In the comments thread on my post about obscure pitching lines, colleague Dave Cameron pointed out AJ Burnett’s quite memorable no-hitter as evidence of a pitching line very unlikely to ever repeat itself. Burnett gave up no hits in nine innings, but walked nine batters. While his bid ultimately proved unsuccessful, Tom Gorzelanny threw his hat in the ring, name in the sand, or any other phrase suggestive of the Pirates pitcher having a legitimate shot at Burnett-dom last night. Through four innings his line looked like this: 4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 4 K. The Pirates also led 1-0.

He started the fifth inning by inducing a groundout off the bat of Aaron Miles. With one out he walked opposing pitcher Joel Pineiro to give him 5 BB. He followed that up with a walk to Brendan Ryan (6) and a walk to leadoff man Skip Schumaker (7). At this juncture he had gone: 4.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 7 BB, 4 K. Extrapolated over the course of a nine-inning game this would shatter the Burnett line. Things went downhill from there. After an inexperienced Brian Barton swung at the first pitch–I can only imagine what must have been going through LaRussa’s head–he roped a 2-run single to rightfield. Albert Pujols then followed with an RBI single of his own before Gorzelanny “settled down,” retiring Ryan Ludwick and Troy Glaus to end the inning. His end line: 5 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 7 BB, 4 K. Here is a graph of the game:

Though his line began as something along the lines of comical, in approaching Burnett, it ended up just looking bad. Gorzelanny was not squeezed, either, as most of his pitches that missed were nowhere near the realm of causing a batter to chase. 2008 has been very rough on Gorzelanny in the early going as, even before last night’s accuracy debacle, he had given up 15 BB with just 9 K; now he has 22 BB and just 13 K.

According to the gameday and Pitch F/X data, Gorzelanny’s pitch breakdown and accuracy looked like this last night:

• Fastball: 68 total, 29 K, 29 B, 10 BIP
• Changeup: 19 total, 5 K, 12 B, 2 BIP
• Curveball: 6 total, 3 K, 3 B, 0 BIP
• Slider: 1 total, 0 K, 1 B, 0 BIP

He has gone from throwing 11% sliders in 2007 to 5.8% this year, while his curveball has jumped from 11% to 14%. Last night, he could not locate anything and his changeup, a potential out pitch, definitely suffered from being out of the zone. He has increased his groundballs this year from 42% to 50% which has apparently resulted in some luck issues, represented by his FIP being over two full points lower than his ERA.

Looking at release points from last night, Gorzelanny’s fastball was pretty inconsistent, and his changeup, though consistent, was consistently different than the fastball. He’s had to answer questions regarding injuries all month and last night did nothing to ease the minds of those worried. A few more starts will provide us more of a sample size with which to examine but, based on accuracy and release points, it seems his mechanics were out of whack last night.

It’s an old bar argument that we’ve all had – who is the best player in baseball right now? It’s generally been a two horse race for the last couple of years, but we’ve got a new candidate thrusting himself into the discussion:

The best hitter alive is Albert Pujols, and no one really has any chance to claim otherwise. Alex Rodriguez is an inner circle hall of famer, but at 33, he’s a tick behind Prince Albert at the plate and the defensive difference isn’t large enough to close the gap. But now, entering his prime at age 28, Chase Utley is throwing his hat into the ring and demanding to be noticed. He’s absolutely destroying the ball right now, adding tremendous power to a package that already made him the best second baseman in the game.

That kind of offense from a guy who can really play defense at an up-the-middle position is just unbelievably valuable. While most teams are happy to have their second baseman avoid being a black hole at the plate, Utley gives the Phillies a middle of the order star, and that kind of comparative advantage is the main reason that Philadelphia is a playoff contender. Utley may have two teammates with NL MVP awards, but they’re playing in his shadow now.

Whoops – You Aren’t Good, Are You? (Dave Cameron)
– Jon Garland is taking the term “contact pitcher” to new extremes.

A WPA Look at the Houdinis (Eric Seidman)
– Just how valuable is it to get out of that bases-loaded, no-out jam?

Robinzon Diaz… Not Your Typical Catcher (Marc Hulet)
– The Blue Jays have themselves a catcher who can hit.

Extra Base Hit Monsters (Dave Cameron)
– Utley may be #1 in extra bases, but there’s a tight race for #2.

Banking on a Fresh Start (Marc Hulet)
– The Padres might have just picked up another diamond in the ruff.

The San Diego Padres made a seemingly insignificant roster move yesterday. The club claimed right-handed pitcher Josh Banks off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays, after the Jays designated him for assignment when Shawn Camp was added to the roster. Banks is exactly the type of pitcher that can thrive at Petco Park and his stuff is much more suited to A) the National League, and B) a spacious park.

Banks, 25, is a former second round draft pick from the 2003 draft, who was actually a fringe first rounder until blister problems hampered him during his junior season at Florida International University. The track record for success is there. He blew through the lower levels of the minors with his plus control but hit a wall in Double-A at the age of 21.

The numbers tell it all about Banks. In 2005 in Double-A, Banks walked a total of 11 batters in 162.1 innings (that’s a 0.61 BB/9). But the next season in Triple-A, Banks allowed 35 homers in 170.2 innings. From 2005 to 2007 his strikeout totals dipped from 8.04 K/9 to 6.64 K/9 to 5.38 K/9.

Banks doesn’t walk anyone; in fact it seems like he would rather give up a hit – even a home run – than walk someone. Unfortunately, he gives up a lot of homers because he works up in the zone and leaves too many pitchers over the heart of the plate. His control is good, but his command is not as impressive. He throws six or seven pitches, including an 88-92 mph fastball that is a little too straight, a splitter (his out-pitch), slider, curve and change-up.

Banks is likely headed down to Triple-A Portland but keep that name in mind when the Padres organization needs its next Cla Meredith or Heath Bell or Chris Young. A change of scenery may be all that he needed.

There are a few skills that stand out in baseball even in a small sample size. Some guys just have them and others don’t, and even after just a few games, it’s usually pretty easy to tell which category a guy belongs in. Speed is one of the obvious ones, as you’ll never look in a box score and see that a lumbering slugger stole a couple of bags and hit a triple. Power is another one of these traits that’s fairly easy to identify. You can pretty much look at the extra base hit leaderboards on any given day and not be too surprised by the names at the top of the list. In fact, here’s the list of guys currently leading the majors in extra base hits:

Chase Utley – 20 extra base hits. Ridiculous.

Big Gap Here To Illustrate Just How Awesome Utley Has Been

This next group is all tied at 14 apiece.

Manny Ramirez
Derrek Lee
David Wright
Lance Berkman
Mike Jacobs
Nate McLouth
Rafael Furcal

Ramirez, Wright, Berkman – all elite sluggers. Jacobs is a power hitting first baseman, so while he won’t keep up this pace, it still fits. McLouth has shown some offensive promise in the minors, and it’s not a huge shock that he’s driving balls into the gaps. But, I’m sorry, what on earth is Rafael Furcal doing on this list? He’s a 5’9 shortstop with a career slugging percentage of .411, and he didn’t even get close to that last year, posting a wimpy .355 mark with 33 extra base hits the entire season. Now he has 14 extra base hits in three weeks?

Rafael Furcal could probably fit in one of Lance Berkman’s pant legs, but so far, the little guy is muscling up and driving the ball with the big boys. This isn’t going to continue (his career high in extra base hits is 60, back in 2003; he’s on pace for 110), but the Dodgers have to be happy with the production they’re getting out of their shortstop so far.

Robinzon Diaz is not your typical catcher. The Dominican, who was signed as a non-drafted free agent by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2000, came into the 2008 season with a .305 career minor league average in six seasons. But he also had a slugging percentage of .388.

Diaz is similar to Vladimir Guerrero, in the sense that he is a bad-ball hitter that can make contact with just about any pitch. Last season at Double-A, the right-handed batter struck out 16 times in 301 at-bats (but also walked only 11 times). In 1,978 career at-bats, he has walked 98 times and struck out 155 times (which Adam Dunn could only dream of for a single season total).

Diaz has done nothing but hit in the minors, but he has moved slowly through the system due to less-than-impressive defensive skills. Although he is extremely athletic for a catcher, and the organization considered converting him to third or second base, Diaz struggled with game calling and receiving.

The young catcher, who is 24, has improved by leaps and bounds in the last year, though, according to the Jays organization. As such, he was promoted to the majors for the first time in his career when the organization released designated hitter Frank Thomas last week. Diaz was batting .368/.390/.553 at Triple-A. He also ended 2007 at Syracuse and batted .338/.358/.431 in 65 at-bats before an injury caused him to miss a September call-up.

One other interesting knock on Diaz throughout his career is that he tended to take it easy and never really gave his all. People have said that he is a good player, who could be a very good player if he dedicated himself to the game on an everyday basis. As a result, Diaz could end up being a lot like Florida’s Hanley Ramirez, who has posted much better numbers on the center stage that is Major League Baseball, than he ever did in the minors.

Being a magician myself I am very familiar with the work of the legendary Harry Houdini. A masterful illusionist and escape artist, Houdini ruled the magic world from 1899 until his untimely 1926 death. His name continues to live on in magic lore but apparently has found its way into the game of baseball. At Bill James’s website a statistic is kept, titled “Houdinis.” Much more of a list than a stat, persay, it keeps track of every pitcher that finds himself in a bases loaded, no outs situation, and escapes unscathed. In terms of technicalities, the pitcher cannot be charged with a run at all in the inning, regardless of whether or not it scored as a result of the bases being loaded; if I give up a home run, then load the bases and escape the situation, it does not count.

This year, the following pitchers have recorded Houdinis:

• Rafael Betancourt, 3/31, Top 8
• Rich Harden, 4/2, Top 1
• Michael Wuertz, 4/2, Top 7
• Jamie Moyer, 4/3, Top 2
• Tony Pena, 4/5, Bot 8
• Dustin McGowan, 4/9, Top 5
• Jamey Wright, 4/14, Top 8
• Jesse Carlson, 4/16, Top 11
• Franklyn German, 4/21, Bot 6
• Nelson Figueroa, 4/22, Bot 2

Seeing as Fangraphs specializes in win probability data it seemed natural to look at the WPA of each situation. This will enable us to determine which Houdini act was the most magical. There is a potential problem right off the bat, though, in that a pitcher inheriting the bases loaded and escaping without damage will always have a higher WPA; they would not be debited at all for loading the bases. Due to this, Jesse Carlson’s performance of +.479 would completely dwarf everyone else; the other nine pitchers, who began their inning, came in at +.112 or below. We could revert to WPA/LI to get a context-neutral feel but, since Carlson is alone in terms of inheriting the bases loaded it is easier and just as WPA-effective to simply exclude him. Here are the results:

• Betancourt, .112
• McGowan, .072
• Figueroa, .052
• Harden, .049
• Moyer, .017
• Pena, .015
• Wuertz, .013
• Wright, .010
• German, .001

German got in and out of the jam while trailing 8-0 to the Red Sox; they were not very likely to win prior to his efforts and had not really increased their chances regardless of his magical escape act. Betancourt’s WPA leads primarily due to the fact that his Houdini occurred in the 8th inning of a 7-7 game and recorded three outs on a fielder’s choice (out at home) and double play to end the inning. Still, though, Carlson entered the top of the eleventh inning, in a tie game, with the bases loaded, and struck out the side to end the threat. Pretty darned impressive.

Rich Lederer over at Baseball Analysts asked me to write their “DH” guest column for today and I decided to take a look at the ever controversial “Clutch” statistics of starting/relief pitchers using Leverage Index.

You might be surprised who’s been “clutch” and “un-clutch” over the past 6 years, so go check it out!

Over the winter, the Angels decided to acquire Jon Garland to bolster their rotation. In Chicago, Garland’s seasonal performances were something of a model of consistency; 200 IP with a 4.50 or so ERA. The Angels wanted that kind of stability, so they gave up their shortstop, Orlando Cabrera, to get Garland.

Unfortunately for them, they may not have noticed that Garland had taken a step back last year, seeing his stuff lose enough that he began to straddle the line between pitch-to-contact and batting-practice-thrower. As a guy with an average GB%, he just didn’t miss enough bats to sustain any real success, even though the results made him appear potentially useful.

Amazingly enough, Garland’s taken the art of not missing bats to a whole other level so far in 2008. After striking out one batter in six innings last night, Garland has now struck out a whopping four hitters. In 30 innings pitched. That’s an unreal 1.2 K/9 rate. 1.2 strikeouts per nine innings for a major league starting pitcher. Check out the graph:

Carlos Silva has basically set the standard for the minimum possible strikeout rate for a major league pitcher this decade. Garland is making Silva look like Nolan Ryan right now. He is compensating for the ridiculously low strikeout rate by getting more ground balls, but there’s just no precedence for anyone being able to pitch in the majors with a strikeout rate this low for very long. It’s not really working for Garland, either – his 5.04 ERA isn’t much better than his 5.67 FIP.

Garland can’t possibly keep putting the ball in play at this rate, but it looks pretty clear that Garland isn’t going to be the rotation stabilizer that the Angels thought they were getting.

Win Probability: 1974
– Who knew Richie Zisk should have won the 1974 NL MVP?

The Most Underrated Player in Baseball (Dave Cameron)
– Say hello to the next Tony Gwynn (maybe).

BrewCrew Win an Odd One (Eric Seidman)
– Check out Gabe Gross’s last hurrah in Milwaukee.

Snider Movin’ On Up to the East Coast (Marc Hulet)
– Marc begins his week long trek through Blue Jays prospect land.

Snakes Made Of Leather (Dave Cameron)
– Why are those DBacks 15-5?

Welcome to the Club, Smoltz: Who’s Next? (Eric Seidman)
– Maybe it’s Glavine? He could pitch another six years!