jeff Sullivan: Ramon Ortiz comparison lives forever
|
9:54 |
Dave Cameron: Herrera coming in. Good job, Yost!
|
9:54 |
Jeff Sullivan: Gotta replace Yordano Ventura with basically Yordano Ventura
|
9:54 |
Jeff Sullivan: Great move, though
|
9:55 |
Comment From Jakewhat changed with Yost that he is suddenly proactive?
|
9:55 |
Dave Cameron: My guess is the KC analytics guys got someone to talk to him.
|
9:55 |
Jeff Sullivan: Eiland got in there a month and a half ago
|
9:55 |
Jeff Sullivan: Or so goes the story
|
9:55 |
Jeff Sullivan: Right after the Aaron Crow game
|
9:56 |
Comment From busterrrIt’s not only analytics guys who think that it’s a good idea to use your best players
|
9:58 |
Comment From NicholasHow are you so far ahead?
|
9:58 |
Jeff Sullivan: Now HERE’S a guy whose strikeout rate doesn’t make sense
|
9:58 |
Dave Cameron: Managing Editors get time machines.
|
9:58 |
Comment From BDFMGL puts the fatigue portion of the thru-the-order pentalty at less than 50%.
|
9:58 |
Comment From SkoreVerducci just talked about the times through the order penalty. Credit where it’s due.
|
9:59 |
Jeff Sullivan: I wonder how Herrera’s extension is
|
9:59 |
Dave Cameron: Short-arm guy, so probably not great.
|
10:00 |
Jeff Sullivan: Practically an average contact rate for a reliever. So odd
|
10:00 |
Jeff Sullivan: For the record, 30% of fly balls against Herrera this year were pulled, vs. average of 42%
|
10:01 |
Dave Cameron: Breaking balls generate low contact rates, and he doesn’t have a very good one? That’s my theory.
|
10:01 |
Jeff Sullivan: Yet his strikeouts were up a lot a year ago
|
10:01 |
Jeff Sullivan: Something changed
|
10:01 |
Dave Cameron: 100 mph with tail!
|
10:01 |
Jeff Sullivan: His stuff looks better than his 2014 results, except for, you know, the no dingers
|
10:01 |
Dave Cameron: I don’t even know.
|
10:02 |
Comment From ComptonI’ve never seen a triple-digit two seamer before. Did that exist before a minute ago?
|
10:02 |
Dave Cameron: Daniel Bard, maybe?
|
10:03 |
Jeff Sullivan: PITCHf/x data on that:
|
10:03 |
Comment From JeffThru the order penalty debunks the need to “get to good pitchers early,” correct?
|
10:04 |
Comment From Marsupial JonesWell, getting to good pitchers at any time is probably advisable.
|
10:04 |
Jeff Sullivan: 101.2 mph, -8 pfx, 9 pfz
|
10:05 |
Comment From Jakeis that good? that sounds good
|
10:05 |
Jeff Sullivan: Herrera’s got some fluctuation to his horizontal movement. Not much sink, but he can add and subtract run
|
10:05 |
Jeff Sullivan: Or it’s all an accident. Whatever, he’s a freak
|
10:06 |
Comment From HenryJeff and Dave, what do you guys think of Verducci?
|
10:06 |
Jeff Sullivan: I have completely subjective issues with his voice
|
10:06 |
Jeff Sullivan: I like that he’s been given an opportunity as a non-player
|
10:06 |
Dave Cameron: A little strange that the Giants don’t even have anyone warming up here.
|
10:07 |
Comment From AnonymousDavid Eckstein’s ’02 postseason: 20 hits, all singles, .294/.338/.294. Buster Posey’s postseason: 15 hits, all singles, .294/.339/.294.
|
10:07 |
Jeff Sullivan: Bullpen working, now
|
10:07 |
Jeff Sullivan: Wonder why they waited an at-bat
|
10:08 |
Dave Cameron: Especially with the lefty up second.
|
10:08 |
Dave Cameron: Would think that if you’re going to warm Lopez, want him to face Hosmer and Gordon, not just one of the two.
|
10:08 |
Jeff Sullivan: Imagine being a manager trying to pull Peavy from a decent start around 60-70 pitches
|
10:08 |
Jeff Sullivan: he might literally eat you alive
|
10:09 |
Jeff Sullivan: And this is why a lefty should’ve been warming sooner
|
10:09 |
Dave Cameron: It’s kind of funny that we all thought Peavy would get pulled early and now Bochy stuck with him too long.
|
10:10 |
Jeff Sullivan: So difficult to look past such a low pitch count
|
10:10 |
Jeff Sullivan: There’s a really good pitch
|
10:11 |
Dave Cameron: Fox with the through the order graph!
|
10:11 |
Jeff Sullivan: Reynolds thought the 3-1 pitch was a mistake
|
10:11 |
Jeff Sullivan: It was perfect!
|
10:12 |
Jeff Sullivan: That was less perfect
|
10:12 |
Dave Cameron: So they let Peavy walk the lefty and now pull him with a righty up.
|
10:13 |
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Peavy even made eye contact with Bochy as he approached
|
10:13 |
Dave Cameron: So is Machi a one batter reliever here?
|
10:14 |
Comment From hscerBunt buzz on Twitter
|
10:14 |
Comment From Jakehow many at bats are needed for player vs pitcher performance is statistically significant?
|
10:14 |
Dave Cameron: Butler has 1 career bunt in the bigs.
|
10:14 |
Jeff Sullivan: More than you get. Players change over time before samples accumulate
|
10:15 |
Comment From EvanDoes low pitch count lead to any reduction in TTO penalty due to less familiarity, or are the differences too small to matter?
|
10:15 |
Jeff Sullivan: Interesting question
|
10:15 |
Jeff Sullivan: Probably, though, too small
|
10:15 |
Comment From NickBunt leads to bases loaded for Perez. Yost can’t want that.
|
10:16 |
Dave Cameron: Yeah, you want Gordon to bat.
|
10:16 |
Dave Cameron: A bunt-and-run could be intersting, and maybe Butler bunting makes it hard for Posey to throw.
|
10:16 |
Dave Cameron: Just tell him to pull it back at the end so he doesn’t pop it up.
|
10:17 |
Jeff Sullivan: This is a girthy pitcher/batter matchup
|
10:17 |
Comment From busterrrWhy not petit?
|
10:18 |
Jeff Sullivan: Petit couldn’t warm that fast
|
10:18 |
Comment From JimboYou described a fake bunt, not a bunt and run.
|
10:18 |
Dave Cameron: That works too.
|
10:18 |
Jeff Sullivan: Wow, that was a godawful throw
|
10:18 |
Jeff Sullivan: Was that on purpose?
|
10:18 |
Dave Cameron: Ishikawa can’t throw.
|
10:18 |
Jeff Sullivan: No kidding
|
10:19 |
Dave Cameron: And Machi was a one batter guy.
|
10:19 |
Jeff Sullivan: Never even got to throw his splitter
|
10:20 |
Comment From umungIs Andrew McCutchen a 5 tooler?
|
10:20 |
Comment From chuckbBallgame. That’s what Bochy gets for staying with Peavy too long.
|
10:20 |
Jeff Sullivan: Always remember that both Peavy and Machi also failed to execute
|
10:21 |
Jeff Sullivan: Bochy swung the odds a little. Players swung the odds a lot!
|
10:21 |
Dave Cameron: A little odd to have Gore PR for Butler with a man ahead of him on the bases.
|
10:21 |
Comment From Marsupial JonesLozreno Cain seems to get really good reads on hits. Or is that just me?
|
10:21 |
Jeff Sullivan: Awesome baserunner
|
10:22 |
Comment From TwatmasterGO FOR THE THROAT WITH A BUNT
|
10:23 |
Dave Cameron: Another pitching change!
|
10:23 |
Jeff Sullivan: Slow this game down!
|
10:23 |
Dave Cameron: Remember when this game was going quickly, Jeff?
|
10:24 |
Jeff Sullivan: I wanted to see my Romo/Perez showdown 🙁
|
10:24 |
Jeff Sullivan: Strickland isn’t nearly so equipped to make Perez look like a fool
|
10:24 |
Comment From DrewAt what point would you consider past pitcher/hitter stats to have any predictive meaning? 30/30 with 30 HR? 0-30 w/30 K’s? How many PAs and how extreme of numbers?
|
10:24 |
Jeff Sullivan: Goldschmidt/Lincecum is about as close as I get and it doesn’t even matter because now Lincecum is bad
|
10:25 |
Dave Cameron: I think the most extreme “ownage” any hitter in The Book’s study had was like a .600 wOBA over 40 PAs or something, and it didn’t predict anything.
|
10:25 |
Comment From BobLopez walked way too many guys this year
|
10:25 |
Jeff Sullivan: Not lefties
|
10:26 |
Comment From umungAre there any true 5 toolers in baseball right now?
|
10:26 |
Jeff Sullivan: Puig, Tulo, maybe Carlos Gonzalez, maybe Harper…
|
10:27 |
Comment From hscerhey wait that looks like the mlb statcast. or did we know that?
|
10:27 |
Dave Cameron: Yes, that was Statcast.
|
10:28 |
Comment From HenryHow would you guys react if someone proposed limiting number of pitching changes in a game (or an inning; excluding injuries)?
|
10:28 |
Jeff Sullivan: I’m listening
|
10:28 |
Jeff Sullivan: Well that’s a problem
|
10:28 |
Dave Cameron: You can’t enforce it. Pitchers would just get “injured” a lot more often.
|
10:28 |
Jeff Sullivan: I think I know why Strickland isn’t elite yet
|
10:29 |
Jeff Sullivan: Should’ve been Romo 🙁
|
10:29 |
Dave Cameron: 9 outs, Herrera/Davis/Holland, 3 run lead.
|
10:29 |
Dave Cameron: This isn’t over, but it’s close.
|
10:29 |
Jeff Sullivan: Basically over
|
10:30 |
Jeff Sullivan: When Perez can eliminate the breaking ball, he doesn’t suck
|
10:30 |
Dave Cameron: Now it’s over.
|
10:30 |
Jeff Sullivan: You are way ahead of me
|
10:30 |
Comment From hscerthat got out quick
|
10:31 |
Jeff Sullivan: Some playoffs for Hunter Strickland!
|
10:31 |
Comment From Sabeanand now it’s over
|
10:31 |
Jeff Sullivan: They are just not even the slightest bit worried about his breaking stuff
|
10:31 |
Comment From hscerHe seems a little headcase-y
|
10:31 |
Jeff Sullivan: Strickland maybe not a fan of giving up five dingers in a month
|
10:32 |
Dave Cameron: Pretty sure we don’t see Strickland again this series.
|
10:32 |
Jeff Sullivan: So he’s out, and Lincecum is out
|
10:32 |
Dave Cameron: Lincecum might pitch today, now that this is over.
|
10:32 |
Dave Cameron: And they’ve burned half their pen.
|
10:32 |
Jeff Sullivan: Bryce Harper’s yelling at his massive television as we speak
|
10:33 |
Comment From GuestPosey’s reaction was great. He looked at Strickland and was like dude just chill
|
10:34 |
Comment From Jesperwhat would the pitching equivalent of 5 tools be?
|
10:34 |
Jeff Sullivan: Velocity…fastball command…secondary command…durability…
|
10:35 |
Dave Cameron: Intelligence.
|
10:35 |
Jeff Sullivan: Not a factor in the hitting 5 tools, really
|
10:35 |
Dave Cameron: Lincecum warming up.
|
10:35 |
Dave Cameron: Intelligence more important in pitching than hitting.
|
10:36 |
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like pitchers yelling a lot isn’t new to the game, Harold
|
10:37 |
Comment From alexWith the win probability favoring the Royals to the tune of 98% – you have to just let Lincecum do anything he wants, right? Like underhand the ball to the plate? Save your stamina for game 3? or is that stupid, any odds of winning are worth fighting for?
|
10:37 |
Dave Cameron: You punt this one and let Lincecum pitch until its over.
|
10:38 |
Jeff Sullivan: Thankful for that DP speeding things up. The rest of this game is practically unnecessary
|
10:38 |
Jeff Sullivan: Now we just sit back and watch the beautiful beautiful fastballs
|
10:38 |
Jeff Sullivan: If they even bother using Wade Davis
|
10:39 |
Comment From ChrisSo all the people who said the Royals were done because of last night…they were wrong, yes?
|
10:39 |
Jeff Sullivan: They were wrong yesterday. Who would say that? That’s stupid.
|
10:39 |
Comment From JaackHow awful would it be if the Royals went to the dumpy relievers instead of Wade Davis and lost because of it.
|
10:39 |
Dave Cameron: Zero chance that happens. They haven’t pitched in a week.
|
10:39 |
Dave Cameron: He’d use them just to get them work.
|
10:39 |
Jeff Sullivan: And you can also very quickly go to Davis in the event of emergency!
|
10:40 |
Comment From alexwelp, these were two not-close games
|
10:41 |
Jeff Sullivan: This was close for a while, which is something. Only blew up in the bottom of the sixth
|
10:41 |
Comment From Jesperhow is intelligence not as important in hitting? They’re the 2 sides to the fundamental game
|
10:41 |
Dave Cameron: The pitcher has to decide what to do. The hitter reacts to that decision. One is a planned out thought process, the other a split-second reaction.
|
10:42 |
Dave Cameron: Intelligence isn’t nothing for a hitter, but it’s a bigger part of the pie for a pitcher.
|
10:43 |
Comment From Adamstory told on KC broadcasts this year: Scout goes to see high school Billy Butler. He tells Billy’s dad that he likes his pitchers smart and his hitters dumb. Billy’s dad says “You’ll do great son!”
|
10:44 |
Comment From francisThat Billy Butler story was a Bazooka Joe comic.
|
10:44 |
Dave Cameron: Think I might get Herrera out now.
|
10:45 |
Dave Cameron: ~20 pitches, including some very high leverage ones, with a five run lead.
|
10:45 |
Jeff Sullivan: I’m still amazed he’s able to pitch this month after the discomfort scare
|
10:45 |
Comment From DrewHas Bochy been over-reliant on Strickland? Sure seems like it, he hasn’t been good but seems blinded by the fastball.
|
10:45 |
Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, who expects five dingers? And Strickland was awesome yesterday
|
10:46 |
Dave Cameron: He gave up four HRs in the regular season, minors and majors combined.
|
10:46 |
Comment From guestdo high leverage pitches add to fatigue?
|
10:46 |
Dave Cameron: The pitchers say yes.
|
10:46 |
Jeff Sullivan: Smarter managers always monitor high-leverage pitches vs. regular pitches. Stressful innings are believed to be more taxing
|
10:46 |
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know if it’s true but it sounds fine to me
|
10:47 |
Dave Cameron: The fact that relievers seem to tire after ~20 suggests there’s something to it.
|
10:47 |
Dave Cameron: Yeah, you have to take Herrera out now.
|
10:47 |
Dave Cameron: Sitting 96, shaking his arm.
|
10:48 |
Jeff Sullivan: Arm shaking is never a promising sign
|
10:48 |
Jeff Sullivan: Aaaaaaand sticking with Herrera…
|
10:48 |
Dave Cameron: Finnegan probably isn’t a quick get-ready guy, given his pedigree as a starter.
|
10:49 |
Comment From francisA fan should streak to give the pen some time.
|
10:49 |
Dave Cameron: Davis getting up now too.
|
10:49 |
Dave Cameron: Different guy this inning.
|
10:50 |
Jeff Sullivan: A single there would’ve made this a lot more fun
|
10:50 |
Comment From Rated RookieHas Salvador Perez always been this vulnerable to non-fastballs? Or has this worsened more recently?
|
10:51 |
Jeff Sullivan: almost at 30 pitches
|
10:51 |
Dave Cameron: But not close
|
10:51 |
Jeff Sullivan: “Purpose pitch” Reynolds politely suggests
|
10:52 |
Comment From jocephusyeah thats the ticket
|
10:52 |
Dave Cameron: Be interesting to see how that carries over to Herrera’s usage in games 3-5.
|
10:53 |
Dave Cameron: Off tomorrow, but then three straight days with baseball. Probably can’t use him in all three after this.
|
10:53 |
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not just pitching after his little injury — he’s being used heavily.
|
10:53 |
Dave Cameron: That guy doesn’t sound like he looks.
|
10:53 |
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty fortunate that he’s able to take the mound at all
|
10:53 |
Jeff Sullivan: This has to be a fake voice.
|
10:54 |
Comment From JohnAssuming the Royals hang on to win, are the Giants still favored from this point having 3 home games?
|
10:54 |
Jeff Sullivan: Probably pushes things to about 50/50
|
10:54 |
Comment From GuestAre there any kind of alarm-bell peripheral statistics that would indicate a pitcher who might be prone to an elevated hr/fb ratio?
|
10:54 |
Jeff Sullivan: Sinkerballers
|
10:55 |
Comment From xoloIs Dyson really better than Cain in center?
|
10:55 |
Jeff Sullivan: They seem to be similarly elite, but Cain might be more comfortable in RF
|
10:55 |
Dave Cameron: Dyson’s a little faster, I think.
|
10:56 |
Jeff Sullivan: Cain probably has the better arm
|
10:56 |
Comment From Only PotatoesJeff last night you did the BABIP for winning and loosing pitchers, but we don’t care about pitcher wins….is there a way to find the BABIP of every win vs loss this season? is baseball all luck??
|
10:56 |
Jeff Sullivan: Which makes sense, since hits are good for winning teams
|
10:56 |
Comment From YahtzeeWho is the best defensive CF in baseball?
|
10:57 |
Dave Cameron: Lagares or Bourjos would be my vote.
|
10:57 |
Jeff Sullivan: Lagares is stupid good
|
10:58 |
Jeff Sullivan: In the year 2014, Tim Lincecum is getting mop-up innings in the World Series
|
10:58 |
Comment From enfWould the Royals be Better just starting Dyson in from inning one?
|
10:58 |
Dave Cameron: I think so.
|
10:59 |
Jeff Sullivan: That was a fun play by Crawford
|
10:59 |
Dave Cameron: He got him by a lot, based on the bounce.
|
10:59 |
Jeff Sullivan: Such a quick transfer
|
10:59 |
Jeff Sullivan: Lovely changeup
|
10:59 |
Dave Cameron: Verducci just said the words “high leverage”
|
10:59 |
Dave Cameron: Normal for us, but not for TV guys.
|
11:00 |
Jeff Sullivan: Is that an intuitive word? I feel like that’s not an intuitive word
|
11:00 |
Comment From Yahtzeei’ve heard a lot of guys reference leverage on tv in the past year or so…i think it’s one of the more accepted saber terms
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11:00 |
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like WPA and WPA-like metrics are easy to sell to broadcasters and fans
|
11:01 |
Jeff Sullivan: They’re numbers you can “feel” as you watch
|
11:01 |
Comment From jocephushave you guys been to kauffman? and if so, did you enjoy it?
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11:01 |
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve never left my apartment
|
11:01 |
Dave Cameron: Yeah. And they aren’t really value judgments about players, so they don’t challenge preconceived ideas.
|
11:02 |
Jeff Sullivan: Leverage Index sounds weird and complicated until you get to sense it in a game. Then it’s just the most awesome thing that we have numbers for it
|
11:02 |
Comment From ChrisIt’s literally a quantification of excitement. Based on aLI, we can actually say that Game 1 of the World Series was the least exciting of the entire postseason. That’s cool that something like that has a reliable stat.
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11:03 |
Comment From francisWould you steal off of Timmy ? It’s kind of bad form, but I think you have to.
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11:03 |
Comment From hscerI hear the Nutella part of the nutella and go things are like, only half as tall as the package
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11:03 |
Jeff Sullivan: Every single time
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11:03 |
Jeff Sullivan: The nutella component is indeed disappointly little
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11:03 |
Dave Cameron: I feel like this would be a very easy package to make yourself.
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11:03 |
Jeff Sullivan: Like most things that are convenient for on-the-go people
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11:03 |
Dave Cameron: Just buy a real nutella, scoop some into a regular tupperware, pack with other stuff.
|
11:04 |
Comment From Danielor don’t buy nutella because it’s gross
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11:05 |
Comment From YahtzeeDaniel is out of his mind. Nutella is the nectar of the gods.
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11:05 |
Comment From DanoNutella is just alright.
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11:06 |
Jeff Sullivan: It’s among the best spreadables
|
11:06 |
Jeff Sullivan: I wish I didn’t say that word
|
11:06 |
Dave Cameron: So every time the Royals get a lead, we’re going to get James Shields trade rationalization, aren’t we?
|
11:06 |
Jeff Sullivan: /stops preparing identical poll
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11:06 |
Comment From TrippWhy in the world is Wade Davis pitching tonight?
|
11:07 |
Comment From alexI get the feeling that dave would be unbearably impossible to go to a restaurant with – “well, you could just grow your own rice, go out on your shrimp boat, go to the middle east and pick your own saffron and make your own paella, paying somebody to do it is a total ripoff”
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11:08 |
Dave Cameron: I like going out to eat, and have no problem paying for convenience. I just don’t see that particular product being all that convenient.
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11:08 |
Jeff Sullivan: Dave is constantly giving restaurant recommendations
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11:08 |
Dave Cameron: Speaking of which, I should plug this ice cream I just found last week. Best ice cream I’ve ever had.
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11:08 |
Jeff Sullivan: salt & straw beats it
|
11:09 |
Dave Cameron: It’s called Gelato Fiasco. Based out of Maine. Insanely good.
|
11:09 |
Dave Cameron: I’ve had Salt and Straw. This is better.
|
11:09 |
Dave Cameron: (I’ve had 1 flavor at Salt and Straw, once)
|
11:09 |
Comment From SeanYeah. We don’t get that in Minnesota. Never heard of it.
|
11:09 |
Jeff Sullivan: well you have my attention
|
11:10 |
Dave Cameron: Gelato Fiasco. Check it out. It’s crazy good.
|
11:10 |
Jeff Sullivan: also, one inning left in the baseball game!
|
11:10 |
Dave Cameron: We’ve tried their dark chocolate caramel sea salt and toasted marshmellow smores.
|
11:10 |
Comment From The Big DipperDave have you ever been to the gelato shop by hanes park?
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11:10 |
Dave Cameron: Yeah, the lady who runs it is awesome.
|
11:10 |
Jeff Sullivan: oh sea salt/caramel blends are always unfair
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11:10 |
Dave Cameron: This one’s good because of the chocolate though.
|
11:11 |
Dave Cameron: (This is what you get when two boring games in a row happen)
|
11:11 |
Jeff Sullivan: I might just have to buy some tonight!
|
11:11 |
Jeff Sullivan: At least we had two hours of interesting baseball!
|
11:11 |
Dave Cameron: Warning: It’s not cheap
|
11:11 |
Jeff Sullivan: That’s okay, I make huge money from my employer FanGraphs.com
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11:11 |
Dave Cameron: $7.50 per pint at Fresh Market (east coast Whole Foods type store), $10 per pint shipped.
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11:12 |
Comment From Marsupial JonesPitches better then Wade Davis’ cutter?
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11:12 |
Jeff Sullivan: maybe 5-10 of ’em
|
11:12 |
Comment From guestwhich is more annoying to hear revisited: shields trade or cespedes trade?
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11:12 |
Jeff Sullivan: Shields trade
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11:12 |
Comment From Jerome WaltonWill having at bats against Davis this game help the Giants hitters later in the series?
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11:13 |
Comment From DanoDid any of you guys play the Tony LaRussa Baseball computer games? Is there anything like that now?
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11:13 |
Dave Cameron: I loved those. Played them after we upgraded from Earl Weaver Baseball 2.
|
11:14 |
Comment From GuestIs there a particular skill set that translates from failed starter to amazing reliever?
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11:14 |
Jeff Sullivan: really good primary pitch
|
11:14 |
Dave Cameron: Sinker/slider RH.
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11:15 |
Comment From The Big Dipperwhat happened to lincecum? is it simply a matter of losing his velocity?
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11:15 |
Dave Cameron: He sucks with men on base. No one knows why.
|
11:16 |
Jeff Sullivan: I suspect a surprising part of it is that he’s so easy to steal against
|
11:16 |
Dave Cameron: The batting lines against him go way up too.
|
11:16 |
Jeff Sullivan: didn’t happen that way in 2013
|
11:17 |
Jeff Sullivan: Did, obviously, in 2014!
|
11:18 |
Jeff Sullivan: I remember the article, Dave.
|
11:18 |
Jeff Sullivan: I remember everything you write.
|
11:18 |
Dave Cameron: What did I think of Drew Henson as a prospect?
|
11:18 |
Jeff Sullivan: I say we leave it at mechanical inconsistency!
|
11:19 |
Jeff Sullivan: You hated him
|
11:19 |
Dave Cameron: Nope! I liked him a lot.
|
11:19 |
Dave Cameron: And Lincecum is done.
|
11:19 |
Jeff Sullivan: I was thinking of that other Yankees guy
|
11:19 |
Dave Cameron: Seems like he’s favoring his knee.
|
11:20 |
Dave Cameron: And no, I didn’t like Shelley Duncan, but he was never a great prospect.
|
11:20 |
Jeff Sullivan: No, not him
|
11:20 |
Jeff Sullivan: Eric Duncan
|
11:20 |
Dave Cameron: Oh, yeah, I liked him.
|
11:20 |
Jeff Sullivan: Welp, I’m all backwards
|
11:20 |
Dave Cameron: You know what’s amazing?
|
11:20 |
Dave Cameron: People are still here.
|
11:21 |
Comment From francisKC fans might be seeing their last inning of ball at home this year.
|
11:21 |
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not going to have a three-game SF sweep in either direction
|
11:21 |
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, the Royals lose the DH, but their DH is Billy Butler
|
11:22 |
Comment From AlexHave y’all ever studied pitching biomechanics and stuff like hip-shoulder separation an shoulder external rotation? Data like this would show why Lincecum lost his velocity I think
|
11:22 |
Jeff Sullivan: Safe to say, no, we have never done that.
|
11:23 |
Comment From BryanWell Giants lose their DH Morse to
|
11:23 |
Jeff Sullivan: Does Lincecum get that K?
|
11:23 |
Comment From chuckbA little anti-climactic
|
11:24 |
Comment From jocephusgreg dutch, greg netherland, greg holland
|
11:24 |
Comment From Danielespn has Casilla as getting the K
|
11:25 |
Comment From CatLooking into your crystal ball, what do you see for Strickland’s career?
|
11:25 |
Jeff Sullivan: Decent reliever, surgery
|
11:25 |
Dave Cameron: Every time he gives up a HR in the future, someone will say “here he goes again”
|
11:26 |
Jeff Sullivan: Like Octavio Dotel
|
11:26 |
Comment From MattWhat is the average Runs Allowed for the Royals “Big Three”? If you are behind in the 7th inning, is it worth it to just punt the game and save them for another game?
|
11:26 |
Dave Cameron: Pinch-hitting for Morse. Interesting.
|
11:26 |
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, it depends on the deficit, but true talent they’re probably 2.00 RA-ish
|
11:27 |
Jeff Sullivan: Probably just wants Susac to get some work
|
11:27 |
Dave Cameron: Their chances of winning is like 0%, but I’m surprised to see them admit it like this.
|
11:28 |
Comment From TankAny FG,BR,etc. writers have medical doctorates?
|
11:28 |
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think anyone goes that far so that they can make a lot less money writing about a game
|
11:28 |
Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s the only one I can think of.
|
11:29 |
Jeff Sullivan: Carleton presumably has some kind of masters
|
11:29 |
Dave Cameron: Psychology, though.
|
11:29 |
Comment From HenryAny Ph.D. Fangraphers?
|
11:29 |
Dave Cameron: Dave Allen doesn’t write for us much anymore, but he has one.
|
11:29 |
Dave Cameron: Matt Swartz too.
|
11:30 |
Jeff Sullivan: Swartz writes like it
|
11:30 |
Comment From Marsupial JonesBetter pitch; Davis’ Cutter or Holland’s slider/Splitter thing?
|
11:30 |
Jeff Sullivan: Cutter, serves a broader purpose
|
11:30 |
Comment From JohnHolland throws a slider and splitter
|
11:31 |
Jeff Sullivan: Now I disagree with myself
|
11:31 |
Comment From JonWendy is a “doctor of laws”
|
11:31 |
Comment From GuestCarelton has a Ph.D in Clinical Psychology. I’m surprised a person with a such as degree hasn’t had various job offers for every team. Mental Health is probably a HUGE frontier in baseball….at least from what we know.Sad there is such a stigma
|
11:31 |
Dave Cameron: He worked for the Indians.
|
11:32 |
Dave Cameron: He may have very well decided life outside of baseball is better.
|
11:32 |
Jeff Sullivan: Which is probably the correct opinion
|
11:32 |
Dave Cameron: It’s one I hold.
|
11:33 |
Jeff Sullivan: It’s one I hold now, as opposed to a few years ago
|
11:33 |
Comment From CatLong term, Susac replaces Posey as the everyday catcher with Posey moving to first?
|
11:33 |
Jeff Sullivan: Or third, sooner
|
11:33 |
Dave Cameron: And Greg Holland is still good.
|
11:33 |
Jeff Sullivan: Kansas City won a World Series game
|
11:34 |
Comment From Shrewd CatWhen Mike Morse is in LF does that count as ‘defensive indifference’.
|
11:34 |
Comment From CatIs there life outside of baseball?
|
11:34 |
Jeff Sullivan: You have an offday to find out!
|
11:34 |
Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out again, everyone. Jeff and I will pick up the chats next Tuesday for Game 6, if they get that far. You’ll have a motley crew of fun hosts this weekend.
|
11:35 |
Jeff Sullivan: Thanks everyone! Thanks Dave!
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Tellya what, Rags: all this ‘Bochy’s a genius’ buzz is gettin’ outta hand. Gonna put a stop to it, this game.
– What’s the plan?
Waal, Peavy’s shot all ta hell by now, so rather’n take him out before he gets flayed alive, I’ll just leav’im in there long enough to get the bullpen into a real fix, then go to Strickland.
– Gawd, Boch, that’s just brutal. They already saw him last night, now he’s so full of himself after not giving up more dingers, it’ll be worse than sending a faun into den of ravenous wolves. It’ll look to obvious; you need a diversion.
Whattaya suggest?
– You could maybe send the LOOGY in to get one out, which’ll allow you to open the blood sluices and declare it national holiday for predators.
Good thinkin’, Rags; knew I could count on you. HEY UMP – TIME OUT; GONNA CHANGES PITCHERS.
…
I chuckled, but what the hell did I just read?
It’s a source-confirmed official transcript of an entirely theoretical conversation between Giants’ manager Bruce Bochy and Giants’ pitching coach Dave Righetti, while they observe the Giants’ at bats preceding the last half inning of Jake Peavy’s time on the pitcher’s mound this evening.
No it isn’t.
Oyp. We’re receiving confirmation that there’s an alternative transcript. Here’s a partial transcript – which, before playing it, we preface with a warning about some of the language used and more significantly some of the apparent syntactical allusion. It appears to be a combination of typically boorish alpha-jock b.s. and genuinely unacceptable racist a-holery on the part of Strickland.
Jordan Z – If by “No, it isn’t”, you’re somehow asserting that i am WRONG in asserting that something I myself completely made up AND am prepared to admit I completely made up AND in fact in the very post you’re responding to, the one I admit to being “theoretical”, i.e. to wit etc. made up, a.k.a., with the conversation in it portraying Bruce Bochy and Dave Righetti talking, is not made up or unreal or fictional, but is true, then, I for one am prepared to assure you that a highly attentive readership of at least one is ready, willing and able to read your further post on this subject, wherein, as I gather, you will seek to convince all readers, including me, that I was factually accurate in reporting an actual conversation of those persons.
Please take as much time and space as you feel you need.