Archive for May, 2008

Eveland and Smith Paying Dividends

This offseason the Diamondbacks struck gold in winning the Dan Haren sweepstakes. The young, 27-year old ace looked mighty fine when placed right next to Brandon Webb. Billy Beane decided it was time to rebuild and sent Haren to the desert for six prospects: Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Gregory Smith, Aaron Cunningham, and Chris Carter. Many had only heard of Eveland and Gonzalez but, as usual, concluded that the other four must have solid value because they attracted the attention of Beane.

Haren has pitched quite well in the early going, legitimately posting a 4-1 record with an FIP of 3.26. Further west, though, Gregory Smith and Dana Eveland have been flying under the mainstream radar and paying dividends to a surprising Athletics team. Of course the season is still young, but these youngsters deserve some credit.

Smith has pitched at least six innings in four of his five starts, and is yet to surrender more than three earned runs in any of them. He currently sports a 1.06 WHIP and an LOB of 75.5%. His line drive percentage of 17.2% expects a BABIP of around .292, yet it currently sits at .226. Additionally, his ERA of 2.73 translates to a 4.20 FIP. He has not been as steady with the luck-based indicators as Eveland but ranks 9th among AL starters with a 0.73 WPA/LI.

Eveland’s ERA of 3.13 translates to a still quite good 3.46 FIP. Allowing 16.8% line drives we would expect his BABIP to be around the .288 mark; it is currently .291, so he has not been unlucky in that regard. He currently ranks 16th among AL starters with a 0.52 WPA/LI, just slightly ahead of teammates Chad Gaudin and Joe Blanton. Yes, four-fifths of the Athletics rotation ranks in the top twenty. His K/BB of 1.86 is nothing to write home about but he has pitched quite well for a 24-year old with just six major league starts entering the season.

Though Eveland pitched poorly last night. based solely on April performance, this trade has definitely benefited both teams, and the Athletics still have four more prospects yet to scratch the surface.


Don’t Call It A Comeback

Last night, Eric Hinske launched his sixth home run of the young season, matching his 2007 season total before we even get to May of 2008. With a .292/.407/.639 line, Hinske is solidifying a line-up spot for himself in Tampa, at least until he cools off, as Tampa looks to strike gold for the second year in a row. But while his hot start has been one of the main reasons the Rays are racking up wins, don’t anoint him as the next Carlos Pena just yet.

Hinske has done this before. In June of 2002, on his way to the rookie of the year award, he hit .338/.442/.675 with 14 extra base hits and a 15/17 BB/K rate in 95 plate appearances. He followed up that monster performance by hitting .245/.324/.415. In fact, from July 1st through the end of the 2008 season, Hinske hit .267/.348/.427, a fairly pedestrian mark for a guy whose value comes strictly from his performance at the plate. His huge June in 2002 wasn’t indicative of a coming superstar, and odds are that neither is this April.

I don’t say this to downplay the value that Hinske has provided the Rays so far, and as a guy who was picked up for nothing, he’s already more than justified the investment they’ve given him. He’s a classic example of freely available talent that good organizations extract value from in order to allocate more of their resources to their core group of talent. However, we’ve written a lot about interesting 2008 performances in the last few weeks here on fangraphs, and I feel like it was time that we remind everyone that these are still very small samples, and April performances shouldn’t be taken as a harbinger of what the rest of the season holds.

In a small sample size, anything can happen. Even Eric Hinske hitting like an MVP candidate.