Dontrelle Willis is broken. At 26 years old, for whatever reason, he has lost the ability to throw the ball over the plate. Here are his performances so far in 2008:

April 5th, vs White Sox: 5 IP, 1 H, 7 BB, 0 K, 99 pitches, 46 strikes
April 11th, vs White Sox: 0 IP, 0 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 14 pitches, 4 strikes
May 23rd, vs Twins: 1 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 28 pitches, 13 strikes
June 3rd, vs Athletics: 4 IP, 2 H, 5 BB, 3 K, 70 pitches, 37 strikes
June 9th, vs Indians: 1 1/3 IP, 3 H, 5 BB, 2 K, 64 pitches, 27 strikes

After his April 11th appearance, the Tigers put him on the DL to try to give him a chance to figure out his mechanics and get himself ready to pitch. It didn’t work, and after three more disastrous appearances since returning, he’s now been optioned to Single-A Lakeland of the Florida State League, as the Tigers are going to put him on the Roy Halladay plan to try to repair their busted starting pitcher. Toronto sent Halladay back to the minors in 2000 after he posted a 10.64 ERA in 67 innings of work, and with some changes in his approach and his delivery, he returned in 2001 and restarted a dominating, Cy Young career.

That’s obviously the best case scenario for Willis, but it appears an unlikely one. While Halladay was bad in 2000, he wasn’t anywhere near this horrible.

Halladay, 2000: 5.59 BB/9, 5.85 K/9, 1.86 HR/9, 6.49 FIP
Willis, 2008: 16.68 BB/9, 3.97 K/9, 1.59 HR/9, 10.11 FIP

Halladay was bad, but Willis is struggling on a Rick Ankiel level. Only 48% of his pitches on the season have been strikes, and he’s posting a dreadful 6% swinging strike rate. Even when he manages to get the ball over the plate, which is a rarity unto itself, hitters are making contact. He’s simply not able to locate any of his pitches, and the results lead to either a called ball or a crushed line drive.

Generally, when a pitcher struggles this badly, the initial assumption is that he’s hurt, but Willis’ stuff hasn’t taken much of a dive. His fastball velocity still sits at 88.5 MPH, down less than 1 MPH from last year’s mark, and he’s actually throwing his change-up harder this year than at any point in the last four years. If he’s’ hurt, it isn’t affecting his velocity.

Really, the best guess here is that it’s a mental problem. By sending him to Lakeland, the Tigers can get him some work away from the obsessive eyes of fans and let him tinker with his mechanics in a safe environment where the results don’t matter. But, for 2008, Tigers fans should assume they’re not going to see Willis again – he could use the next three months in the minors to fix what’s broken and try to return as a successful pitcher in 2009.

The Oakland Athletics organization made some key trades in the 2007-08 off-season. A trade with the Chicago White Sox saw the A’s send one of its key offensive cogs north in somewhat of a surprising move. First baseman-outfielder Nick Swisher was traded to The Windy City for disappointing outfielder Ryan Sweeney and top pitching prospects Gio Gonzalez and Fautino De Los Santos.

Swisher’s trade was a bit of a surprise considering he was a young hitter locked into a reasonable five-year contract that runs through 2011 and includes an option at $10.25 million for 2012. That said, Swisher has struggled this season with the White Sox and is hitting only .228/.343/.386 in 215 at-bats. His slugging percentage is down 70 points from his career average. Maybe the A’s knew something the rest of us did not (wink, wink, nudge, nudge, say no more)? Or maybe he is just having an off year. On the plus side, he’s still walking a lot (14.7 percent) and the club is in first place in its division.

Sweeney, a former second round pick out of high school, was in desperate need of a scenery change – and former Sox teammate Brian Anderson is no doubt envious of his good fortune. Sweeney, 23, is currently hitting .293/.353/.407 in 123 at-bats for his new club. Those obviously are not All-Star numbers but he has been a solid contributor for the organization.

Southpaw Gonzalez, 22, is currently biding his time in Triple-A Sacramento and gives the Athletics excellent starting pitching depth. If the club needed him, he could probably be at least a league average starter right now. Currently, he has a 5.71 ERA in 64.2 innings of work with 74 hits allowed and 35 walks. His numbers are a little skewed after he was roughed up in two of his last four starts for 17 earned runs on 20 hits in 8.2 innings.

De Los Santos, 22, was considered one of the biggest up-and-comers in 2007 after going 10-5 with a 2.65 ERA and 153 strikeouts in 122.1 A-ball innings. But he succumbed to Tommy John surgery after only five High-A ball starts after coming over to the Athletics. Gee… what a surprise. The White Sox organization has never traded (Mike) an injured pitcher (Sirotka) before. Luckily the track record for pitchers returning from the surgery is pretty solid.

Even with the injury, the trade seems to be in Oakland’s favor at this point.

Ater being stuck on 599 for several weeks, Ken Griffey Jr launched the 600th home run of his career last night, allowing Mark Hendrickson to go down in history for something other than being tall. Junior joins Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, and Sammy Sosa as the only players in history to notch 600 career bombs.

Growing up in Seattle, I saw Junior come up as a 19-year-old and then grow into an MVP candidate. One of the most frequent conversations I had with friends was whether Junior was going to be the one to get to 756 and break the all time home run record. Most people who saw him play in his prime would agree that he certainly had the ability to do so, but unfortunately, he didn’t have the ability to stay healthy. Due to injuries, he played less than half of a season in 1995, 2002, 2003, and 2004 – those injuries cost him approximately 1,300 at-bats. How many more home runs would he have hit had he stayed healthy?

Well, we can never know for sure, but there are several estimates we can use. The simplest is to note that he has a career rate of one home run every 15.75 at-bats. Over 1,300 trips to the plate, that same rate would have given him an extra 83 bombs. Of course, his career rate includes both his early years before his power developed, and he likely would have posted a AB/HR rate closer to his peak seasons, when he fluctuated between one home run every 10 to 13 trips to the plate. Using those rates, here are the amount of homers we could theoretically add to Junior’s career total depending on which of those numbers you think would best emulate Griffey’s performance.

One HR every 10 at-bats: Add 130 homers
One HR every 11 at-bats: Add 118 homers
One HR every 12 at-bats: Add 108 homers
One HR every 13 at-bats: Add 100 homers

Depending on your beliefs about his abilities in those seasons, the basic assumption should be that the injuries in those four seasons cost him between 100 and 130 home runs, pushing him into the exclusive 700 home run club. At age 38 and reaching a level that suggests he doesn’t have that much left to contribute, it’s unlikely that Junior would have passed Hank Aaron even had he stayed healthy, but he would have had a shot at it.

Ken Griffey Jr has had a great career, but we’ll always wonder what could have been had the injuries not robbed him of a significant part of his career.

When the Pirates cut ties with Matt Morris they needed to replace his spot in the rotation. Opting to fill the role with someone already on the major league club, reliever Phil Dumatrait soon found himself a starter. Since assuming the position he has performed quite well; in fact, he has pitched better than in his relief appearances:

SP: 8 G, 44.2 IP, 35 H, 22 BB, 33 K, 3.22 ERA
RP: 10 G, 20.2 IP, 22 H, 13 BB, 13 K, 3.92 ERA

In terms of WPA, Dumatrait clocks in at -0.65 as a reliever but +0.28 as a starter; the +0.28 makes him the most productive Pirates starting pitcher. Additionally, his relief WPA took a severe hit in one outing—with a -0.666. His overall WPA comes in at -0.37 whereas he has a 0.49 WPA/LI and 0.28 REW.

Overall, Dumatrait is 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, and 1.31 K/BB. He isn’t the best at keeping runners off base but has stranded 75.8% of them.

Looking at his splits vs. batter handedness, lefties have made up just 20.3% of his total batters faced but he has handled them quite effectively:

RHB: 224 PA, .250/.327/.393, 24 BB, 33 K
LHB: 57 PA, .182/.368/.205, 11 BB, 13 K

He has kept batters to a quite low opposing OPS but batters produce better as the leverage of a situation increases:

High Lev.: 48 PA, .211/.313/.395, .707 OPS, .182 BABIP
Med Lev.: 105 PA, .227/.352/.352, .705 OPS, .271 BABIP
Low Lev.: 128 PA, .254/.331/.351, .682 OPS, .311 BABIP

His opposing OPS increases as the importance of the situation increases while their BABIP decreases. The Pirates have been a surprising 30-33 this season (better than many expected at this point) and Dumatrait’s seamless efforts in filling a rotation spot has been one of the major reasons. With their other starters underperforming it will be key for Phil the Pirate Swingman to sustain this general range of performance.

Tampa Bay has been one of the fun, feel good stories of 2008. After nothing but failure in their franchises history, Tampa has finally been able to convert some of their talent into wins, and they currently have a comfortable three game lead over the Oakland Athletics in the A.L. Wild Card race. The brain trust in Tampa has been building this team around a young core of stars-in-the-making position players that include B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Evan Longoria.

However, interestingly enough, the Rays are winning in spite of their hitters. Indeed, it’s been the run prevention side of the ball that has Tampa in playoff contention for the first time. Their offense is a scoring 4.49 runs per game, basically league average, mostly due to the fact that Crawford (.266/.312/.371) and Pena (.227/.333/.430) have struggled significantly. Upton has maintained his role as the Rays best hitter, but even he has seen his power decline, launching just five home runs so far this year. They’ve gotten positive contributions from useful role players such as Dioner Navarro and Eric Hinske, but overall, the offense has been a disappointment and is the main reason they are no longer in first place in the A.L. East.

Instead, it’s been the pitchers carrying the load. As a team, they have a 4.01 FIP, good for fourth best in the A.L. Only Toronto, Chicago, and Oakland are getting better performances from their pitchers. Scott Kazmir has been unhittable since coming off the disabled list, while James Shields has been his usual consistent self. Edwin Jackson has flashed brilliance more often than not, so even with his inconsistency, he’s been a positive performer, and the back-end rotation guys in Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine have been solid if not spectacular.

It’s been the bullpen, however, that has been the biggest difference maker. Troy Percival, Dan Wheeler, and J.P. Howell have given the Rays a strong group to cover the 8th and 9th innings, and the bullpen’s performance is reflected in their league leading 4.63 WPA as a group – the highest of any team in the American League. When asked to perform in high leverage situations, Tampa’s bullpen has come through time after time. This is a radical change from last year’s pen that simply poured gasoline on every fire they could find, posting a -8.40 WPA over the season.

By improving the defense, getting better work from their relievers, and stabilizing the back end of the rotation, Tampa has built a winner in spite of the struggles of two of their best hitters. This team still needs Pena and Crawford to start hitting soon, but their unheralded teammates have kept them in the race and bought them enough time to do so.

The Oakland Athletics organization has received a lot of ink over its drafting philosophies, but Billy Beane’s trades tend to get overlooked. The general manager brought a number of highly-touted (and not-so-touted) prospects into the struggling minor league system this past off-season. As such, now is the perfect time to spend the week taking a look at how those transactions have worked out for the Athletics and the club’s trading partners.

Along with a couple larger trades, the Athletics made two smaller trades: one with Toronto and one with Atlanta. On Nov. 18, the organization traded super-sub Marco Scutaro to the Jays for right-handed pitchers Kristian Bell and Graham Godfrey. On Jan. 14, the Athletics sent oft-injured outfielder Mark Kotsay to the Braves for pitchers Joey Devine and Jamie Richmond.

In an effort to save some cash with the arbitration-eligible Scutaro, Beane sent arguably the team’s most valuable position player to the Jays. Yes, Scutaro, who was originally acquired by the A’s on waivers from the New York Mets, filled in admirably for the club’s injured infielders:

2004 filled in for injured second baseman Mark Ellis (123 games at 2B)
2005 filled in for injured shortstop Bobby Crosby (81 games at SS)
2006 filled in for injured shortstop Bobby Crosby (69 games at SS)
2007 filled in for injured shortstop Bobby Crosby (43 games at SS)
2007 filled in for injured third baseman Eric Chavez (36 games at 3B)

Scutaro has already proven his worth in Toronto this season. He has filled in for injured shortstop David Eckstein (21 games) and injured third baseman Scott Rolen (20 games). Scutaro has posted his typical offensive numbers with a line of .268/.356/.346 with two homers and five stolen bases in 179 at-bats.

Bell, 24, throws in the low- to mid-90s in the bullpen but has below-average command. After a good spring, he was assigned to Double-A despite posting a 5.33 ERA in the Florida State League for Toronto in 2007. Bell struggled for the A’s in Double-A and posted a 9.45 ERA in 11 games. He was then demoted to High-A ball in mid-May, made one appearance and was placed on the disabled list.

Godfrey, 23, was a starter in the Jays system but he has spent time as a swing man in the A’s system due to his lack of a quality third pitch to accompany his low-90s fastball and slider. So far this season in High-A ball, Godfrey has posted a 4.92 ERA in 56.2 innings. He has allowed 57 hits and 16 walks. Godfrey has struck out 45 batters but allowed six homers.

It was no secret that the A’s wanted to get rid of center fielder Kotsay and the organization found a taker in Atlanta. He rewarded his new club with a solid performance so far this season. Kotsay currently has a line of .294/.344/.435 with four homers and two stolen bases in 170 at-bats.

The Athletics, on the other hand, received a couple of interesting arms in return for Kotsay. Devine, a former first round pick, struggled with his command as a member of the Atlanta Braves and walked 22 batters in 20.1 innings over parts of three seasons. So far with the A’s, though, Devine has walked only seven batters in 22 innings. He has also struck out 28 hitters and allowed 16 hits. He has yet to give up a homer and could eventually move into the closer’s role if (and when) the Athletics trade current fireman Huston Street.

Richmond, 22, started his A’s career by struggling after being send back to A-ball to begin the year despite modest success at that level last season for Atlanta. He currently has a 3.79 ERA in 69 innings and has allowed 64 hits and just eight walks. The right-hander has struck out 48 batters and has induced two ground balls for every fly ball out.

Last week I took a look at how the members of Atlanta’s former big three—Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine—are currently performing. It only made sense to now take a look at Atlanta’s newest incarnation of a big three. The quotes in the title do not imply sarcasm but rather denote the large dropoff in talent from one group to another.

With Smoltz now out for the season, Mike Hampton pulling a Hampton (what we can now call DL-stints for pitchers) and Chuck James pitching in AAA, Bobby Cox has had to get creative with his rotation. These three have seemingly been replaced with Jair Jurrjens, JoJo Reyes, and Jorge Campillo. So, how are the newbies faring?

Jair Jurrjens
13 GS, 6-3, 3.77 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.44 WHIP
76.1 IP, 78 H, 32 BB, 55 K
73.3% LOB, .313 BABIP, 1.72 K/BB
FA: 91.5mph/64.5%, SL: 80.4mph/9.3%, CH: 83.9mph/26.2%
1st 10 GS: 61.1 IP, 50 H, 18 ER, 22 BB, 45 K, +0.884 WPA, 31 RS (3.1/gm)
Last 3 GS: 15.0 IP, 28 H, 14 ER, 10 BB, 10 K, -0.764 WPA, 18 RS (6.0/gm)

Essentially, Jurrjens pitched his best when the Braves weren’t scoring for him but lately, with plenty of runs, he must have felt bad for the oppositions and let them score to make it more competitive.

JoJo Reyes
8 GS, 2-4, 4.80 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.42 WHIP
45 IP, 48 H, 16 BB, 42 K
68.9% LOB, .331 BABIP, 2.63 K/BB
FA: 91.3mph/63.8%, SL: 81.5mph/12.5%, CU: 72.7mph/8.6%, CH: 82.3mph/15.2%
5/28 @ Mil: 7 IP, 2 H, ER, 3 BB, 9 K, 1.29 ERA, 0.71 WHIP
All Others: 38 IP, 46 H, 23 ER, 13 BB, 33 K, 5.45 ERA, 1.55 WHIP

Reyes throws virtually the same amount of fastballs and sliders as Jurrjens, but splits the rest between a curve and changeup. He has a nice K/BB ratio but he lets many on base and hasn’t been the best at preventing them from scoring.

Jorge Campillo
5 GS (18 GP), 2-0, 2.17 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 1.03 WHIP
45.2 IP, 38 H, 9 BB, 38 K
74.8% LOB, .278 BABIP, 4.22 K/BB
FA: 86.6mph/34.5%, SL: 81.7mph/19.2%, CU: 71.0mph/12.4%, CH: 75.3mph/27.3%
As SP: 5 G, 24.1 IP, 22 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 21 K, 2.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .663 OPS
As RP: 13 G, 21.1 IP, 16 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 17 K, 1.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .516 OPS

Almost 30 years old and still considered a rookie, Campillo pitched so well out of the pen he earned a spot in the rotation. Since joining he really has not disappointed. Campillo is the definitive example of a “comfortable 0-fer” as hitters will not be dominated by his pitching but could very easily find themselves 0-4 at the end of the day, wondering how this guy stopped them.

OK, so Jurrjens/Reyes/Campillo isn’t anywhere near Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine… but if Braves fans want to be discussing their Divisional Series opponents in October, you better believe these three will need to at the very least channel and sustain Steve Avery/John Burkett/Denny Neagle for the rest of the season.

Joe Crede is (insert your own hypberole here). Since last Wednesday, he’s had the following games:

June 4th, vs KC: 2 for 3, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, .326 WPA
June 6th, vs MIN: 4 for 4, 2 HR, .194 WPA
June 7th, vs MIN: 2 for 4, 2 HR, .120 WPA
June 8th, vs Min: 2 for 4, 1 2B, .018 WPA

He’s reached base 12 times in 17 trips to the plate (.705 OBP) and has seven extra base hits (1.800 SLG) since Wednesday. Five days ago, he was slugging .465, but after this stretch, he’s raised that mark 100 points. In four games. In June.

All winter, the White Sox did what they could to trade Crede. With Josh Fields around, Crede coming off a disastrous 2007 season, and heading into his free agent season, he didn’t seem to fit in Chicago’s plans, but they couldn’t find anyone willing to give much up for Crede, so they kept him around. That’s turned out to be a season saving decision, as he and Carlos Quentin have saved the White Sox offense amid struggles from Nick Swisher, Paul Konerko, and Jim Thome. Ozzie Guillen might not be very happy with his offense’s consistency, but Joe Crede certainly isn’t going to be the reason the hitting coach gets fired.

Anybody who has seen the Adam Sandler film Happy Gilmore will remember that his character generated power and distance on his drives thanks to a running start. Well, in watching the replay of last night’s Phillies-Braves game I saw rookie outfielder Gregor Blanco do something similar in an at-bat of his. Check it out:

Whatever he did worked as he singled on that pitch but Chris Wheeler said it best, “..that is different!” The Braves, in the Schuerholz era, have been known for their propensity to develop young players and Blanco is no different. He has not posted superstar-caliber numbers but has filled in nicely. In 49 games he has a .269/.379/.343 slash line. His hits have mostly been singles but he does have 5 2B, 1 3B, and 1 HR.

His .354 BABIP looks quite high but actually comes in a bit low when stacked up next to his gaudy 27.2% LD rate. He has been in a slump lately, going just 5 for his last 34, but he has hit a ton of line drives this year. His K% suggests he might not be able to sustain his current performance level but his LD rate argues it should be a bit better. Only time will tell what lies in store for “Blankman” (his nickname, not the Damon Wayans film) but at least he won’t have to deal with the evil Shooter McGavin, no matter how ridiculous that swing looked.

FanGraphs now has Win Probability statistics for 1974 onward, with the exception of 1999. They are also now park adjusted with the exception of this current year. I’m working on that.

Roger Clemens leads all pitchers in WPA with 75 wins. Greg Maddux is second with 55 wins.

Barry Bonds leads all batters in WPA with 124 wins. The next best batter is Rickey Henderson with 67 wins.