I’d imagine that most of you have probably heard of the term “AAAA player”, the characterization given to guys who achieve success in Triple-A but haven’t shown that they can sustain success in the major leagues. These guys put up gaudy numbers in the Pacific Coast and International Leagues, but for various reasons, they get exploited by major leaguers.

Perhaps the best of these Quad-A guys currently is Nelson Cruz, a power hitting outfield in the Rangers organization. Cruz has been destroying Triple-A arms for years, starting with Nashville in 2005, when he hit .269/.382/.490 as a 25-year-old. That wasn’t enough to get him a job in Milwaukee, so he went back to Nashville for 2006 and hit .302/.376/.528 before being traded to Texas in the Carlos Lee deal. The Rangers gave him 138 plate appearances after the trade, but he didn’t impress, putting up a .223/.261/.385 mark that got him sent back to Triple-A for the 2007 season. In response, he went bananas on the PCL, hitting .352/.430/.698 before Texas decided to give him another shot. He failed again, however, posting a .235/.286/.384 mark that was similar to his ’06 time with the Rangers. Between 2006 and 2007, Cruz accumulated 570 underwhelming plate appearances, showing an overly aggressive approach at the plate and an inability to hit breaking balls. These flaws saw him head to Oklahoma again to begin the 2008 season.

They apparently don’t throw breaking balls there, because if you thought he was good down there last year, you haven’t seen anything yet. Through the first 129 trips to the plate this year, Cruz is terrorizing the PCL to the tune of .375/.520/.781. In addition to his prodigious power (he’s leading the PCL in home runs with 11), Cruz has adopted a more selective approach at the plate. His walk rate has nearly doubled and he’s cut his strikeouts down as well, leading to an impressive 27/18 walk to strikeout ratio. By letting pitchers put him on base and waiting for his pitch to drive, he’s gone from a cleanup hitter to a monster. No one in Triple-A is good enough to get him out, and they’re doing well if he doesn’t just end up rounding the bases on his own.

At some point, some organization is going to have to decide that perhaps Nelson Cruz has earned another shot to shake the “AAAA player” label. He’s 27, entering his physical peak, and his power is being wasted on the Pacific Coast League. Clearly, there’s a major league job somewhere for this guy, isn’t there?

Most teams have played about 30 games so far, so through the first baseball month of the season, let’s take a look at the guys who have performed the best at the plate. We’ll do it all-star team style, with one player representing each position. I’m using WPA/LI as the determinant for offensive production.

Catcher: Geovany Soto – 0.64
First Base: Conor Jackson – 1.49
Second Base: Chase Utley – 1.78
Shortstop: Rafael Furcal – 1.33
Third Base: Chipper Jones – 1.49
Left Field: Pat Burrell – 1.77
Center Field: Nate McLouth – 0.91
Right Field: Ryan Church – 0.75
Designated Hitter Hideki Matsui – 0.73

The thing that jumps out to me is that all eight position players represent the National League. Lots of NL hitters going nuts in April, but none more so than Chase Utley, who was clearly the best player on the planet for the first month of the season. Furcal, Chipper, and Burrell had special months as well, especially if you give Burrell credit for the fact that he leads the league in clutch hitting.

Following an Alex Rios lineout and an Aaron Hill strikeout, Mark Buehrle induced a grounder to third off the bat of Scott Rolen that should have ended the inning. A throwing error, ground-rule double, and single up the middle later, Buehrle found himself the victim of two unearned runs. He struck out Lyle Overbay to end the inning but the Blue Jays ultimately had all the run support they would need.

Despite posting a complete game line of 8 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, Buehrle suffered the loss; the committee of Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson, Shawn Camp, and Scott Downs collaborated on a two-hit shutout.

Buehrle threw exactly 100 pitches and 74 of them were strikes. Ironically, ten of those 26 balls came on the first pitch to batters. Here is his pitch breakdown:

• Fastball: 45, 87.8 mph
• Curve: 7, 72.4 mph
• Slider: 27, 83.5 mph
• Changeup: 21, 79.4 mph

Nobody swung and missed at his fastball though his slider proved difficult to make solid contact with; the White Sox fouled off nine of them and flat out missed six. Here are location charts showing where he threw his slider to righties and lefties:

While he tried to stay inside with the slider when facing lefties, he challenged righties in the zone more often with this offspeed pitch.

Facing a total of 29 batters, Buehrle threw a first pitch strike 16 times; ten of the first pitches were balls and another three were put in play. Unlike Matt Cain, who essentially throws a fastball to start every hitter, Buehrle started the White Sox offense with 18 fastballs and 11 breaking balls. With an 0-1 count Buehrle threw just two fastballs out of his 16 total pitches; with a 1-2 count he primarily threw changeups; on a 3-2 count he did not rely on his fastball, throwing two sliders and a changeup out of five pitches. Normally I would show this data in graphical or chart form but, when dealing with just one start, it would suggest patterns and tendencies that just cannot be determined with such a small sample.

Buehrle did not have an easily identifiable “out-pitch” last night as, with two strikes, he threw 13 fastballs, 2 curves, 7 sliders, and 8 changeups.

The aspect of pitch data that fascinates me most right now is sequencing: What does a pitcher throw after a certain pitch? Buehrle threw very few pitches to lefties but, against righties it becomes clear that he successfully mixed up his pitches.

When throwing his changeup to righties he definitely relied on additional offspeed pitches to accompany it rather than mixing speeds by throwing a fastball. In fact, there were six different plate appearances in which Buehrle threw three consecutive offspeed pitches. Never one to waste time on the mound, his quick work and mix of pitches and speeds successfully kept the Blue Jays off balance. Though his overall numbers suffer from an atrocious opening day start, Buehrle will have to pitch like this much more often for the White Sox to avoid the label of “pretender” and be in the race all year.

As David announced earlier this week, fangraphs now has swing data for hitters, giving us a breakdown of who swings at what and how often. This is just another great resource he’s added to the stat pages. And, as always, more data means a chance for more research.

One of the first things I wanted to look at in this data was the effects of swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone. It’s been a sabermetric credo for a while now that good hitters are selective at the plate and don’t chase pitches out of the zone, but players like Vladimir Guerrero, Nomar Garciaparra, Ivan Rodriguez, and Ichiro Suzuki have all had tremendous careers despite swinging at pitches that no sane person would think they could hit. If you can be a hall of fame hitter without being selective, how important is it?

So, I decided to take the list of qualified hitters for 2008 (197 in all) and look at the correlations between their O-Swing%, which measures how often they swing at pitches out of the strike zone, and their BB% and K% rates. Intuitively, I would have thought that the more often a player swings at pitches that would otherwise be called balls, he’d have a lower walk rate and a higher strikeout rate. Here are the results:

O-Swing%/BB% correlation: -0.67
O-Swing%/K% correlation: -0.10

The walk rate correlation matches up with expectations, as there’s a strong negative correlation between swinging at pitches outside the strike zone and walk rate. This, of course, makes sense – the more often you swing at pitches that would have otherwise been called balls, the less likely you are to draw four balls in any given plate appearance. Guys like Matt Diaz eschew the walk through sheer determination.

However, look at the correlation between O-Swing% and K%. I’d have expected a fairly strong positive correlation, as you tend to think of guys flailing at sliders in the dirt as more prone to strikeouts. However, the correlation barely exists at all, and it goes to the negative to the point that there is any correlation. We see this manifest in guys like Erick Aybar and A.J. Pierzynski, who both swing at 37% of pitches outside of the strike zone but strikeout just 7% and 6% respectively.

It appears that players who swing at pitches outside of the zone do so because they can hit them – it is the ability to make contact that creates the aggressive approach, and not just a player’s desire to hack at anything.

The Boston Red Sox organization has had a lot of success with its minor league system lately, thanks to the arrival of players such as Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. Both players had major impacts on Boston’s playoff run last year and they continue to hit well this season. Pedroia is hitting .293/.336/.407, while Ellsbury is currently hitting .280/.396/.440.

Those numbers are not dominating, but both players are solid complementary players – the exact type of players organizations like Boston need to produce. Because Boston is a large market club, it can afford to go out and hit the free agent market to acquire the super stars and major run producers. By producing its own complimentary players, the organization saves money by not having to overpay second-tier free agents, like a Mike Lamb or Mark Loretta, which it can then reinvest in player development.

Jed Lowrie is the most recent call-up who looks like he could have a long-term impact in Boston. He is a little more versatile than Pedroia and Lowrie can fill in at second base, third base and shortstop (although he’s best-suited to second). So far this season, Lowrie is batting .286/.333/.371 and has spent one game at second, three games at shortstop and 10 games at third.

In his career, Lowrie, 24, has hit .291/.386/.448 in 1,072 minor league at-bats. He has also walked almost as much as he’s struck out (165-186). Last season, split between Double-A and Triple-A, Lowrie hit 47 doubles to go along with 13 homers, which suggests there may be more power to come as he matures.

A switch-hitter, Lowrie has done better from the right side in recent years. Last season against southpaws at Triple-A, Lowrie hit .321/.371/.518 compared to .283/.345/.495. At Double-A, he hit .359/.400/.587 compared to .273/.413/.482. That pattern remains true in a very small sample size in 2008 at the major league level.

Other players on the cusp of providing depth in Boston include outfielder Brandon Moss (already on the 25-man roster), catcher George Kottaras and first baseman Chris Carter. The latter two were acquired in trades from other organizations.

Indians lefty Cliff Lee recently put the finishing touches on an absolutely incredible April. Ironically, the 6 IP, 3 ER, 3K performance on Wednesday night—one many pitchers would love to have—was far and away his worst of the month. He will likely garner AL Pitcher of the Month honors, in unanimous fashion, and rightly so: Anyone who posts a legitimate W-L of 5-0, a 0.96 ERA, 16.0 K/BB, and has surrendered just one home run in 37.2 innings truly deserves any and all recognition.

Oh, and Lee also pitched 28 consecutive scoreless innings.

It began in the fifth inning of his April 13th start and lasted all the way until the seventh inning of Wednesday’s start. Despite this, he did not even get halfway towards Orel Hershiser’s oft-underrated and mind-boggling 59 consecutive scoreless innings record. Seeing as Lee’s effort has come to an end I decided to break everything down and analyze what happened in these innings. Hmm… a summary of Cliff’s streak… wait for it… Cliffsnotes:

Overall Streak Line: 28 IP, 10 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 24 K

Of those 28 innings, 18 were perfect (no baserunners) and 4 more saw Lee face the minimum; in each, singles were erased by double plays.

He allowed 11 runners to reach base and only two found themselves at third base. In the fifth inning on April 24th, Jose Guillen doubled and advanced to third on a wild pitch. With two outs, Lee struck Miguel Olivo out to end the threat. In the fifth inning Wednesday night, Wladimir Balantien reached third before Ichiro Suzuki flied out.

The situation with the highest Leverage Index (1.95) occurred when John Buck led off the ninth inning on April 24th; Buck flied out.

He found himself in eight situations with a Leverage Index of 1.60+ and produced the following results: 4 flyouts, 2 groundouts (1 GIDP), and 2 strikeouts.

His WPA over the course of these four games (31 IP) accounted for 1.72 wins; his WPA during this streak (28 IP) accounted for 1.67 wins.

Using TangoTiger’s Marcel projections I classified those with expected slugging percentages of .445+ as power hitters and under that mark as contact. Against Lee, power hitters went: 5-25, 2B, 4 GIDP, 5 K. Contact hitters went: 5-69, BB, 19 K.

The blog Defensive-Indifference does not think Lee will be able to sustain his current pace and I happen to agree. One of the reasons he is unlikely to continue dominating is that his current BABIP of .195 exceeds expectations based on a line drive frequency of 13.7%; with that frequency it should be closer to .257. Additionally, despite posting a 0.96 ERA, his FIP implies it is closer to the 2.01 mark; still great, but not superhuman. Regardless of what happens from May until September, though, Lee had an absolutely phenomenal opening month.

The Reds have seen some flashes of brilliance from 22-year-old Johnny Cueto since handing him a rotation spot coming out of spring training. His debut was nothing short of sensational, giving up just a solo home run over seven innings of brilliance, striking out 10 guys on the way. However, after a couple of starts that weren’t as effective, Cueto is now sporting a 5.40 ERA.

However, his peripherals don’t look like that of a young kid adjusting to life in the majors – 6 walks and 33 strikeouts in 35 innings shows that he’s commanding the strike zone, and even with his home run issues, his FIP stands at just 4.14. So why doesn’t Cueto’s run prevention match his peripherals?

Take a look at his splits.

No One On Base: 98 PA, .170/.204/.351, 4 HR, 4 BB, 28 K
Runners On Base: 45 PA, .421/.442/.711, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 K

That’s a remarkable difference, even in a sample of 143 plate appearances. When he’s pitching from the wind-up, he’s blowing hitters away – 28.5% of the batters he has faced have struck out when no one is on base. Once he starts pitching from the stretch, however, that rate drops to just 9%. The walk and home run rates are similar in both scenarios, so it seems unlikely that his stuff takes a nosedive when pitching out of the stretch (this sounds like a great case for a Pitch f/x analysis), but someone in Cincinnati might want to work with Cueto on his approach to pitching once a guy gets on base.

It’s no secret that Micah Owings is a great hitting pitcher, often causing analysts to refer to him as a hitter that happens to pitch rather than the aforementioned moniker. Reports even circulated prior to the season starting that Owings might get some playing time at first base due to the departure of Tony Clark. Last year, Owings produced one of the best hitting-seasons-for-a-pitcher of all time, thanks to a slash line of .333/.349/.683; he also hit eight doubles, one triple, and four home runs.

In the sixth inning of last night’s Diamondbacks-Astros game, Owings hit a pinch hit, two-run homer to tie the game. The Astros even made a pitching change prior to the at-bat in order to bring in righty Dave Borkowski and Brad Ausmus commented that Owings is the only pitcher over which he has ever discussed sequencing strategies. ESPN had a field day showing highlights and questioning whether or not Owings belongs in the lineup everyday, but the following video segment made me cringe:

They specially selected the ridiculously small sample size of 75 plate appearances in order to further a point that did not necessarily need to be made. Everyone knows he is a tremendous hitter and this comparison did nothing but show a complete ignorance towards the usage of statistics. The hard part about criticizing the video is that the anchors actually used and explained OPS! Granted, OPS is not the end-all, be-all, but for a mainstream show such as Sportscenter to discuss a sabermetric statistic is a pretty big step. Unfortunately, they lost points with the small sample size comparison.

Earlier today on PTI, Michael Wilbon mentioned that putting Owings in the lineup should be done sparingly at first until a large enough sample could be gathered to determine his true ability. Suffice it to say, I was shocked: One ESPN show discussed OPS and another discussed how small sample sizes should not be used to make quick judgments. While discussing sabermetric statistics and explaining how small sample sizes fail to explain anything truly tangible are both important, which do you feel would be best served exploring deeper on mainstream analysis-driven shows?

Over the winter, some big names got new addresses, as we saw one of the more interesting offseasons of trading in recent history. Miguel Cabrera ended up in Detroit, while Johan Santana relocated to New York, and Erik Bedard found his way to Seattle. It’s pretty rare to see that much talent traded in one winter.

However, it’s quite possible that the most valuable asset traded this winter wasn’t involved in any of those deals. In fact, his trade didn’t garner much of a reaction at all, but in retrospect, it was one of the more interesting baseball trades we’ve seen. It was a pure baseball move, with two rebuilding organizations swapping talented pieces, with each preferring the others talented player to their own. A challenge trade for the ages, the Josh Hamilton for Edinson Volquez deal is reaping significant rewards for both clubs.

After launching his first career grand slam last night, Hamilton is now hitting .330/.379/.591, and his 12.84 BRAA ranks him second among American League outfielders through the first month of the season. Hamilton has retained his elite power while shredding some of the strikeouts that kept his average down last year, and that combination of more contact and sustained power has led to Hamilton building off of his already impressive 2007 season. At this point, everyone knows Hamilton’s back story, but it’s his play on the field that is making the human interest side of things an afterthought.

It’s not too often that a franchise can pick up a 26-year-old power hitting lefty outfielder with Hamilton’s ability right as he enters his prime, but that’s what the Rangers were able to do this winter. When you combine his skills and seemingly limitless potential with the fact that he’s years from free agency and not making any money, Hamilton’s one of the most valuable commodities in baseball today. The Rangers couldn’t be happier with how his acquisition has gone so far.

That’s not to say he came for free, of course. In Volquez, Texas gave up one of the better arms in their organization, and he’s moved right into Cincinnati’s rotation and excelled. His stuff remains top shelf, as evidenced by his combination of groundballs (57%) and strikeouts (10.1 K/9), so even with spotty command, he’s still a quality major league starter. Just 24 years old himself, and also years from free agency, the Reds are excited about the returns they’re getting from their newest pitcher.

However, when given a choice whether to build around a star outfielder or a young pitcher, the safe bet is almost always with the hitter. Even with Hamilton’s checkered past, he’s a lower risk proposition than Volquez, and the Rangers have found themselves a guy they can build the rest of their team around. Not a bad little move for Jon Daniels and company.

I love the contradictions in Seattle. General manager Bill Bavasi likes to keep us on our toes as he commits to aging catcher Kenji Johjima, who will be 35 years old when his contract expires. Catchers don’t age overly well and Seattle has a cheaper, younger option available. Bavasi then designated veterans Greg Norton and Brad Wilkerson for assignment. After that, he created a mini re-building process by bringing up the organization’s top two position prospects: catcher/DH Jeff Clement and outfielder Wladimir Balentien.

Good riddance to both Norton and Wilkerson, as both were holding back better, younger, cheaper players. Wilkerson (.232/.348/.304 with no homers in 56 at-bats) was also under-performing.

Although Seattle is under .500, the club has the benefit of playing in the American League West so it is less than five games out of first place. Clement and Balentien should provide some much-needed offence for a club that is middle-of-the-road offensively (seventh out of 14 teams in runs per game at 4.59) in the American League (and the club is not going to pitch its way to a title – despite being fifth in the league in ERA at this point).

But are Clement and Balentien really well-suited for spacious Safeco Field? Both prospects have a lot of their value tied up in power. Clement was doing ridiculously well at Triple-A Tacoma with a line of .397/.535/.692. He also had hit five homers in 78 at-bats and walked 22 times while striking out only 12 times. Can you say dominating?

Clement’s power may take a hit in Seattle but he is proving that he is much more than a one-dimensional slugger. He has shown the ability to hit for average and get on base. Clement, who bats left, is also hitting .391 against southpaws and .400 against right-handers. The difference, though, is in the slugging percentage: .478 against lefties, .782 versus righties. Regardless, he should do very well in Seattle, although I’d like to see him behind the dish more often than we likely will.

Balentien has even more power than Clement but he will not hit for a high average. His line at Triple-A is .254/.329/.619. Balentien also does not walk as much as Clement so there is an awful lot of value tied up in the right-hander’s power. He has hit six homers in 63 Triple-A at-bats this season after slugging 24 in 477 Triple-A games last year (and having three straight 20-plus homer seasons).

He is a proven run producer and has driven in 20 runners in only 17 games and he drove in 84 last season. In the last three seasons, Balentien has struck out 160, 140 and 105 times in roughly 440-490 at-bats. Expect some monster home runs off his bat, but also expect some bumps in the road. Some people have knocked Balentien’s effort and attitude in the past and he might end up being the type of player who performs better under constant scrutiny and when the game is on the line.

Both players had a nice start to their 2008 seasons last night against Cleveland. Balentien went 2-for-4 with a three-run homer off Cliff Lee, who has a 0.96 and had not allowed a homer all season in 37.2 innings. Clement was 1-for-1 coming off the bench.