Yanks Dunk Duncan

In order to make room for the recent signing of superstar first baseman Mark Teixeira, the New York Yankees organization designated first baseman Shelley Duncan for assignment. Duncan originally burst on to the scene back in 2007 by hitting seven home runs in just 74 at-bats, good for a .297 ISO.

Being a New York ‘prospect,’ Duncan’s value was instantly overstated, especially considering that he was 27 years old and had a career minor league batting average right around .250 in seven seasons. He did have some potential, though, having been a second round draft pick in 2001 out of the University of Arizona. He had also slugged 34 home runs in Double-A in 2005.

At the beginning of spring training in 2008, Yankees manager Joe Girardi was quoted by the New York Daily News as saying Duncan, “will get every chance to win the first base job.” Some New York fans touted Duncan as the next late-blooming star-in-the-making, while others warned of the next Kevin Maas (who set a record as the quickest player to 10 home runs to begin his career: 72 at-bats, but was out of Major League Baseball at the age 30).

The latter group of fans appears to have been correct about Duncan. Although his 2008 season was marred by injuries, it is fairly clear that he is a Quad-A player. After hitting .295/.380/.577 in Triple-A in 2007, Duncan slumped to .239/.365/.483 in 2008. His career MLB line is .221/.299/.435 with rates of 10.3 BB% and 22.8 K% in 131 at-bats.

There is no doubt that Duncan has power; he was one of the best power-hitting players in the NCAA during his college career. But his long swing and questionable plate discipline has haunted him throughout the upper levels of the minors during his pro career.

From here, Duncan would be best off finding a new organization because first base is not going to open up any time soon in New York, with Teixeira having signed an eight-year contract. In fact, he might want to consider joining the growing number of fringe Major Leaguers and Quad-A players jumping over to Japan for the 2009 season.

Unexpected stories and performances, like Duncan’s 2007 MLB season, are part of what makes Major League Baseball so much fun to watch. But it’s important to not get too wrapped up in them when valuing players and their future potentials.