In order to cope with the loss of two starting pitchers from last year’s club, the Twins imported veteran starter Livan Hernandez to fill innings at a reasonable clip. At this point in his career, though, it was clear that Hernandez wasn’t going to be much more than a pitch to contact innings eater. Well, he’s lived up to that persona and then some.

A guy who posted average strikeout rates in his prime is now transitioning into the second stage of his career as the new Nate Cornejo. His K/9 this year stands at a paltry 2.83, second lowest in baseball among starting pitchers. Only Jon Garland, who we discussed previously, is missing bats with less frequency than Livan Hernandez. In fact, both Garland and Hernandez are posting remarkably low strikeout rates compared to recent history.

Since 1988, only 17 pitchers have tossed 100 or more innings in a season with a K/9 of 3.00 or less, combining to make it happen 22 times. Kirk Rueter was the last to do it, pitching himself out of baseball in 2005 with a 2.10 K/9. The previously mentioned Cornejo did it in 2003, but only lasted 25 innings into the 2004 season before seeing his career end as well. Clearly, this isn’t a list of guys who went on to have long, productive careers after watching their ability to rack up the strikeouts all but disappear.

However, Hernandez has managed to succeed despite the strikeout rate by dramatically cutting down on his walks and keeping the ball in the yard. In all, he’s actually posting a not horrible 4.46 FIP, and while he probably won’t be able to keep his home run rate this low, that he’s not walking anyone should give the Twins hope that he can squeeze together a few more months of useful pitching. Hernandez isn’t a guy you want in your rotation long term, but given the choice between paying Carlos Silva $48 million over four years or paying Hernandez $5 million for one year, it seems pretty clear that Minnesota made the right choice.

For the next two weeks, in honor of the upcoming MLB Amateur Draft on June 5-6, I will be devoting my posts to a review of the 2007 draft. Last week I looked at the National League’s first three rounds (plus the supplemental first round). Today, let’s take a look at how some of the key American League first round picks are faring in their first full season in professional baseball.

First overall pick David Price (Tampa Bay) was slowed by an injury early this season and made his first appearance recently and pitched well: In five innings at High-A ball, the southpaw allowed no earned runs on three hits and one walk. He also struck out four. Not bad for a guy coming off a significant layoff. Price then out-dueled future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez, who was making a rehab start. Price may not be long for the Florida State League.

Third baseman Mike Moustakas (Kansas City) is currently at A-ball and is hitting .239/.290/.400 with seven homers in 205 at-bats. He has walked 5.4 percent of the time and struck out at a rate of 16.6 percent. Moustakas has hit .220 in the last 10 games but he slammed three homers.

Catcher Matt Wieters (Baltimore) was the player most Pirates fans were hoping for, and for good reason. So far this season in High-A ball he is tearing the cover off the ball with a line of .337/.432/.590 and 12 homers in 166 at-bats. He has walked 14.1 percent of the time and struck out 18.9 percent. Wieters is the top catching prospect playing in the minors right now.

Phillippe Aumont (Seattle) was considered a very raw Canadian prep right-hander but his talent was undeniable. He has been better than advertised so far this season in A-ball. He has a 1.50 ERA in 36 innings and has allowed 23 hits and 11 walks to go along with 35 strikeouts. At the rate Seattle promotes its prospects, Aumont should be on the move any day now.

Beau Mills (Cleveland) wowed scouts with his raw power in his final year of college, but he was also playing against lesser talents in the NAIA (as opposed to NCAA Division 1 baseball). He has struggled somewhat in professional baseball and is hitting .255/.361/.422 with five home runs in 204 at-bats at High-A ball. He has walked 13.9 percent of the time and struck out at a rate of 20.3 percent.

Kevin Ahrens (Toronto) has made a smooth transition from high school shortstop to pro third baseman and is holding his own in A-ball. He is currently hitting .266/.341/.399 with one homer in 188 at-bats. He has walked 10.6 percent of the time and struck out at a rate of 24.9 percent. He also has 14 doubles and four triples.

J.P. Arencibia, the second of Toronto’s two first round picks, struggled in his junior year of college due to injuries but the catcher is right back on track in 2008. He has a line of .319/.344/.560 with 10 homers and 20 doubles in 207 at-bats. He has walked only 3.5 percent of the time, which could become an issue, and has struck out at a rate of 19.0 percent. His defence has also significantly improved and may be the second best catching prospect in minor league ball right now.

Texas has been cautious with Blake Beavan and he has responded with a 2.84 ERA in 38 innings. He has allowed 32 hits, along with only two walks and 16 strikeouts. Beavan has, though, allowed six home runs in a league where homers don’t come easily.

High school pitcher Rick Porcello (Detroit) slid to the Tigers due to signability concerns. The organization got a gem as a result. The right-hander skipped A-ball and is pitching at High-A ball. So far this season he has an ERA of 2.87 and has allowed 61 hits in 62 innings. He has rates of 5.43 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9 as a 19-year-old. Porcello was roughed up in his last outing but it was the fourth time that he had faced Dunedin in just over a month.

Aaron Poreda (Chicago) is a hard-throwing lefty who has held his own in High-A ball in 2008. He has a 3.08 ERA in 61.1 innings and has allowed 57 hits. He has posted rates of 6.02 K/9 and 2.35 BB/9.

James Simmons (Oakland) was considered an advanced college pitcher with a modest ceiling and that has held true so far in his pro career. He was immediately assigned to Double-A in his 2007 debut and he continued there in 2008 before hitting the disabled list. Currently, he has an ERA of 2.98 in 40 innings. He has allowed 37 hits and eight walks. Simmons has struck out 31.

Ben Revere (Minnesota) was considered an overdraft out of high school. He quieted some of those concerns, though, with a solid debut in which he hit .325 in Rookie Ball. Revere is again out to prove people wrong in 2008 as he is currently hitting .422/.462/.600 in 135 A-ball at-bats. The left-handed batter is also hitting .538 against southpaws. He has walked 10 times and struck out 10 times.

The New York Yankees selected 6-10 right-hander Andrew Brackman even though the organization knew he would need Tommy John surgery. He is expected to miss all of the 2008 season while recovering and should pitch again near the beginning of the 2009 season.

I can remember May 22, 2002 like it was six years ago yesterday as I did not even need to look up gamelogs to remember the very first major league start of Mark Prior. A high school sophomore at the time, I would often use my lunch period to watch day games on either Gameday or MLB TV; on that day I was lucky enough to watch Prior make his Mark. Get it?

Breezing through the Pirates hitters with the greatest of ease, this would begin a five-game stretch in which the Cubs rookie struck out 43 hitters in 28.2 innings. Calm, cool, and collected, his fluid windup provided such an intimidating presence on the mound. On the whole, his rookie season consisted of 147 strikeouts in 116.2 innings; just 38 walks; a 3.32 ERA, 3.16 FIP, and a 1.17 WHIP; and a .230 BAA. He finished seventh in Rookie of the Year voting but, in just 19 starts, had risen almost entirely to the top of the Cubs rotation.

If there were any doubts his 2003 not only erased them but helped make people forget said doubts ever crept into their minds. Finishing 3rd (to Eric Gagne and Jason Schmidt) in Cy Young Award voting, Prior went 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA. His WHIP went down to 1.10 and he struck out 245 hitters in 211.1 innings. His FIP of 2.47 suggests his ERA was right on the money and he allowed just 15 home runs.

Prior pitched game six of the NLCS where some guy in the crowd prevented a ball caught in foul territory that Moises Alou forgave six years later (Question: Why isn’t Alex Gonzalez criticized more? His play was worse!).

The next season, an injury-riddled one, looked a lot like a slightly poorer version of his rookie year. Check it out:

2002:19 GS, 116.2 IP, 98 H, 14 HR, 38 BB, 147 K, 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
2004:21 GS, 118.2 IP, 108 H, 14 HR, 48 BB, 139 K, 4.02 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

In 2005 he missed more time, albeit not as much as the year prior (get it?), and pitched pretty well; though not as well as someone determined to be the next 300-game winner would be expected to pitch. That year he struck out 188 batters in 166.2 innings, posting a 3.67 ERA, 3.85 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP.

Missing most of the next season his actual playing time in 2006 proved disastrous. In nine starts he posted a 7.21 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP. His FIP of 6.60, which suggests his ERA may have been a bit high, was still high in its own right. 2006 would also be the first season in which Prior struck out less batters than innings pitched and posted a BB/9 above 3.64. After stranding runners to the tune of 76.7%-79.4% he posted an LOB of just 62.0%.

He missed last season with more injuries and the Cubs decided to let him go. Signing a low-risk deal with the Padres this offseason, hope still existed that Prior could shake the injury-plagued status that accompanies him everywhere these days and be, at the very least, a league average pitcher. This weekend’s news changed everything.

News surfaced this weekend that Prior, still just 27 years of age, would have surgery and miss the entire 2008 season. Often the player associated most with regards to Dusty Baker’s poor handling of pitchers, Prior will again miss significant pitching time due to a faulty shoulder. As Sam Panayotovich points out, it’s a shame because Prior had the abilities to dominate the league at the age of 23; now he’ll be lucky to make 20+ starts in a future season.

When Prior returned from the DL in 2004, Cubs announcers remarked that fans now felt their season had begun with their ace making his return. As my friend Evan Brunell remarked yesterday, “Now you know the season has really begun when ‘Mark Prior out for the season’ hits the newswire.”

Oh, how the tides have turned, and oh how sad of a downfall it has been.

Couple quick updates to the stats pages. Each section now has a header and each section is now linkable. So if you’d like to send someone to the Plate Discipline stats or the Pitch Type stats, you no longer need to tell them to scroll to the bottom of the page. Just click on the header you’d like to link to get get the appropriate link.

And if things look a little weird, just reload the page by hitting F5 or the reload button on your browser.

Riding the coattails of an absolutely scorching start from shortstop Rafael Furcal, the Dodgers found themselves with a 19-14 record on May 13th, their best record so far this season. Furcal got hurt, landed on the DL, and the Dodgers have gone a paltry 8-14 in his absence. Though impossible to say with 100% confidence that their success rests in the hands/bat/glove (depending on the metaphor) of their shortstop he clearly seems to be missed from that lineup.

More of their struggles can be attributed to the starting rotation. Take a look at these SP/RP splits:

Starters: 13-23, 4.43 ERA, 307 IP, 113 BB, 217 K, 1.48 WHIP
Relievers: 14-5, 3.08 ERA,178.1 IP, 67 BB, 161 K, 1.28 WHIP

Need some more? How about these:

Starters: -1.22 WPA, -5.95 BRAA, 1.92 K/BB
Relievers: 1.55 WPA, 24.12 BRAA, 2.40 K/BB

Derek Lowe and Brad Penny have underperformed thus far and the good starts from Chad Billingsley and rookie Hiroki Kuroda have not been able to cancel them out.

Interestingly enough, one of their top guns out of the bullpen this year has been Chan Ho Park. Yes, that Chan Ho Park, the one who elicits “he’s still around??” reactions. Other than Hong-Chih Kuo, Park has the highest BRAA of the entire pitching staff.

In 16 games, including one start, Park is 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA; however, his 5.14 FIP suggests he has been very lucky. In fact, just JC Romero of the Phillies has a bigger ERA-FIP differential in the league. He has surrendered 32 hits in 33.2 innings, both walking and striking out 16 batters. Despite just a .252 BAA and .262 BABIP, the walks have helped lead to a 1.43 WHIP. It does not seem to matter how many runners Park lets reach base, though, because he currently has an 89.9% LOB. Excluding his one start that numbers jumps up to 93.6%, placing him sixth in the National League amongst relievers with at least 20.0 IP.

Park is throwing harder as well. Comparing 2005-2006 to 2008—he only made one start in 2007—his fastball is up over two mph; his slider is up over two mph; his curveball has increased by one mph; and his changeup is up over two mph.

ERA is a fickle stat for relievers since a couple bad outings can provide a season-long taint on the number. It is not very likely Park will sustain such a high percentage of stranded runners, meaning his success has its best chance of continuing if less runners reach base. Since he is not getting hit around too much this decrease in baserunners needs to come primarily from his walks. If he manages a 1.43+ WHIP all season it is more likely the LOB% will drop, more runners will score, and his ERA-FIP discrepancy won’t be as high because both will be in the below average range.