With the offense struggling and a need for some power, the Mariners recently turned their right field job over to young slugger Wladimir Balentien. No one has ever questioned Balentien’s raw power, as he can hit a baseball a country mile, but his approach at the plate has been suspect over the years. He’s made a lot of strides, cutting down on his strikeouts and laying off of breaking balls down and away, but he’s still an aggressive, swing-from-the-heels kind of guy.

Since coming to Seattle, he’s hit .212/.255/.486 thanks to an odd line where four his 11 hits have left the yard, but he’s struck out 19 times in 52 at-bats while only drawing three walks. Wily Mo Pena is the personification of this skillset, and while Balentien has a better approach to hitting than WMP, that’s the kind of production he’s giving the Mariners right now. However, Wily Mo isn’t the only low average, low on base, high slugging guy running around.

I ran Baseball Reference’s Play Index to get a list of all players in the last 20 years with at least 300 plate appearances, a batting average of less than .250, and an ISO of greater than .250. This gave me 27 guys who have posted a higher isolated slugging percentage than batting average in a given season, and Balentien looks like he has the potential to join that group. There are some of the usual names on that list that you would guess, such as Mark McGwire, Rob Deer, and Adam Dunn, all of whom are known for being all or nothing hitters. But there are also some guys on the list I wouldn’t have guessed, such as:

1997 Jose Cruz Jr, who .251/.315/.499 in his rookie season with Seattle and Toronto. When you think of big power guys, Cruz Jr doesn’t exactly spring to mind, but he’s actually not a bad comparison for Balentien, although the Mariners are certainly hoping to get more from this young RF than they did from the last one.

2004 Jose Valentin, who put up a .216/.287/.473 line. Not surprisingly, Valentin is the only middle infielder on this list, as the power/strikeout combination isn’t one you generally find playing a premium defensive position.

1996 Willie Greene, who had one of the hilarious lines of all time. 29 extra base hits, with 19 of them being home runs compared to just 5 doubles in 287 at-bats. It’s almost unheard of to get four times as many home runs as doubles in a single season, but Green pulled it off.

Overall, these guys were all productive in the seasons that they posted the ISO higher than their average, as its hard to hit for that much power and not be at least sort of useful, but it’s also not a list of guys who had long, sustained careers. Balentien’s going to want to work on cutting down the strikeouts if he wants to be more than a curiosity on a similar list in 20 years.

To say the San Diego Padres have had a lot of bad luck drafting in the first round this decade would be an understatement. In the eight drafts so far, the club’s No. 1 picks have produced one Major League starter and one Top 10 prospect. The other six have crashed and burned or been derailed by injuries.

In 2000, the club began the decade by using its ninth overall selection to choose Mark Phillips out of a Pennsylvania high school. The hard-throwing lefty had control and command issues that he was unable to overcome. He was eventually shipped out to the New York Yankees, along with Bubba Trammell, in exchange for Rondell White.

2001 came along and saw the club draft infielder Jake Gautreau out of Tulane University with the 14 overall selection. He was unable to sustain his production in the upper levels of the minor leagues and was eventually traded to Cleveland for another disappointing former No. 1 pick in Corey Smith. Neither player has appeared in the majors.

In 2002 the club made its best selection of the decade when it took shortstop Khalil Greene out of Clemson University with the 13th overall pick of the draft. As we all know, Greene has gone on to be a solid, albeit unspectacular, regular at the Major League level (.252/.309/.435 line).

The club’s luck lasted just one year as it chose right-handed starter Tim Stauffer out of the University of Richmond the next season with the fourth overall pick. Stauffer was damaged goods and had a wonky shoulder. The good news is that he fessed up to the club before it handed him an obscene signing bonus. The bad news is that he told them after they wasted the fourth overall pick on him.

The club had the coveted first overall pick in 2004 but went the signability route and avoided some of the more talented (and expensive players) and took a local high school shortstop named Matt Bush. He proved within two years that he could not hit professional pitching so he took his plus-arm strength to the mound. In less than a month, though, he blew out his elbow and is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Tommy John surgery also derailed 2005 first round pick Cesar Carrillo. The right-handed pitcher was taken 18th overall out of the University of Miami. He’s in Extended Spring Training working his way back from the injury.

The Padres organization disappointed some people with its 2006 first round pick. The club chose infielder Matt Antonelli out of Wake Forest University with the 17th overall pick. He was viewed by many as a “safe pick,” or in other words an advanced college hitter with a modest ceiling for development. Antonelli then quieted the complainers with an outstanding 2007 while playing in some very good hitters’ ballparks. He’s struggling at Triple-A this season.

The Padres have to be pretty sick of paying for Tommy John surgeries. Less than a month after beginning his career, the club’s 2007 No. 1 pick, Nick Schmidt, succumbed to the surgery. The 23rd overall selection was viewed as another “safe pick” with a limited ceiling. Those players are supposed to get to the majors quickly, but Schmidt’s time line will be set back one to two years because of the injury.

Yeah, it’s a pretty depressing list when you look at it all together. Maybe 2008 will be better when the club has another shot at the 23rd overall pick. It can’t get much worse.

For a few years running Phillies pitcher Brett Myers has entered the season with the “he could (insert positive breakout pitching feat)” analysis seemingly attached to his hip. Following stellar seasons in 2005 and 2006, he was moved into the closers role last year when Tom Gordon went down with an injury. As a closer he was essentially lights out, though he himself also missed time with an injury. The Brad Lidge acquisition pushed Myers back into his regular role as a starter and, suffice it to say, he has not lived up to expectations so far.

In looking at his numbers I found that he has some pretty significant splits. Below are his overall numbers on the season, followed by his splits against lefty and righty hitters:

Overall: 8 GS, 49.0 IP, 15 BB, 42 K, 5.33 ERA, 5.53 FIP, 1.47 WHIP

LHH: 87 PA, 10 BB, 21 K, .227/.314/.480
RHH: 132 PA, 5 BB, 21 K, .325/.359/.569

Righties have hit him harder and more often. Another area of significance is his Home/Away splits, where he has pitched an equal amount of times:

Home: 4 GS, 2-0, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 27 IP, 6 BB, 25 K
Away: 4 GS, 0-3, 8.18 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, 22 IP, 9 BB, 17 K

Here are his Home/Away splits against batters faced:

Home: 109 PA, 5 HR, .210/.266/.390
Away: 110 PA, 7 HR, .367/.417/.634

Myers is pitching very well at home yet struggling on the road, which defies conventional wisdom in the sense that his home park is arguably the most hitter-friendly in the entire National League. In looking at his starts on the road, though, he has pitched in Arizona, Colorado, and Cincinnati; three stadiums also known for their hitting prowess.

He has also struggled when a runner gets on first base, a problem that in part led to the minor league demotion of Dave Bush:

Nobody On: .269/.320/.538
On First: .367/.387/.767

Batters have performed better against him early in the game than later, as evidenced by the numbers against the first and second times through the batting order:

1st: .329/.373/.557
2nd: .266/.319/.469

Myers recently stated that he attributes his struggles to lost velocity on his fastball. A quick check of the wonderful data here at Fangraphs shows that, in 2005 and 2006, his fastball averaged between 91 and 93 miles per hour; it is currently averaging 89 mph. The decrease in velocity may or may not be a direct cause of his inconsistency this season, but his career splits are nowhere near as drastic in these areas as they are right now; in fact, the times through the order numbers are actually reversed in his career splits as the first time through generally struggles while the second and third time through tends to do better.

Regardless, something is going on that needs fixing, whether it be his selection or sequencing, because whatever he is currently doing has not worked. If this keeps up, he could enter next season as a disappointment rather than a potential breakout candidate.

After last night’s 2-1 win over the Yankees, Tampa Bay has now won six games in a row, stands at 23-16, and are in sole possession of first place on May 14th. It’s been a long, hard road for Rays fans, waiting for the organization to finally figure it out and put a competitive team on the field. They finally have, and it’s paying off, as the Rays continue to show that they’re the most improved team in baseball this year, nothing like the 66-96 team that finished last in the AL East in 2007.

There have been two significant improvements that account for almost the entirety of the Rays improve; the defense and the bullpen. Last year, the Rays were historically terrible defensively, letting balls fall in left and right, but they’re a bit above average so far this year. The defense has made a huge impact on the team’s run prevention, but it’s not the only place Tampa has taken a dramatic step forward. Take a look the bullpen’s performances from the last two years.

2007: 497 IP, 4.52 BB/9, 7.15 K/9, 1.39 HR/9, 6.16 ERA, -8.40 WPA, -106.32 BRAA
2008: 116 IP, 3.72 BB/9, 6.82 K/9, 0.54 HR/9, 3.19 ERA, 2.34 WPA, 23.26 BRAA

Thanks to a huge decrease in home run rate, the Achilles heel of the Rays team last year has been the group that carried this Tampa team to first place in 2008. Adding Troy Percival to the closer role and getting terrific performances from Dan Wheeler and J.P. Howell have given the Rays weapons at the end of games and allowed them to compete in games where the outcome isn’t decided until the 8th or 9th inning.

The young core that get most of the attention in Tampa are an impressive group, but don’t overlook the bullpen – the real reason the Rays are contenders this year.

In order to quell the somewhat heated Tony La Russa and Scott Rolen situation in St. Louis, the Cardinals shipped the disgruntled third baseman to the Blue Jays in exchange for Troy Glaus. The move catalyzed a frenzy of “this should benefit both teams” reactions, primarily due to both players experiencing recent downward trends in success. Rolen has been very injury prone in recent years while some speculate Glaus’s struggles are a direct result of no longer “allegedly” taking steroids. Approximately one-fourth of the way through the season, how is this exchange looking?

Glaus Facts
.230/.357/.357 Slash Line
1 HR, 21 RBI
16.6 BB%, 22.2 K%
.289 BABIP, .284 Career BABIP
18.0/36.0/46.0 LD/GB/FB, 19.2/35.6/45.2 Career LD/GB/FB
-3.21 BRAA, -0.32 REW
-0.50 WPA, 5.12 Games Advanced

Glaus’s SLG has struggled in the early going primarily due to hitting just one home run. His BABIP and BIP rates are all very similar to his career rates. Despite this, he clearly is not producing at his standard level. His struggles have cost the Cardinals about 1/3 of a game via Run Expectancy and 1/2 of a game via Win Probability. Games Advanced can be found by +WPA minus -WPA, and shows how many games a players efforts have effected; whether positive or negative, Glaus has had an effect on five of the Cardinals games.

His swing data shows an increase above his career rates in swings both inside and outside of the strike zone. His contact rate in the zone is four percent higher than his career averages while his contact rate outside of the zone is about five percent less. Overall, though, he is making more contact in the early going… he just must not be doing much with that contact.

Rolen Facts
In just 65 PA through 16 GP
.316/.385/.561 Slash Line
9.5 BB%, 12.3 K%
.333 BABIP, .314 Career BABIP
27.5/29.4/43.1 LD/GB/FB, 21.8/33.7/44.6 Career LD/GB/FB
1.45 BRAA, 0.14 REW
0.17 WPA, 2.81 Games Advanced

The first area that jumps out is his high line drive rate. Rolen may end up in future conversations about very high LD% but it is more likely he will regress closer to the 21-23% range. He seems to be swinging less at pitches in the zone while making more contact with those pitches, relative to his career totals. He has also maintained his career swing rate at pitches out of the zone while increasing his contact by seven percent.

Overall
It’s too early to discuss anything significant with regards to Rolen’s numbers but Glaus simply has not done too well in the first quarter of the season. Rolen, as Dave mentioned earlier tonight, has been one of just two players with positive BRAAs on the anemic Blue Jays offense, and he has only played in 16 games. If the season were to end today, for whatever reason, this trade would appear to be in the Blue Jays favor. In another month, who knows?

If Rolen continues to get hurt, and Glaus doesn’t improve, this won’t be a trade that benefits both teams but rather one that provides equal and mediocre production to the Cardinals and Blue Jays.

The Toronto Blue Jays aren’t a very good offensive team. As a group, they’re a combined -50.02 BRAA and -5.93 WPA, worst in the majors in both categories. Worse than even Kansas City and San Francisco, and it’s hard to imagine a team being less effective scoring runs than the 2008 Giants. However, the Jays have managed to pull it off so far, raising offensive futility to an art form.

They have a grand total of three hitters who have produced positive Batting Runs Above Average numbers – Scott Rolen, Frank Thomas, and Aaron Hill. Thomas, of course, was released and is no longer with the team. Rolen has 57 at-bats and has missed most of the year with injuries. So, on any given day, nearly the entire offense is composed of below average hitters. That’s hard to do.

The main problems appear to be a complete lack of power, mainly thanks to subpar performances from Alex Rios and Vernon Wells, as well as a line-up that is just too right-handed. The only lefties getting regular playing time are Lyle Overbay, Matt Stairs, and Gregg Zaun, with Brad Wilkerson potentially getting worked into the mix. With a line-up that leans heavily to the right hand side of the plate, the Jays are an easy matchup for right-handed starters, and even those who don’t have a real weapon against left handed batters can get through Toronto’s line-up by just pitching around the occasional lefty.

The Jays have tried shuffling things up, but they just don’t have the personnel in the organization to put together an offense that can score a lot of runs. This is a team that absolutely has to get production from Wells and Rios, and they just aren’t. With those two struggling, we see things like the last four days, where the Jays scored one run in 36 innings before busting out for a big three spot in the 10th inning of last night’s second game against Cleveland.

Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, A.J. Burnett, and Shaun Marcum give Toronto one of the best starting rotations in baseball, but even they can’t overcome the struggling Jays offense. If Toronto really wants to win this year, they’re going to have to find some new hitters, because this group just isn’t getting it done.

In light of Justin Verlander’s struggles I am going to skip my normal opening paragraph designed to introduce the topic at hand and just plain pose the question – What is going on with the Tigers ace?

Last year, he went 18-6 with a 3.99 FIP, a WHIP of 1.23, and 183 strikeouts in 201.2 innings. This year, his WHIP currently sits at 1.46; his FIP has jumped to 5.37; and he has already matched his total losses from last year at six. Here are his stats in a form easier to compare:

2007: 18-6, 201.2 IP, 181 H, 82 ER, 67 BB, 183 K
2008: 1-6, 49.0 IP, 51 H, 35 ER, 21 BB, 30 K

2007: 3.66 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.23 WHIP
2008: 6.43 ERA, 5.37 FIP, 1.46 WHIP

In eight starts Verlander has allowed less than 4 earned runs just once! His BABIP against has not changed much, going from .294 last year to .289 to date. Does this match what we would expect?

2007: 19.1 LD%, .311 xBABIP, .294 BABIP
2008: 13.4 LD%, .254 xBABIP, .289 BABIP

Okay, well there’s a possible explanation. He is allowing just about six percent less line drives, splitting the difference between grounders and flyballs, so he has been unlucky, but is his performance really only driven by a lack of luck?

Looking at his percentage of runners left on base, it has plummeted from 74.9% last year to 56.4 right now. He is stranding over 18% less runners in the early going than he did last year.

The jump in his WHIP can be attributed to a decrease in his K/9, increase in his BB/9, and decrease in his K/BB:

2007: 8.17 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, 2.73 K/BB
2008: 5.51 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 1.46 K/BB

He isn’t striking out nearly as many batters and is walking more; this is not a formula for success. Why isn’t he striking as many batters out?

Looking at his pitch selection and velocity, he is throwing essentially the same percentage of fastballs, curveballs, and changeups.

2007: 62.3% FA, 18.9% CB, 18.8% CH
2008: 62.5% FA, 19.6% CB, 17.9% CH

Looking at velocity we can see a discrepancy. While his curveball and changeup have maintained their velocity from a year ago, his fastball has significantly decreased.

2007: Fastball, 62.3%, 94.8 mph
2008: Fastball, 62.5%, 93.0 mph

He currently has the ninth lowest WPA amongst starting pitchers, at -0.72, but his WPA/LI comes in lower at -0.38. This tells me that his results regardless of the situation are better than what his results due to the situation suggest. He is the one putting himself in these situations, though, with his increase in baserunners allowed.

From first glance it appears that, if his decrease in velocity is truly the reason for the lack of strikeouts, than that would be a big, big problem. When he experienced success in 2006 and 2007 he threw 94+ mph, limited his baserunners, stranded a high percentage of those that reached base, and struck out a good amount relative to his walks surrendered.

This year, none of that is happening relative to the last two seasons. Sure he is a bit unlucky in his BABIP, especially since he is allowing a very low rate of 13% line drives, but if I am on the Tigers staff I am going to be more concerned with Verlander regaining the controllable skills that made him a dominant AL pitcher than chalking everything up as some bad luck.

A couple of weeks ago, I authored a post where I explained why Cliff Lee couldn’t continue pitching as well as he had in his first three starts of the season, when he’d allowed two runs and ran a 2/20 BB/K ratio. I was right; in the four starts since, he hasn’t pitched as well – he’s pitched better, walking two men and striking out 24 guys over his last 30 innings of brilliant work.

He didn’t get the win last night, but he tossed another nine inning shutout, and has now thrown 53 2/3 innings and given up five runs. He’s blanked the opponents in four of his seven starts. He’s only allowed 36 baserunners, and he’s left 31 men on base. We could go on and on, because the numbers don’t get any less ridiculous.

Here’s a comparison that might put this into perspective.

Cliff Lee, first seven starts of 2008: 53 2/3 IP, 32 H, 4 BB, 44 K
Orel Hershiser, last six starts of 1988: 55 IP, 30 H, 9 BB, 34 K

You may have heard about that particular stretch of pitching, as Hershiser set the major league record for consecutive scoreless innings during that run. Cliff Lee is pitching at that level right now.

It’s not going to last – that much is obvious, because no one is this good. But while it does, let’s tip our caps to the guy who has put together one of the great pitching stretches in the history of baseball.

While most of the attention directed towards second basemen is deservedly paid to Chase Utley, another NL East player of the same position, who also happens to have a five-lettered last name beginning with “U” has been posting some pretty solid numbers of his own. Clearly, the title of this post indicates I am speaking about Dan Uggla, who has helped the Marlins to a 23-14 record; believe it or not… that is the highest winning percentage in baseball. Yes, folks, the Marlins, as of right now, are “the best team in baseball.”

Uggla has posted some pretty drastic splits in his numbers this year but let’s first examine everything on the whole:

2006: .282/.339/.480, 112 OPS+, 27 HR, 33 2B-3B, 154 GP
2007: .245/.326/.479, 108 OPS+, 31 HR, 52 2B-3B, 159 GP
2008: .279/.359/.618, 155 OPS+, 11 HR, 12 2B-3B, 36 GP

Taking batting average out of the equation, Uggla essentially performed the same last year as in his rookie season. Many thought he fell into the sophomore slump due to his .245 BA and big jump in strikeouts (123 to 167), but his OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, HR and RBI all remained relatively similar. Additionally, his BABIP was a tad lucky in 2006 whereas it was right on par last year. This year, however, everything has jumped and were he to keep pace, he would finish the season with close to 50 home runs. This is not very likely to happen, though, so instead of focusing on what he could do this year, let’s look at what is contributing to these numbers, starting with his splits vs. pitchers:

vs. RHP: .307/.383/.733, 11 HR, 24 RBI (115 PA)
vs. LHP: .200/.293/.286, 0 HR, 3 RBI (41 PA)

Here are his home/road splits:

Home: .213/.306/.533, .839 OPS, 6 HR, 12 RBI (85 PA)
Away: .361/.423/.721, 1.142 OPS, 5 HR, 15 RBI (71 PA)

And here are splits between April and May:

April: 26 GP, .255/.330/.471, .801 OPS, .306 BABIP, 4 HR, 12 RBI
May: 10 GP, .353/.439/1.059, 1.498 OPS, .313 BABIP, 7 HR, 15 RBI

He has homered in seven of his ten games this month and has an absolutely ridiculous SLG and OPS. Additionally, looking at his career splits, May has always been his best month. In May, over the last three years, he has an OPS of 1.026; next closest is June’s .903.

To sum everything up, this year Uggla likes facing righties and hitting on the road, and in his career, REALLY likes this month.

Oliver Perez has always been something of an enigma. A power throwing southpaw who got to the majors with San Diego at a young age and had some early success, he was sent to Pittsburgh along with Jason Bay in the ill fated Brian Giles deal and turned in an amazing 2004 season, striking out 239 batters in 198 innings on his way to posting a 2.98 ERA at age 22. At that point, he looked like one of the best young hurlers in baseball.

The wheels came off the bus quickly, though, as he lost his command of the strike zone and dealt with mechanical issues. In just a year and a half, he went from Pittsburgh ace to New York reclamation project, as the Mets picked him up and hoped to get his career back on track. It worked, too, as he threw 177 quality innings last year and helped add some firepower to the Mets rotation. However, while he has become an asset on the mound, you never really know what you’re going to get from Perez on any given day. Here are his starts from 2007 and 2008, broken down into groupings of Game Scores (where 50 represents an average start, 40 or less is lousy, and 60 or more is quite good).

20-29: 3
30-39: 7
40-49: 4
50-59: 8
60-69: 10
70:79: 5

While Perez’s personal average game score in 2007 and 2008 is 52.8, he’s been disastrously bad in 10 those 37 starts. In three of his first four starts this year, he didn’t give up a single run. In the other start, he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings. Perez is both occasionally great and occasionally awful. The end result is a pretty decent pitcher, but certainly not one you want to bet on.