Part of my daily routine involves checking the league leaders page here and sorting by various stats. In doing so this morning I found that there are currently four players, with enough PA to qualify for the leaderboard, who are yet to hit a home run.

Juan Pierre, Julio Lugo, and Jason Bartlett are not necessarily surprising members of the club but, as the title of this post suggests, the fourth member is Victor Martinez. While not a power threat of the Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard ilk, he has hit 16-25 home runs each of the last four years with a steadily increasing OPS of .851-.879 in that span.

Through 54 games this year he has 0 home runs, a .333 SLG, and a .665 OPS. Granted he is injured right now but Indians fans might want to hope the lower numbers are a result of poor health rather than a shift in performance. It’s still too early and his updated projection may not have changed too drastically however something is definitely up.

His flyball percentage of 38.2% last year currently sits at 29.2%. He also has a BABIP of .314 so it is not as if he has been extremely unlucky. His walk and strikeout rates have curiously decreased as well. Plate discipline stats look very similar across the board with the exception of pitches swung at outside the zone. He’s swinging at 29.83% of those OOZ pitches—up from 23.76% last year—yet making essentially the same 76% of contact.

Victor’s first home run in 2007 came in his fifth game; he homered in his second game in 2006; in both his eighth and ninth games in 2005; and his second game in 2004. The 54 homerless games this year is a little over four times the aggregate total preceding his initial dinger in the last four years. With his injury, V-Mart may miss 6-8 weeks, meaning it could be the middle of August before he hits his first home run… if that.

Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla seems primed to post his best offensive season yet. Through 67 games he is hitting .289/.369/.613—a .982 OPS—with 19 home runs, 23 doubles, and 49 RBI. His slash statistics and OPS would all be career highs should the season, for whatever reason, end today. His SLG has surpassed the .600 mark due to 43 extra base hits out of 73 total. His .324 ISO confirms that, yep, Uggla’s got plenty of power.

Interestingly enough, Uggla has been somewhat inconsistent, month to month, this season. In April (and March 31) he proved detrimental, represented by his -0.216 WPA. Since then, however, he has contributed 2.039 wins to the second place Marlins. Even though his June WPA is a positive 0.504, his general statistics look closer to his April than red-hot May:

April: 115 PA, .255/.330/.471, .801 OPS, 4 HR
May: 113 PA, .347/.425/.827, 1.252 OPS, 12 HR
June: 62 PA, .245/.339/.491, .829 OPS, 3 HR

His SLG in May essentially equaled or surpassed his OPS in both April and the first half of June. While a player with a K% as high as Uggla’s–he’s in Ryan Howard territory right now–may not sustain high and respectable batting averages it does not mean he cannot still prove to be a productive power threat. Last year, he hit 31 HR with a .245 BA and a .286 BABIP; right now he’s close to 2/3 of the way toward matching his home run total and he’s got a .289 BA/.351 BABIP helping to increase his productivity.

If the Marlins want to defy the odds and stay in contention until the end of the season, Dannyboy is going to need to sustain some semblance of consistent productivity since most would attest their young pitching staff is not very likely to hold up from now until September 30th.

Matt Lindstrom throws harder than anyone else in baseball. His average fastball velocity is 97 miles per hour, and he breaks triple digits regularly. No one else in baseball is even with 1 MPH of Lindstrom’s average fastball – Jonathan Papelbon is next at 95.6 MPH. The heat is his calling card, and not surprisingly, he throws it a lot – 71% of his pitches are fastballs.

Like a lot of power relievers, Lindstrom’s second pitch is a slider. He throws it 22.2% of the time, and realistically, it’s the pitch he’ll throw you if he’s not going to try to light up the radar. However, Lindstrom’s slider checks in at a more modest 83.9 MPH velocity. That’s not slow by any means, but it’s not even close to being among the hardest in the league – the BIS data here on FanGraphs has him throwing the 101st hardest slider in baseball. Some of those are miscategorized fastballs and cutters, so he’s probably closer to the top 80, but the velocity difference of 13 MPH between his fastball and slider is still pretty staggering.

The people he shares a similar slider velocity with include Bill Bray (91.3 MPH fastball), Seth McClung (93.1 MPH fastball), Jason Frasor (93.9 MPH fastball), Jeremy Guthrie (92.8 MPH fastball), Leo Nunez (94.2 MPH fastball), and Jason Hammel (92.0 MPH fastball). Lindstrom’s 97.0 stands out from that crowd like a sore thumb.

For whatever reason, Lindstrom just doesn’t throw the slider with the same power that he dials up his fastball, and that’s likely one of the main reasons his strikeout rate is lower than you would expect with a guy who can pop triple digits. When he’s bringing the heat, it’s pretty straight, and when you get something that moves, it’s simply not a dominating power pitch anymore.

In my inaugural post here at Fangraphs, back on April 14th (seems like forever ago), I wrote about Phillies leftfielder Pat Burrell and how he had been extremely consistent in his productivity over the last few years. Despite this, his low batting averages, combined with a disastrous 2003 season have led some fans to value and appreciate his production much less than they should. Two months later, Burrell is still producing at a very high level; in fact, according to some metrics he is producing at a higher level than anyone else in the league.

Based on his win probability statistics, Burrell has a higher WPA (4.48) than anyone in the sport. Additionally, his WPA/LI of 2.94 ranks second and his clutch score of 1.29 deems him the third clutchiest player in the major leagues.

He has 18 home runs this year, putting him in a tie for sixth even though it is the third-highest raw total (ironically, the first and second highest raw total belong to, among others, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard). Last year, 51.4% of his balls in play were of the flyball variety; this year it has dipped to 42.4%. However, his HR/FB has actually risen from 16.2% to 24.0%.

Through 70 games, he has produced a .289/.433/.614 slash line, ultimately resulting in a 1.047 OPS. Compare that to his 2005-2007 numbers:

2005: .389 OBP, .504 SLG, .893 OPS
2006: .388 OBP, .502 SLG, .890 OPS
2007: .400 OBP, .502 SLG, .902 OPS
2008: .433 OBP, .614 SLG, 1.047 OPS

The numbers this year are so high they don’t even align in the above table! Okay, it’s still early and it’s doubtful he has changed his pre-season projection that much but he has definitely showed signs of improvement in recent years. This improvement is not evident anywhere moreso than his BB% and K%:

2004: 14.8 BB%, 29.0 K%
2005: 15.0 BB%, 28.5 K%
2006: 17.5 BB%, 28.4 K%
2007: 19.5 BB%, 25.4 K%
2008: 20.3 BB%, 23.2 K%

This has led to a BB/K increase from 0.51 in 2003 to 1.09 right now. Back on April 14th I called for the Phillies to sign Pat the Bat to a short extension, in large part due to his consistent production, love for the city and willingness to offer a hometown discount sorts; it is not very likely this will happen due to the financial situation/obligations of the team and the fact that Burrell has essentially become an AL-type player. If this is indeed Burrell’s last year with the Phillies, fans really need to appreciate the offense he provides so as to avoid generalizing an entire tenure—a quite productive one, might I add—based on one very poor year and a bad barometer such as batting average.

There is no doubt that the Detroit Tigers organization has had a disappointing season up to this point. However, there is good news in the minor league system.

After purging most of its top prospects from the system this past winter to acquire such names as Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, and Dontrelle Willis, the Tigers organization was rated as having one of the worst systems in the game. But a number of the mid-level prospects in the system have improved their games. As well, top pitching prospect and 2007 first-round pick Rick Porcello made his much-anticipated pro debut.

Porcello, who was drafted out of a New Jersey high school, was considered a Top 10 talent but he fell to the 27th overall pick due to signability concerns. Every team in the league who passed him up now regrets it, as he is holding his own in High-A ball as a 19-year-old. He throws in the mid-90s and has a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball, curve, slider and change-up.

So far this season, Porcello has a 2.94 ERA in 67.1 innings. He has allowed 67 hits and only 19 walks, to go along with 41 strikeouts. Although he is not striking out a ton of batters, Porcello is inducing more than 2.2 ground balls for every fly ball out and only four balls have left the yard. He is actually having better luck against left-handed batters (.222 batting average), than righties (.283).

His worst game of the season came on June 1 when he faced the Dunedin Blue Jays for the fourth time in a month. He allowed four earned runs on nine hits and three walks over 4.2 innings. Porcello was been excellent so far in his pro career despite skipping over both short season ball and low A-ball. He could end up being one of the first pitchers from the 2007 draft to make it to the majors, which is good news for the Detroit Tigers.

A lot has gone right so far this year for the Chicago Cubs – they have the best record in baseball led by an offense that scores runs in a hurry. It takes more than one breakthrough performance to create this kind of improvement in one winter, and so while the credit has to be passed around, no player’s surge has been more unexpected or helpful than that of Ryan Dempster.

Dempster was a rather pedestrian reliever the last few years with Chicago, missing bats but also having problems finding the strike zone on a consistent basis. Like a lot of right-handed pitchers who use a fastball/slider combination as their two main pitches, he also struggled significantly against left-handers. His career splits vs batter handedness are below:

Vs RHB: .246/.324/.379, 2.09 K/BB, 1 HR per 40 AB
Vs LHB: .280/.386/.456, 1.23 K/BB, 1 HR per 28 AB

With significant platoon splits, relief work seemed the best fit for Dempster, so he could be used primarily against same handed hitters. As a starter, the opposing manager would have the ability to load up the line-up with lefties and let the offense go nuts. There wasn’t much there to suggest that Dempster was going to be a quality starting pitcher.

However, Dempster has taken the challenge of facing more left-handed bats and answered it with gusto. His 2008 splits:

Vs RHB: .193/.295/.289, 1.54 K/BB, 1 HR per 55 AB
Vs LHB: .177/.247/.304, 3.15 K/BB, 1 HR per 32 AB

He has more strikeouts against lefties than he does against righties, and he’s putting them on with the free pass far less often than in years past. His pitch selection doesn’t appear to have changed much, mixing in a change-up (that Lou Piniella calls a splitter and has similar downward movement) about 1/3 of the time against lefties and keeping the slider as a weapon against right-handed hitters.

Whether his change/split has really improved or, more likely, this is just an unsustainable excellent performance, the Cubs have to be thrilled with how the Dempster-to-the-rotation move has worked. He’s not going to post a 2.81 ERA this year, but even a regression to his 3.78 FIP would make him a quality starting pitcher. If he can continue to keep left-handed hitters in check, the Cubs will have found themselves another strong arm to slot in behind Carlos Zambrano in their chase to end the curse of the billy goat.

The biggest move this offseason saw Johan Santana heading to the Mets in exchange for Carlos Gomez and some more prospects. The former two-time (should be three-time) Cy Young Award winner looked to solidify a pitching rotation that seemed more than capable of making fans forget all about last year’s end of season breakdown. Coming off of a relative down year—a down year for him was still better than the up year of most others—there were some who questioned whether or not Johan would be able to regain whatever made him successful pre-2007.

One of the biggest reasons his performance suffered last year came in the form of home run balls. From 2003-2006 his HR/9 ranged from 0.85-0.97; in 2007 it jumped to 1.36 as he allowed 33 dingers. I recently took a look at his Pitch F/X data over the last year and a half to see if he had done anything differently on hits as compared to fouls or swinging strikes. The results also showed that his home run balls—or other hard hit balls—generally came from pitches not just with lesser velocity and/or movement but also very poor location: Most of his home run balls came on pitches right down the middle.

In Johan’s first 60 innings this season he surrendered 11 HR; over his last 34.2 he has surrendered just one.

First 9: 60.0 IP, 52 H, 11 HR, 15 BB, 57 K
Last 5: 34.2 IP, 36 H, 1 HR, 9 BB, 29 K

Of course it is too small of a sample to generate definitive conclusions but we can still investigate and make observations pertaining to whether or not any discrepancies in relevant Pitch F/X data exist in this split. For starters, here are the velocity and movement data for his first nine starts:

FA: 90.54 mph, 5.63 horiz/9.22 vert
SL: 84.18 mph, -0.98 horiz/4.53 vert
CH: 79.69 mph, 5.51 horiz/8.13 vert

And here is the same data in his last five starts:

FA: 92.39 mph, 6.68 horiz/9.64 vert
SL: 84.89 mph, -0.57 horiz/4.64 vert
CH: 79.94 mph, 6.48 horiz/7.54 vert

He has thrown harder and with more movement lately. One of the problems with his hard hit balls, as mentioned above, dealt with the percentage of pitches he threw down the middle. Here are his splits of pitches thrown down the middle:

First 9: 11.5%
Last 5: 11.9%

Though it appears he has thrown slightly more down the middle recently the small sample detracts from any real discrepancy. How about his accuracy? Here is his Ball/Strike/In Play breakdown for the first nine starts, followed by the last five:

K: 46.8%, 45.1%
B: 35.1%, 34.5%
X: 18.1%, 20.4%

Speaking of balls put in play, have any less fallen in for hits lately?

Outs In Play: 67.5%, 64.2%
Hits In Play: 32.5%, 35.8%

Despite sustaining a similar level of accuracy and balls put in play he has actually allowed a slightly higher percentage of those in play to fall in for hits. Looking at his WHIP in these two different spans (1.12 compared to 1.25) it seems that he was hit less in the early going though those hits were of a higher value than recently, despite the increase in hits given up lately. Lastly, has he gotten ahead of hitters any more or less lately? Here is his first-pitch strike split:

First 9: 51.2%
Last 5: 44.8%

All told, not much can truly be garnered in terms of data discrepancies but Johan has gotten ahead of hitters less as of late, has essentially sustained his patterns of accuracy, is throwing virtually the same percentage of pitches down the middle, and is allowing more hits. All of these signs would intuitively point toward similar or worse performance and yet he has thrown better lately. Perhaps his increase in velocity and movement over his last five starts has prevented hitters from getting the fat part of the bat on the ball quite as often. Definitely something to look out for as the season progresses.

Today we’re talking about Marcus Thames, the Tigers outfielder who essentially garners the following scouting report – “Will hit for power but not much else, and will strikeout a lot.”

Through 40 games this year, Thames is hitting .240/.307/.510 (compared to a .241/.306/.494 career line), doing all he can to show that he does not hit much but, when he does, it is generally of the extra-bases variety. Of his 25 hits this year, 12 (48%) are either doubles or home runs. Of all his seasons with at least 100 PA, his XBH percentages have ranged from 43-52%.

Due to this we can assume his ISO, basically the BA of extra base hits, to be higher than his overall BA:

2004: .255 BA, .255 ISO
2005: .196 BA, .215 ISO
2006: .256 BA, .293 ISO
2007: .242 BA, .257 ISO
2008: .240 BA, .269 ISO

His strikeout rates in this same span run from 22.1% to 35.5% so Thames knows how to confirm scouting reports. He hits for power more often than not but does not put the ball in play much due to the high volume of strikeouts. This is not to say he lacks value, though, as he has a positive career WPA and WPA/LI. This year, his WPA slash line (WPA/WPA-LI/Clutch) is currently 0.56/0.07/0.55.

He has contributed a little over half of a win to his team in WPA, but the large dropoff between that and WPA/LI suggests his contributions have more to do with the situations he finds himself in rather than his actual individual performance. He does not qualify for the Fangraphs leaderboards but, if he did, his Clutch score would rank 9th in the AL. I’ve read elsewhere that some fans (of different teams as well) would love for him to replace an unproductive outfielder of theirs, not just because of his “pop” but also his relatively low market value. He might be a decent upgrade over some other current outfielders but he should not be treated as a savior or any sort.

The scouting report on him has not been wrong yet: Thames will strikeout a ton, won’t get on base much, won’t hit for average, but will hit for power. Nothing more, nothing less.

Bench players are almost always not given a starting job for a reason – they have a significant flaw in their game that usually involves either an inability to field a position, a lack of offensive ability, or (if you’re a Seattle Mariner) both. Teams just want their reserves to be able to fill a specific role (pinch runner, defensive replacement, etc…) and not completely embarrass themselves when they get put in the game.

For instance, the average in-game substitute compiles a .217/.305/.324 line after entering the game. As a group, reserves don’t hit much – if they did, they’d be starting. But in Philadelphia, it’s a different story – their subs have hit .283/.350/.453 in 183 plate appearances off the bench. That .803 OPS from their subs is 52 percent better than the league average performance, and is one of the reasons the Phillies are surging to the front of the N.L. East.

The shining star of the Phillies fill-ins is Greg Dobbs, who has destroyed the baseball in games he entered but did not start – 19 for 42 with five extra base hits for a .452/.467/.653 mark. That dwarfs Dobbs’ performance as a starter – 13 for 45 with three extra base hits for a .289/.333/.400 mark. This, of course, is just random variation, but it’s interesting random variation.

The Phillies have some big name stars and several former MVPs on their roster, but let’s not overlook the yeoman’s work their bench has done for them this year. Jayson Werth, Chris Coste, and Greg Dobbs have given them all-star caliber performances despite not being handed regular jobs out of spring training, and those guys are the hidden stars on the first place Phillies.

One thing the Oakland Athletics organization does not get enough credit for, thank to the media focus on its drafting philosophies, is finding diamonds in the rough. In recent seasons, the Athletics have found players in the bargain bin only to squeeze unexpected value from them. That list includes such players as Jack Cust, Shannon Stewart, Andrew Brown, Jack Hannahan, and Frank Thomas (version 1.0).

The same can be said for minor league players in the system… Now these players may not have a major impact like Cust did when he hit 26 homers in 2007, but minor league depth is vitally important for a franchise to be successful. As such, let’s take a look at some of the more interesting players the Athletics organization has added to its system via minor league free agency and the waiver wire.

At 6-1, 165 pounds, third baseman Jesus Guzman does not look like a slugger, but he currently has 18 doubles and 12 home runs in 276 at-bats for the Double-A Midland RockHounds. The 24-year-old minor league free agent pick-up is also hitting .355/.405./.565. Last year at High-A ball (albeit in the hitting haven of High Desert), Guzman hit .301/.370/.539 with 25 homers, 38 doubles, 102 runs scored and 112 RBI. Why did Seattle give up on this guy? The organization likely cut ties with him because his big 2007 came after two not-so-great seasons at Double-A. But that comes with a caveat because Seattle did what is becoming a disturbing trend. It rushed Guzman. He came to North America, after signing out of Venezuela, and was immediately placed in High-A ball at the age of 20. He then was pushed to Double-A the next season and he averaged about .258/.334/.388 for the next two seasons before moving back down to High-A ball and thriving.

Jon Zeringue, 25, has been a nice find for the A’s organization and has provided solid numbers for Double-A Midland since being picked up out of an independent baseball league last season. The former second round pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks was, like Guzman, rushed through the minors and struggled with Double-A before being unceremoniously released. This season he his hitting .290/.383/.504 with 11 homers and 42 runs scored in 238 at-bats. He has a .340 average against southpaws and 10 of his 16 hits have been doubles.

Wes Bankston is a forgotten member of the Tampa Bay Rays’ ridiculous minor league depth. Drafted out of high school, the slugging first baseman hit .301/.346/.569 with 18 homers in 246 Rookie Ball at-bats in 2002. Two seasons later in A-ball, he slugged 23 homers and drove in 101 runs and sat amongst the Rays’ best prospects. Then injuries slowed his ascent and the organization experimented with an ill-advised conversion to third base. After a disappointing offensive season at Triple-A in 2007, at the age of 23, Bankston was removed from the 40-man roster to make room for a new wave of talent and was claimed on waivers by the A’s. Bankston is still struggling at Triple-A as his plate discipline has diminished along with his power but he is still young enough to recapture his past approach and secure a part-time Major League job.

From all appearances Brooks Conrad is a perfect fit for the Athletics organization. The former eighth round pick of the Houston Astros out of Arizona State University was never given a fair shake in the organization despite above-average offensive numbers as a second baseman, including 40 doubles, 15 triples and 24 homers in Triple-A in 2006. Conrad did not even sniff a Major League plate appearance in seven seasons in the Astros organization. His numbers are not looking so hot this season but Conrad could still have some value on a major league bench, in part due to his grinder mentality, if he can improve his average. He is currently hitting .227/.293/.446 with 13 homers in 242 at-bats.

Casey Rogowski is a former White Sox prospect. The left-handed hitting first baseman has always intrigued teams with his raw power and surprising base running skills for a 6-3, 230 pound man. He has stolen more than 15 bases seven times and surpassed 20 twice. However, he has only exceeded 15 homers once, although he is on pace to do it again this season and is currently hitting .273/.347/.444 with nine homers in 216 at-bats. Rogowski has also taken his fair share of walks in his career. He is yet another player who could eventually find part-time employment at the Major League level.

You don’t win big without taking a little risk and thinking outside the box, which is what these players represent. They won’t be superstars and some of them may never play at the Major League level for the Athletics but, as mentioned, the organization is one of the best when it comes to squeezing value out of other organization’s rejects and failed projects. These five players all possess the potential to join the likes of Cust and Hannahan at exceeding expectations.